[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mixum

@ryanhanrahan: GFS... from blizzard to flurries on today's runs. That's why we don't pay much attention to op runs 5+ days out! #FirstAlertCT

Wow Sunday will be fine now lol

You need to re-read that a few more times before understanding it. He's saying YOU CANNOT take each run and think that's the solution. He's explaining its so changeable right now and we shouldnt pay attention to them.. hence why I didn't want to bring it up yet!

[Cambium]

Moving onto tomorrow.
Here's the latest Hi-res NAM for PType at 2, 4, 6, and 11am

It says snow moves into CT at 2am. Sleet moves in at 4am. Stays sleet at 6am and reaches central CT, Ice moves in before 11am. Notice Litchfield and northern CT stay snow for longer time.
This is a Hi res model so it picks up the elevations better

[GregW]

This looks like the kind of winter we had when we were in college in 1968. Nice to see it back.

[kidyankee764]

Ugh.

Snow > ice.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Moving onto tomorrow.
Here's the latest Hi-res NAM for PType at 2, 4, 6, and 11am

It says snow moves into CT at 2am. Sleet moves in at 4am. Stays sleet at 6am and reaches central CT, Ice moves in before 11am. Notice Litchfield and northern CT stay snow for longer time.
This is a Hi res model so it picks up the elevations better

My guess is nobody in CT sees more than 6 inches from this. Ice is the bigger issue now.

[Brian26]

Models are in pretty good agreement. Looks like 4-6 most of CT with lesser amounts along the shoreline. We get a good thump of a few inches once the snow starts tonight after midnight and then it changes over to sleet and freezing rain in the morning. NWS New York AFD explains it perfectly and also mentions there is some uncertainty.





THIS SCENARIO PRESENTS A CHALLENGING FORECAST...WITH THE NEAR- SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROFILE BEING A KEY FACTOR FOR THE RESULTANT PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STARTING OFF...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR WIDESPREAD / HEAVIER SNOW STARTING AROUND 5-8Z. AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH PAST EVENTS OF THIS NATURE...THE SNOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAA/BETTER FORCING MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT OF GOOD ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH 2-4 INCHES BEING THE MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATION AROUND THE NYC METRO BEFORE 12Z...AND HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE NW ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON.

WHAT SEEMS MOST CERTAIN IS THAT THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD S/SW FLOW ABOVE 900 MB...WHICH WILL QUICKLY WARM THESE LEVELS ABOVE 0 C AFTER 12Z OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THAT PROGRESSES GENERALLY FROM S TO N ACROSS THE CWA. THE TOUGHEST ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST IS HOW WARM THE NEAR-SFC TEMPS BECOME. ALTHOUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND 12Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED A WARMING TREND...STILL BELIEVE NEAR-FREEZING SFC TEMPS WILL HOLD ON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS THINKING IS BASED UPON MOST GUIDANCE WET BULB TEMPS BEING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...THE EXPECTATION FOR MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY PRECIP...AND THE SFC WIND TRAJECTORY NEVER GOING SOUTH OF 070 OR SO ACROSS LONG ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY...THE 18Z NAM TRENDED SOMEWHAT COLDER AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING (OUTSIDE OF THE EXTREME NW INTERIOR)...SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE EXTENDING FROM NE NJ...ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND ALONG NORTHERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. TO THE NW OF THIS LINE...EXPECT A HIGHER ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...BUT THIS MAY BE HELD BACK SOME BY MIXING WITH SLEET. ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...DO SEE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP BOTH SNOWFALL AND ICING TO LOWER AMOUNTS. WITH ALL THIS SAID...ADDED SOUTHERN NASSAU TO THE WSW AND KEPT THE REST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THE SAME. A LARGE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THE ACCUMULATION FORECASTS IS THAT MORE SLEET MIXED IN WILL RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCRETION TOTALS. ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE PRECIP CHANGES. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL SNOW/SLEET AND THEN ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CREATE A VERY TREACHEROUS MORNING...AND POTENTIALLY EVENING...COMMUTE ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE.

THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE BEING POSSIBLE NEAR THE END. ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE COLUMN COOLS ONCE AGAIN...IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO ACHIEVE AS SATURATION IN THE -10 TO -20 C ZONE IS LOST.

[markfromct]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Since some folks are trying to spread more rumors without facts to back it up I feel this is necessary to say... I didn't even want to touch on Sundays storm yet, how about we deal with 1 storm at a time?

Sunday's storm is 5-6 days away, if you're watching the models watch for trends. THEY ARE NOT A FORECAST! Just because 1 day, 1 run shows 1 thing doesn't mean that's what will happen!

With that said... Sunday-Monday snowfall is still there. I will repeat again... there is no historic storm coming to us. Not even a Big storm...

To keep this simple... Green above the blue dotted line is snow. It could be a high ratio event so not a lot of liquid can mean a lot of snow. GFS is the closet to the coast with the most snow. Euro still has it. Canadian still has it.

The most important fact I can tell you is... what happens tomorrow will dictate what will happen with Sunday Storm!

That's why we cant look at the details yet... just the trends. Storm still there. Can it be less impact? Sure. Can it be more. Sure. But to keep reading its a fish storm or a bust is getting irritating now since it's providing false inaccurate information

Well you predicted double digit accumulations for Sunday on your first post..Double digit snow in the works for Tuesday night & Wednesday, and again Sunday.

[Stylo]

The big key is when do we hit above freezing?

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

Lower snow numbers across the board now..ice concern increases.

Channel 2 NYC is even suggesting on its map that it becomes plain rain by mid morning in NYC and LI and late morning on the CT coast. Not sure I buy into that yet.

Noticed a lot more Hartford area school closings and one in northern Westchester. Also noticed in NJ and LI a lot of delayed openings declared for tomorrow (maybe they assume just rain and no icy roads by mid-morning?)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by markfromct

Well you predicted double digit accumulations for Sunday on your first post..Double digit snow in the works for Tuesday night & Wednesday, and again Sunday.

Yup, and Litchfield and northern CT could still get that as well as outside the border where one might travel to and from. Take a look at our trustworthy National weather service snow totals in that same post.

Here's what Boston STILL thinks.
NWS Taunton, MA - KBOX - Storm Total Snowfall Graphic

There is enough liquid with this storm to produce these numbers IF you stay all snow.