[JayCT]

Originally Posted by JGBigGreen

The link was helpful to see what other projects are being considered. It is illustrative that most states are looking at limited amounts of tolls which could be easily avoided by residents while CT is going to ensure its residents have little/no choice but to pay to drive where they need to go.



I also, again, question the validity of the numbers provided on out of state vs in state figures. Just a little research into CDM Smith shows they have a spotty record on the accuracy of their revenue projections. And they, like the company in the link from Jay, have a vested interest in tolls being implemented.



I'm also not against tolls but the sheer number being proposed becomes just another financial burden on CT residents. (Thankfully, I'm moving to a state where I only have to pay a toll if I want to drive on an express lane so they won't impact me at all.)

CDM Smith is one of the most highly respected transportation engineering firms in the world. It was founded by Wilbur Smith in New Haven. It has worked on some of the largest and most prestigious transportation projects in the world. I am not sure where you heard about them having a “spotty record”. Like anything, they are trying to predict the future. Can you predict the stock market? How about real estate prices? Given how highly variable traffic can be, they are known to be very reliable statistically. Jay

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Meh. For the number of miles I drive on Connecticut interstate highways per year, it's chump change. I probably do 2,500 miles a year. Even if it's all peak, that is only $200. The people who get hosed are the commuters. I used to pay the NH Hampton toll ~10 times per week. Even with the 30% NH transponder discount or the old toll tokens before EZ Pass, that's a bunch of money.



I doubt I buy $100 worth of fuel per year in Connecticut. I use GasBuddy on my iPhone. Connecticut never has the lowest cost fuel on my route of travel. Similarly, Amazon Prime always delivers to one of my places rather than to my girlfriend's CT address. CT doesn't get my sales tax money.



Like I said, I pay plenty of Federal gasoline taxes. Connecticut has been getting their share of that. When the tolls go in, that big pile of Federal money goes away forever.

You pay no more or less Federal gas tax than Connecticut residents do yet we pay tolls on your and other state’s roads. Out of state residents however only pay for the roads if they buy gas and that is statistically not many. How is that fair? Jay

[JGBigGreen]

I said spotty record on their toll revenue predictions. Just a few easily found examples:


Indiana Toll Road: Smith predicted a 22% traffic increase in first 7 years. Traffic decreased 11% in eight years.



Greenville, SC Toll estimate: toll road only saw between 33-50% of the traffic predicted by Smith.


Orange County: Overestimated traffic by 40% on initial study and then 20% when they were given another shot.



Dulles Toll Road: One study showed that Smith's forecasted revenue may have been over 100% too high.



This same record of overestimating toll revenue applies across the three companies that do this sort of prediction. I cannot predict the stock market but people do make a living attempting to do that. If they were off by the types of numbers above I doubt they would be hired to continue providing that kind of service. I don't find the kinds of numbers listed above to be reliable statistically. Add in the fact that these firms often have vested interests in having tolling approved and I can understand WHY they provide overly optimistic predictions. What I don't understand is they the government listens to them.

Originally Posted by JayCT

CDM Smith is one of the most highly respected transportation engineering firms in the world. It was founded by Wilbur Smith in New Haven. It has worked on some of the largest and most prestigious transportation projects in the world. I am not sure where you heard about them having a “spotty record”. Like anything, they are trying to predict the future. Can you predict the stock market? How about real estate prices? Given how highly variable traffic can be, they are known to be very reliable statistically. Jay

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by JGBigGreen

I said spotty record on their toll revenue predictions. Just a few easily found examples:


Indiana Toll Road: Smith predicted a 22% traffic increase in first 7 years. Traffic decreased 11% in eight years.



Greenville, SC Toll estimate: toll road only saw between 33-50% of the traffic predicted by Smith.


Orange County: Overestimated traffic by 40% on initial study and then 20% when they were given another shot.



Dulles Toll Road: One study showed that Smith's forecasted revenue may have been over 100% too high.



This same record of overestimating toll revenue applies across the three companies that do this sort of prediction. I cannot predict the stock market but people do make a living attempting to do that. If they were off by the types of numbers above I doubt they would be hired to continue providing that kind of service. I don't find the kinds of numbers listed above to be reliable statistically. Add in the fact that these firms often have vested interests in having tolling approved and I can understand WHY they provide overly optimistic predictions. What I don't understand is they the government listens to them.

Once again please link your sources. It is hard to comment on them without knowing your sources or what they are actually saying. So you know, traffic projections are usually made for 20 year periods and not on opening day. In Connecticut’s case we know how much traffic is on the highways being tolled so it is not like we are starting from zero. Traffic may drop slightly when tolls are added but it is certainly not like it will be off by the numbers you are citing. Where is the traffic going to go? It won’t just disappear. I would also be interested to know what other firms you are saying do this. There are more than just three. Please give more information. Jay

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by JayCT

No, IBTTA is a worldwide professional organization for the owners and operators of toll facilities. They are a non-profit organization, not a company that profits from tolls. Below is their purpose statement:

The International Bridge, Tunnel & Turnpike Association (IBTTA) is the worldwide association for the owners and operators of toll facilities and the businesses that serve them. Founded in 1932, IBTTA has members in 26 countries on six continents. Through advocacy, thought leadership and education, members are implementing state-of-the-art, innovative user-based transportation financing solutions to address the critical infrastructure challenges of the 21st Century

The article reported on 12 states considering tolls. It does not really offer commentary on what states are doing. It just lists them. Oregon seems to be the furthest along with plans to implement tolls on I-5 and I-205.

https://www.oregonlive.com/commuting...n-to-feds.html

Lamont is talking about lowering the gas tax as a compromise but until a formal proposal is presented we won’t know what that is. The point though is to increase revenue so we can pay for several billion dollars worth of major projects over the next 20 to 30 years. If significant cuts are made to the gas tax, there won’t be enough money available to build them. Jay

Of course they have a vested interest. If tolls didn’t exist, neither would they.

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Of course they have a vested interest. If tolls didn’t exist, neither would they.

You said they were a company that owned and operated tolls. They are not. As I pointed out, the article referenced did not advocate or offer an opinion on anything. It said which states were actively looking at tolls. That is fact. It does not change anything the article says. Jay

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by JayCT

You said they were a company that owned and operated tolls. They are not. As I pointed out, the article referenced did not advocate or offer an opinion on anything. It said which states were actively looking at tolls. That is fact. It does not change anything the article says. Jay

Right, but even so, they still have a vested interest in the existence of tolls. I would be weary of their facts. JMO.

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Right, but even so, they still have a vested interest in the existence of tolls. I would be weary of their facts. JMO.

Are you saying those states aren’t looking at tolls? If you doubt these facts then feel free to google them yourself. It will show that those states are actively looking at tolls. Jay

[JGBigGreen]

Exactly! From the their own website:

IBTTA is THE advocate for the toll industry.
IBTTA’s government affairs and advocacy efforts are focused on educating public officials and elected representatives. Our objective is to create a political environment that fosters the growth and widespread adoption of tolling as a viable means to fund and finance surface transportation. Working closely with our members and with like-minded partner organizations, IBTTA develops policies and position papers, meets with legislators, delivers Congressional testimony, builds advocacy coalitions and supports state and local efforts to build broader support for user financing. Outside of the United States, IBTTA and l’Association Européenne des Concessionaires d’Autoroutes et d’ouvrages à Péage (ASECAP) adopted a Joint Tolling Declaration that recognizes tolling as the best tool to finance, build, maintain and improve safe, smart, reliable highway infrastructure for the benefit of road users

They have a clear bias. Doesn’t mean everything they put out is wrong but it is foolish to pretend they aren’t biased.

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Right, but even so, they still have a vested interest in the existence of tolls. I would be weary of their facts. JMO.

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by JayCT

Are you saying those states aren’t looking at tolls? If you doubt these facts then feel free to google them yourself. It will show that those states are actively looking at tolls. Jay

What I’m saying is what I posted earlier:

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

You are correct that many states are considering toll roads - however after some research, the majority of them are just adding toll lanes or are tolling freeways that pass through the state without much local traffic on them. Since Connecticut is part of the dense Northeast, they do not have the option to add toll lanes nor do they have a pass through freeway without much local traffic.

Nobody said they weren’t looking at tolls, but if you dig a bit deeper, you’ll see much of them are toll lanes or on rural stretches used mostly by pass through motorists. While a toll is a toll, the effect on residents will be very different than in CT.

That organization above wouldn’t exist if there weren’t tolls, so of course what they present should be considered carefully.