[Cambium]

Lowest temp of the season here at 22° so far. Teens in New England.

20s in Georgia & SC. 30s in Northern Florida.

Snow flurries and showers around in PA and NJ hills. No station reporting anything.



Yesterdays actual Max temps

[Cambium]

Next week's Storm Update.. As usual wide range of solutions per models but the potential for "a storm" is there. Don't know where, don't know exactly when

WFO Discussions

NWS NY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
701 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS UNCERTAIN...BUT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH
A BLOCKY REGIME DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES...AND ALSO IF THE
NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES IN THE EAST PER 12Z ECMWF.

NWS Boston

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
651 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL SPIN UP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF/LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST BRINGING RAIN TO OUR REGION. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING
THIS RUN AND COMPARED TO OTHER RUNS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONSET OF PCPN IN OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING RAIN AND SNOW LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DETAILS WILL LIKELY SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

NWS Philly

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SUNDAY...BUT THEN QUICKLY YIELDS TO LOW
PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE NOT YET IN
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Cambium]

8am Radar and winds at mid levels. Some flurries/showers around this morning.

[Cambium]

Not sure why the comparison to Great Lakes unless just for a wow factor.

Also note the "fire" which is contributing to you know what.. Pacific is on fire. El Nino wearing down now and has peaked so the waters will cool down. Maybe even La Nina next year.

One thing I have experienced is the fact that we typically get big storms during a transition especially from El Nino.

GFS still has the Dec 4th period storm.

https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8/s...26498977234944

[Cambium]

6am EST temps. We really need to get rid of that NYC LaGuardia station. Ridiculous.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

6am EST temps. We really need to get rid of that NYC LaGuardia station. Ridiculous.

At least this go around Provincetown/Cape Cod was showing the same ridiculous temp.....

[Cambium]

Will post this here too for easy access for me to look back on.

Typically with a quiet sun the stratosphere warms up. When the Stratosphere warms up you get a Polar Vortex to weaken and start moving around. It hasn't yet. Even with a quiet sun, The Stratosphere is near record cold levels. This means the Vortex has strengthened at the Pole but has not weakened and broken off. And the AO and NAO has been positive as a reflection..

I Wonder if the years it took time to actually strengthen at the Pole and then finally split and move down to N. America or Europe if those winters were brutally cold. Or does it need to be weak and move around early enough in the season (like November) to really get a long cold winter... Last year the Stratosphere didn't start warming until January and that's when the Vortex started dropping into Canada.

Looking ahead the Polar Jet is just having a hard time staying in the U.S, a sign that its weak and all we get is ups and downs with temps and only cold mornings with radiational cooling, not with the air masses themselves.


" Here is a quick solar update on Tuesday morning. Solar activity declined to very low levels. Regions 2454 and 2457 gradually decayed during the past day and are now both a much smaller threat for moderate solar flares. Elsewhere, region 2456 is now a spotless plage as it approaches the west limb. Region 2458 did expand somewhat, but is not yet considered a major threat for noteworthy solar flares. What remains of old region 2443 is now beginning to turn into view off the east limb. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the past 24 hours. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery."

SOLARHAM.com | Solar Cycle 24 | Space Weather and Amateur Radio Website





Stratosphere at record cold levels.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/70mb9065.png

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Will post this here too for easy access for me to look back on.

Typically with a quiet sun the stratosphere warms up. When the Stratosphere warms up you get a Polar Vortex to weaken and start moving around. It hasn't yet. Even with a quiet sun, The Stratosphere is near record cold levels. This means the Vortex has strengthened at the Pole but has not weakened and broken off. And the AO and NAO has been positive as a reflection..

I Wonder if the years it took time to actually strengthen at the Pole and then finally split and move down to N. America or Europe if those winters were brutally cold. Or does it need to be weak and move around early enough in the season (like November) to really get a long cold winter... Last year the Stratosphere didn't start warming until January and that's when the Vortex started dropping into Canada.

Looking ahead the Polar Jet is just having a hard time staying in the U.S, a sign that its weak and all we get is ups and downs with temps and only cold mornings with radiational cooling, not with the air masses themselves.


" Here is a quick solar update on Tuesday morning. Solar activity declined to very low levels. Regions 2454 and 2457 gradually decayed during the past day and are now both a much smaller threat for moderate solar flares. Elsewhere, region 2456 is now a spotless plage as it approaches the west limb. Region 2458 did expand somewhat, but is not yet considered a major threat for noteworthy solar flares. What remains of old region 2443 is now beginning to turn into view off the east limb. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the past 24 hours. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery."

SOLARHAM.com | Solar Cycle 24 | Space Weather and Amateur Radio Website





Stratosphere at record cold levels.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/70mb9065.png

If I have read the stuff on this in the past right, a "quiet sun" means colder weather. There's been some evidence of this, supposedly the "Little Ice Age" of the 1600s to 1800s was caused by this. It's a good example of where climate is more complicated than simply "you know what". Some say the quiet sun is causing our recent colder weather.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

If I have read the stuff on this in the past right, a "quiet sun" means colder weather. There's been some evidence of this, supposedly the "Little Ice Age" of the 1600s to 1800s was caused by this. It's a good example of where climate is more complicated than simply "you know what". Some say the quiet sun is causing our recent colder weather.

Without getting into the Physics of it, because I wouldn't be able to explain it like a scientist, the simple way to think about it is, a Quiet Sun warms the Stratosphere and because warm air cant expand into space it starts compressing towards Earth. The compressing leads to a cooler surface because the cold air is now more contracted and forced to the surface. Sounds too simple. lol

Anyway .. Here's some cool links...

NASA/Marshall Solar Physics

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14, which had a maximum smoothed sunspot number V2.0 of 107.2 in February of 1906

[Cambium]

And FYI... The Latest prediction from NASA is now lower.

Note that Cycle 24’s peak (today) is lower than Cycle 23’s peak.

And Did you know this is what they said a decade ago?

"Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one. Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 “looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago,” says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco."

So what actually happened?

Instead of being “one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began,” it turns out that solar cycle 24 is the weakest solar cycle in more than 200 years.

And just like the Global temp hockey stick projection that turned out wrong, How the Frig is it legal to still make predictions like this years and decades away and put fear into everyones minds?? #agendas

here's what they thought it would look like.