03-19-2016, 11:25 AM
123 posts, read
95,891 times
Reputation: 62
And this will put a nice bow on what has been a extremely disappointing winter. Can't remember a winter this lame. Hopefully the spring and summer are cold for payback.
03-19-2016, 12:02 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read
75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
03-19-2016, 12:09 PM
10,007 posts, read
11,158,193 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
But its not a bust to me...a bust is when a day before we have a model agreement and solid forecast and it never happens.
Until track forecasting is better , everything before 3 days out is just dreamland.
03-19-2016, 12:14 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read
75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by
jp03
But its not a bust to me...a bust is when a day before we have a model agreement and solid forecast and it never happens.
I agree, I think 12-36hrs should be the criteria of a bust. Before that its always said "it can change "
How about a bust too low?
Couple models showing a little more snow for Eastern CT now. Lol
https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/st...54104664883200
03-19-2016, 12:17 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read
75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
03-19-2016, 12:19 PM
10,007 posts, read
11,158,193 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Ironically if the storm moved more west NOW..would that be a bust? That's a good point.
I guess from an individual forecast perspective, once the service has put out a snow total map, that is what they should be held to. If they are smart they would hold off till like you said about 36 hours before.
03-19-2016, 02:37 PM
Location: Birch Mt - CT
385 posts, read
363,254 times
Reputation: 355
The NWS is discounting the CMC and NAM as outliers. As they say in their Scientific discussion, "it is not always wise to
03-19-2016, 03:19 PM
214 posts, read
180,350 times
Reputation: 336
I am in Moodus/Colchester area and got an alert on my phone for 4-7 inches? Do you think that will happen?
03-19-2016, 03:42 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,513 posts, read
75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by
markfromct
The NWS is discounting the CMC and NAM as outliers. As they say in their Scientific discussion, "it is not always wise to
100% agree. Only thing that could change is the edges. All storms wobble and shift as they move so there could be surprises for come in CT or central MA.
Looks like it was NWS Boston that said that.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
420 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SNOWFALL FORECAST REMAINS AT A MODERATE CONFIDENCE
* POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
* WET SNOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES/DOWNED TREE LIMBS
* ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...A PERIOD OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SUN NIGHT BUT GENERALLY NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVERALL...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE A DIFFICULT...NUANCED FORECAST. 19/12Z
GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT...ENDING THEIR TREND
FOR A MORE OFFSHORE STORM. WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE NOW
AGREES ON A TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...THERE
ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES TO BE WORKED OUT. SINCE THIS IS A LATE
WINTER/EARLY SPRING STORM...OUR SNOWFALL WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IF IT
FALLS MAINLY AT NIGHT.
19/12Z
NAM LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER ...WITH A VERY DEEP LOW PRESSURE
AND MUCH SLOWER TIMING. THE
CMC ALSO LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER ...
TAKING ITS LOW TRACK WELL WEST...THEN CATCHING UP WITH THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE COURSE...SO THESE SOURCES BECAME MOST OF THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST . AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...
IT IS NOT ALWAYS WISE TO SWING THE FORECAST WITH EACH MODEL RUN. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
SUBTLY TREND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
1. SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WET SNOW POTENTIAL...
EXCELLENT BANDING SIGNATURE WITHIN THE 19/12Z GUIDANCE. PRESENTLY
THINKING THIS BANDING WILL REACH SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY BETWEEN THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE CAPE COD CANAL. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THIS BAND TO TRACK FARTHER WEST...BUT IT IS DIMINISHING WITH TIME.
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS EASTERN MA INTO RI.
A CONCERN WILL BE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS NANTUCKET....THE VINEYARD AND
BLOCK ISLAND. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 40S. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME SIGNALS...PARTICULARLY FOR NANTUCKET...OF 925 MB AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSE TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
A
SLIGHT EASTWARD JOG OF ONLY 25 MILES OF SO WOULD KEEP THE ISLANDS
COMPLETELY WITHIN THE COLDER AIR...AND INCREASE SNOW TOTALS.
DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WATCH AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. AN ARGUMENT
COULD BE MADE TO EXPAND IT BACK INTO ESSEX COUNTY...AND PERHAPS
BLOCK ISLAND. JUST
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WARNING-LEVEL
SNOWFALL FOR THOSE AREAS TO DO SO.
2. ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS...STILL APPEARS THE RISK OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SNOW OUTSIDE OF I-495. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE EXACTLY THE WESTERN EDGE WILL BE. NOT
EXPECTING A MAJOR SNOWFALL. THAT SAID...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CT AND CENTRAL MA.
3. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND THE NEED FOR WIND
HEADLINES REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS. IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF WET SNOW ARE REALIZED...THAT COULD RESULT IN
MORE TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
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Geographical mobility - Same house 1 year ago (%)
Geographical mobility - Moved within same county (%)
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Place of birth - Born in state of residence (%)
Place of birth - Born in other state (%)
Place of birth - Native, outside of US (%)
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
Housing units in structures - 1, attached (%)
Housing units in structures - 2 (%)
Housing units in structures - 3 or 4 (%)
Housing units in structures - 5 to 9 (%)
Housing units in structures - 10 to 19 (%)
Housing units in structures - 20 to 49 (%)
Housing units in structures - 50 or more (%)
Housing units in structures - Mobile home (%)
Housing units in structures - Boat, RV, van, etc. (%)
House/condo owner moved in on average (years ago)
Renter moved in on average (years ago)
Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1999 to March 2000 (%)
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Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1970 to 1979 (%)
Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1969 or earlier (%)
Means of transportation to work - Drove car alone (%)
Means of transportation to work - Carpooled (%)
Means of transportation to work - Public transportation (%)
Means of transportation to work - Bus or trolley bus (%)
Means of transportation to work - Streetcar or trolley car (%)
Means of transportation to work - Subway or elevated (%)
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Working at home (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Food preparation and serving related occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Personal care and service occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Sales and office occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Sales and related occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Office and administrative support occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Construction and extraction occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Production, transportation, and material moving occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Production occupations (%)
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People in Group quarters - Institutionalized population (%)
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People in Group quarters - Local jails and other confinement facilities (including police lockups) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military disciplinary barracks (%)
People in Group quarters - State prisons (%)
People in Group quarters - Other types of correctional institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Nursing homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards, hospices, and schools for the handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards and hospices for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospices or homes for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Military hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Other hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals or wards for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Mental (Psychiatric) hospitals or wards (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the blind (%)
People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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