[Cambium]

Originally Posted by mels

I'm usually a snow lover but now I'm ready for Soring. I'm glad this weekend looks like a swing and a miss for snow.

I am so worried that we wont have enough spring again. Last year we only had like 30 days with Highs from 50-65 or something. Jumped right to summer in May. Ugh. So while I agree with you about ready for Spring, I say keep this pattern going till March next year. lol

Originally Posted by grecostimpy

My wife just sent me a message that it is hailing in Trumbull right now. Weirdest. April. Ever.

Almost guaranteed that is sleet, not hail. It's cold enough 2000 feet above our heads and theres not enough lift happening for it to be hail. But thanks, interesting!


I was just outside and I'm like, wow it feels like winter! crazy.

========================


April 9, 2016 Snow Event...

Think it wont snow in NYC and CT? Well......

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016


SUBTLE...BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SATURDAY. JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE 08/00Z GUIDANCE STARTS WITH A
CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ERIE AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE THEN SWINGS THIS LOW
PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH HAS A TRACK
JUST FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GRAZE THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.


HAVE SEEN THIS GAME PLAYED MANY TIMES THIS PAST WINTER...ONLY TO
HAVE THE LOW TRACK COME NORTH WITH LATER GUIDANCE. SO NOT YET
READY TO DRY THE FORECAST OUT COMPLETELY. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE
THOUGH IN DRIER WEATHER NORTH OF I-90.

Area Discussions

[jp03]

Originally Posted by mels

I'm usually a snow lover but now I'm ready for Soring. I'm glad this weekend looks like a swing and a miss for snow.

Exactly...I love snow too..in WINTER. Bring on the warmer weather.

[Cambium]

New NAM12z model out. Don't knock the NAM. It's been right before.


6-9" across PA and into NJ. 2-6" around NYC. This factors in ratios. Must be a wall up in Greenwich.


It's April, do I need to see snow "south" of us??

[Cambium]

Discussion below not for our area but State College mentions what I said the other day...


It's going to be a Wet Snow with Ratios 6-8:1, but If rates are heavy enough, it will accumulate faster. Nobody knows where that heavy band will set up!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016

TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MDT TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
SNOW POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED AREA FOR UPSLOPE AND FGEN
BANDS THAT ARE TARGETING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND AREAS TO THE
EAST BOUNDED BY I-80 AND I-81.


COLLABORATED TO WPC WINTER DESK AND SURROUNDING WFOS TO ARRIVE AT
THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW...TO SEVERAL INCHES FOR THE DAY 2
PERIOD. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE POSTED FOR OUR NW MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS /04Z -20Z SATURDAY/ WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1)
UPSLOPE...2) POSS FGEN BANDING JUST NORTH OF THE COMPACT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES...3) HIGHER TERRAIN...AND 4) A GREATER
PERCENTAGE OF THE EVENT OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WILL
ALL FAVOR MORE SNOW IN THESE AREAS. ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN AND
POINTS EAST...THE LATER ONSET OF THE PRECIP WITH THE BULK OF IT
OCCURRING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY FAVORS MUCH LOWER
SNOW/WATER RATIOS OF PERHAPS 6-8:1. ONLY IF WE SEE A FEW HOUR
PERIOD OF SIGNIF SNOWFALL /RATES/ OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
WILL THE LIKELIHOOD OF GRTN 2 INCHES DEVELOP. THE HIGH APRIL SUN
ANGLE AND TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S EAST OF THE I99/RT 220
CORRIDOR WILL DO A GOOD JOB ON COMPACTING/MELTING THE SNOW WITHOUT
SIGNIF /RATES/ DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

Here is what NWS NY says... Same thing... only where that heavy band sets up is there a concern for Accumulating snow. But with models still all over the place your forecasts can change they said. I don't think this is a big deal for most of CT. We'll see.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016


UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
STORM...WITH THE GFS BEING THE DEEPEST...FURTHEST N AS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE THE NAM IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT PERHAPS A BIT TOO SLOW. THE UKMET/CMC AND ECMWF
CLUSTER BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS. EVEN THOUGH THESE ARE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES THEY COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP. THIS
WILL BE KEY AND IF IT ENDS UP EXTENDING OVER THE AREA AS THE 00Z
GFS DEPICTS...THERE COULD BE MORE SNOW DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
REST OF MODELS KEEP THIS BAND TO THE S AND HAVE GONE ALONG WITH
THIS IDEA.

SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO FALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS IN EARLY APRIL...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH ACCUMULATING
SNOW ANYWHERE OTHER THAN WHERE THE BAND DEVELOPS. IF ANY DOES
OCCUR WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AS THE LOW IS PULLING
AWAY AND COLDER AIR IS FILTERING IN. LOCATIONS WELL INLAND COULD
ALSO START WITH LIGHT SNOW BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. ONLY LOOKING AT UP TO AN INCH AT MOST
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.

[RunD1987]

Mid 60's next week!!!

[Cambium]

For next week... No warmth yet as another dig comes back but wont be nearly as cold as this weekend. Probably just upper 40s/low 50s mid week. After that... time to think Spring. lol


NWS Boston

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016

YET ANOTHER ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO GREENLAND MID NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PUT NEW ENGLAND BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUES-THURS


WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE HOLD KEEPING TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS BUT ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD.

[Cambium]

Current temps and Map. Feels like December outside here. Wood stove cranking.


Snowing on top of Mt Greylock in MA and scattered snow all over NY state. Scattered drizzle over CT

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

Well I'd call that pretty damn rare

Exactly and that was my original point.......my 'backtrack' of sorts was on any snow (i.e. a trace/non measurable)

By the way, I'm in Danbury right now and like the others on here it feels a lot colder than I expected.....wasnt it supposed to be in the low 50s today?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by grecostimpy

My wife just sent me a message that it is hailing in Trumbull right now. Weirdest. April. Ever.

Back to this... Hmmm. An interesting debate on that... Posting a tweet conversation between a few guys.. 4 are meteos (Ryan, Steve, Matt & Racheal).


I was flat out wrong!! Didn't even realize there was no warm layer aloft to melt the snow and refreeze back to sleet. So its not sleet! I say its Graupel though not hail.

Ben: brief hail in Brooklyn, ny


Steve: Sleet


Ben: almost positive it was hail. Was small but still larger than sleet


Steve: almost positive it was hail. Was small but still larger than sleet


Ryan: It's hail... not sleet. There's no >0c warm layer. A bit of elevated CAPE, dry boundary layer, and low wbz.


Bill: Agreed, saw it myself. Not a sleet environment. It was 44° at the surface too


Steve: It is sleet


Ryan: Yeah... no. Here's the HRRR sounding from LGA. That ain't sleet bro.







Bill: I saw the clouds too! Very convective and dark. It was hail. Again, I saw it with my own eyes. Very soft hail


Steve: This is the first time I have heard hail being described as soft. Lol


Bill: How would describe hail that doesn't "ping" but "smushes" on impact? "Soft hail"


Bobby: graupel


Bill: I thought graupel too. Rimed over hail. I know what it wasn't....snow


Matt: lol at people arguing sleet vs. hail in the Northeast today. This is the furthest thing from a sleet sounding ever.





Rachael: Bahaha!! Just read through everything. Thanks for the entertainment. Team @ryanhanrahan always.

Mike: Ice pellets, graupel, soft hail all fit much better than sleet.


Matt: Yes. Graupel is happening also.

Chris: Video: Nice hail 1024am Milford Ct

[WouldLoveTo]

Originally Posted by Cambium

For period of April 2 to April 7 it was the 3rd coldest for Hartford. Only 2 other yrs were colder in 111yrs of records. Impressive for early April.


Providence was 4th coldest. I quickly checked BOS, NYC, Richmond, and Philly and they weren't too impressive but still Top 15.

BRRRRRRR So how were summers in those prior cold April years?