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Old 01-27-2017, 04:42 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619

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Past 11 days we've had low temps around what the normal max is for this time of year. Clouds had large part reason for that.

2 noteworthy warm spells this month. It felt great I have to admit. I liked the warm mornings!


Last time we had a normal low temp was January 16th


All changing now with the cold front that came through yesterday. We'll see how long the winter temps lasts now. GFS says next 2 weeks past several runs.



Danbury, CT OBS graph.







Check out Richmond, VA 60s 5 times this month and a 70°.

 
Old 01-27-2017, 05:19 AM
 
Location: South Central CT
223 posts, read 172,469 times
Reputation: 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
NWS NY.

1st one is for Sunday-Monday Jan 29-30.
Next one is for Wednesday Feb 1st

Active week coming with multiple chances of precip and lake effect snows which should reach us anyway.
Nice! NWS Boston has similar mentions:

Don't count Monday out yet. It might be a surprise inch or two:

Quote:
Baroclinic leaf
associated with cold front from the weekend should yield a
transfer of energy from the original clipper to secondary coastal
redevelopment along the front. How close the upper lvl difluence
and stalled front remain to S New England will determine precip
across S New England. Ensemble means suggest POPs should be mainly
focused along the S coast to as far N as the CT/RI border with MA
 
Old 01-28-2017, 04:00 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Not expecting much next 7 days but like yesterday don't be surprised to see flurries and or snow showers that might drop a coating to 2".


4 maps..

The setup: Jet Stream rising in the west, dipping in the East to give us a Canadian flow.





Tonight into Monday Alberta clipper comes down. Misses us to the south.





Tuesday-Wednesday another Alberta clipper. Misses us to the north.





Feb 4-10 Forecast.. Note... When the Sub Tropical Jet stream and Polar Jet stream meet there is a big storm. You typically want to see a rise in the southern Jet in the West so the Polar Jet can dig down in the East.


 
Old 01-28-2017, 04:15 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
I had some on and off flurries yesterday and a cool looking sky.


Interesting that southern CT had clouds and snow from Lake Erie, Northern CT had it from Ontario.


1-5pm Loop yesterday January 27, 2017





Loop 7pm Thursday 26th to 6pm Friday 27th


 
Old 01-29-2017, 04:45 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
February 6, 2017 Storm Update:

Latest Model updates overnight.

GFS STILL has it. (6-10" snow)
Euro lost it (doesn't phase the jets, no precip for us)
Canadian has it (phases late so its rain for us)


How's that for short and sweet?
 
Old 01-29-2017, 05:59 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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I noticed yesterday the NAM had the clipper further north for tomorrow and brought "LIGHT" snows into NYC, Long Island and Southern CT for couple hours.. Thought was a fluke.

But now the GFS more north as well. So the northern precip edge clips southern CT with "LIGHT" snows for couple hours in the morning 7-11am


Watch it... See it? Any little more shift north and could be interesting for NYC, Long Island and Southern CT. Nothing north of Merrit or 84.





NWS Upton: Mentions the north more shift ALSO says if trends north more could mean a period of moderate snow with few inches.

Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
630 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches today and passes through tonight. Low
pressure then passes to our south on Monday, then another low
pressure system passes through Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

The region remains between a strong low pressure center well to the
NE and a strong high center over the Rockies. This will continue the
breezy pattern we`ve seen for the past few days, but today should
have weaker winds.

06z guidance has continued to shift north with a low pressure
system tracking to the south of the region Mon morning indicating
an increasing potential for a light accumulating snow across
NYC/NJ metro and LI Monday morning. This system bears watching
as any farther north shift would bring potential for a period
of moderate snow with a few inches accum across LI/NYC...as
models are signaling good frontogenetic banding
signature
currently just skirting the coast.
 
Old 01-29-2017, 06:15 AM
 
Location: Hartford County, CT
845 posts, read 680,429 times
Reputation: 461
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
February 6, 2017 Storm Update:

Latest Model updates overnight.

GFS STILL has it. (6-10" snow)
Euro lost it (doesn't phase the jets, no precip for us)
Canadian has it (phases late so its rain for us)


How's that for short and sweet?


Great. The ONE time frame I really, really don't want snow.
 
Old 01-29-2017, 06:45 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
7 day Temp departures each week this month

Wow! You don't need glasses to see which week put us in the Top 10 warmest January





Month to date rankings to the 27th. Bridgeport, CT warmest on record. Last 4 days of the month could knock back into 2nd warmest. Hartford 10th warmest.

 
Old 01-29-2017, 07:48 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Will advisories be posted for Southern CT? We'll see. I think they are waiting for todays model updates. Some new updates do miss Long Island completely so the north trend could have been a fluke.



Quote:
324 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 AM MONDAY
UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING BY MIDDAY ON
MONDAY.
Intellicast - Local Weather Forecast, Reports and Maps


Current Advisories and Warnings - AerisWeather

 
Old 01-29-2017, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
February 6, 2017 Storm Update::


Can't believe how consistent the GFS is for February 6th storm! Insane. Granted each run wasn't a snowstorm for same locations but still it has shown "something" for past 5 days!!


Click on that left arrow to see what the previous updates were showing for this specific timeframe which is Monday 1am next week. Notice the timing, location and strength are always different but "something" has been there past 16 runs at least. Crazy.

GFS Model - Tropical Tidbits







Canadian12z update gives us Snow to Rain
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