[East of the River]

The birthrate increases in place like NY and Chicago are mostly among immigrants and new arrivals to the cities. There are a variety of reasons for varying birthrates GDP growth is pretty damn low on the list, it causes some but nowhere near as much as religious and cultural beliefs and education.
Birth rate drop dramatically with income and education

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ome-in-the-us/

[East of the River]

Originally Posted by Henry10

Such studies and liberal policies feed off each other in a closed loop. They are two sides of the same coin.

Notice their silence on the slam-dunk correlation -- birth rate and GDP growth. That's the elephant in the room that they all try to skirt, ignore and pretend it doesn't exist.

Because, if they admitted it, then it would open up a slew of very painful questions -- like, ok, how do we grow economically? More taxes or less taxes? Privatization? Capitalism? etc. etc.

At the Economic Forum we have detailed these issues at depth, getting even into country demographics for example of Sweden, Germany, Canada, Japan, Denmark, etc.




Childcare, affordable housing etc -- these are constant issues all young adults everywhere have consider, and have been doing it for at least few decades. The difference is that someone like yourself in Texas feels a lot more secure to jump than you in CT.

The difference is how economy is doing in TX vs CT. What if you lost your job in CT? Would you replace it right away with another in CT? That has to scare you. But if you had a healthy job market, it would be a different proposition.

Even more pronounced -- if you lived in a much healthier job market (i.e. economy) how would your wife feel to take some time off from work for birth or even more? She is probably scared that she may or may not find the same paying job when she is ready to get back.

A much better market will make these decisions a lot easier -- you'll afford childcare, you'll afford a nice hourse. Your wife may afford to take some time from work, knowing she will find work.

I had to deal with exactly same decisions in CT some years back. My decision was to move. My wife was 5 months pregnant with the first child when I moved from Hartford to NYC. Why? Because I could find work, so I could afford astronomical childcare, housing, schooling. So we had not one, but two kids in NYC, and my wife had to go back for more school, incidentally. Why? Because in my line of work, NYC has a great market.

The percentage of people who figure correctly the economics of children before having them is very low. Those that do tend to have one kid late in life. For most people it's an emotional decision or an accident. People in general are not all that rational. I'm from a well educated family (thou I myself left school early) I had no idea how to pay for my kids when I had any of them. The vast majority of parents in their 20s and 30s I know had the same issue. They figured it out after they had the kid. The people I know who planned it all out in the first place all had one kid after they were 35.

[East of the River]

Originally Posted by Henry10

No, I don't accept it.

Five States with highest Poverty levels:

1- Alabama
2- Louisiana
3- New Mexico
4- Mississippi
5- Kentucky


Five States with highest Birth Rates:

1- Utah
2- Alaska
3- Texas
4- North Dakota
5- South Dakota

Religion figures highly into at least 2 of those. I'd be curious to see the explanation for the Dakotas, my guess is economic growth and rapid population movement do account for some there.

Back to CT, I don't think economic growth is a problem for our birth rates, but it is a problem for retention of workers. Immigration would likely help the birthrate some.

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by Henry10

No, I don't accept it.

Five States with highest Poverty levels:

1- Alabama
2- Louisiana
3- New Mexico
4- Mississippi
5- Kentucky


Five States with highest Birth Rates:

1- Utah
2- Alaska
3- Texas
4- North Dakota
5- South Dakota

And except Alaska, none of the five states are considered to be affluent.

•Massachusetts. Median household income: $62,859. ...
•Connecticut. Median household income: $65,753. ...
•New Jersey. Median household income: $67,458. ...
•Alaska. Median household income: $67,825. ...
•Maryland. Median household income: $70,004. ...

Or educated.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/the-most-...89.html?ref=gs

[beerbeer]

Two surveys by national moving companies found more people are leaving Connecticut than arriving, and the state's outbound migration rate was one of the highest in the country.


United Van Lines said 60 percent of their customers in the state last year were moving out and 40 percent were moving in. Connecticut's outbound rate ranked fourth, topped only by New York, New Jersey and Illinois (63 percent).
The primary reason people were coming to or leaving Connecticut was for work, according to the survey. Of those arriving, 62 percent said it was for a job. Of those leaving, 45 percent said it was work-related. But the survey also found 21 percent of people were leaving the state to retire.


According to the survey, the top destinations for people moving out of Connecticut were Florida, California, Texas, North Carolina and Massachusetts. The company handled a total of 1,849 moves out of the state and 1,228 moves to Connecticut.

[Henry10]

Originally Posted by East of the River

The birthrate increases in place like NY and Chicago are mostly among immigrants and new arrivals to the cities. There are a variety of reasons for varying birthrates GDP growth is pretty damn low on the list, it causes some but nowhere near as much as religious and cultural beliefs and education.
Birth rate drop dramatically with income and education

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ome-in-the-us/

We're talking -- how does birth rate fluctuate in a given state (CT in our case). Given the demographics composition of CT -- what drives the Birth Rate up or down?

From 2000 to 2012 CT's birth rate has declined 14%, which in demographic terms is big. (National Average dropped 8%.)

This is at the time that immigration increased, and more seniors moved out, so the drop would have been higher if immigrants stayed out, and seniors stayed in.

How does education levels or affluence explain this large drop in birth rates? What changed so much from 2000 to 2012?

Originally Posted by East of the River

The percentage of people who figure correctly the economics of children before having them is very low. Those that do tend to have one kid late in life. For most people it's an emotional decision or an accident. People in general are not all that rational. I'm from a well educated family (thou I myself left school early) I had no idea how to pay for my kids when I had any of them. The vast majority of parents in their 20s and 30s I know had the same issue. They figured it out after they had the kid. The people I know who planned it all out in the first place all had one kid after they were 35.

From a personal experience, I agree 100% with this. I got married in CT at 27 because I wanted to. Didn't think it too much. And yes, figured out later how to raise my kids. But economically speaking -- I had the economic confidence that I would get a good-paying job (or business) and afford childcare, homes etc. etc.

The issue is confidence to have kids for young adults -- does the economic condition give them confidence or makes them gun-shy? That's the question.

The only direct correlation I see is that CT birth rate is down because economy sucks. I find no other explanation. Everything else is the same.

Originally Posted by JayCT

And except Alaska, none of the five states are considered to be affluent.

•Massachusetts. Median household income: $62,859. ...
•Connecticut. Median household income: $65,753. ...
•New Jersey. Median household income: $67,458. ...
•Alaska. Median household income: $67,825. ...
•Maryland. Median household income: $70,004. ...

Or educated.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/the-most-...89.html?ref=gs

Other people stated that poorest states have highest birth rates. My list demonstrates that not to be the case.

[East of the River]

The average age in CT has gone up that doesn't help. Looking into the numbers more closely, it seems that most of our decrease in birthrate was from Teen mothers, which is half the national rate. Our rate of over 35 mothers is actually higher then the national average. We lag in the middle ground but are around the same as other states with similar incomes (but higher GDP growth). Like I said before there are many effects on birthrate but growth rate does not seem to be that big of a driver. I would say religion, education and income are better drivers. Looking into the numbers I would say unemployment effects birthrate more then growth does. Which makes sense not having a job will make you more active in life decisions, much more then just your potential income.

[Sigequinox]

Originally Posted by East of the River

Religion figures highly into at least 2 of those. I'd be curious to see the explanation for the Dakotas, my guess is economic growth and rapid population movement do account for some there.

Back to CT, I don't think economic growth is a problem for our birth rates, but it is a problem for retention of workers. Immigration would likely help the birthrate some.

The economy is a huge driver of migration though, which should effect birth rate. If college graduates are moving away for jobs and settling down elsewhere, they will produce even their meager 1 -2 progeny out of state. Their parents are probably done procreating too if they have college grad aged kids, minus a drunken "oopsies". To self propel this problem, those parents eventually retire elsewhere, lowering tax revenue, which then signals the liberal cascade of increasing taxes, making CT even more undesirable and thus greater pressure on outward migration.

[Henry10]

Originally Posted by East of the River

I would say religion, education and income are better drivers.

Are you saying that in CT Religion and Education drove the Birth rate down 15-20% from 2000 to 2012? How?

[Sigequinox]

Originally Posted by East of the River

Religion figures highly into at least 2 of those.

If I was lucky enough (or unlucky enough?) to have 8 wives, the last thing I would do is have proportionate number of children! Imagine a life, where u have 2 kids, but 8 mothers. Ahhhh. Man cave all day long. Someone needs to rewrite the Book of Mormon and then I'll sign right up (I'm looking at YOU Utah).