[Cambium]

Originally Posted by KEVIN_224

7:08 and 4:59...9 hours 51 minutes.

Remember how we were around 4:19 or 4:20 PM a few days before the winter solstice?

Feels better in the morning and I don't mind the 5pm brightness but I wish it never was bright after 6pm.. Mornings are more important for me.

[markfromct]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Feels better in the morning and I don't mind the 5pm brightness but I wish it never was bright after 6pm.. Mornings are more important for me.

I agree. If you have to go to bed early, it's harder to sleep when it's light till 8pm.

Also, stay with Standard time.

[nei]

Originally Posted by markfromct

I agree. If you have to go to bed early, it's harder to sleep when it's light till 8pm.

Also, stay with Standard time.

It'd still be dark by 9 if it's light by 8; do people go to bed before 9?!

[markfromct]

Originally Posted by nei

It'd still be dark by 9 if it's light by 8; do people go to bed before 9?!

The point Im trying to make is that the longer it stays light the harder it is for your body to get ready for sleep. And yeah, when your up at 4am, you go to bed early.

[Cambium]

Whats been the rule of thumb this season? Everything shifts west within 36hrs.

What models are having a hard time with is the little shortwave currently in the Gulf of Alaska. Once that comes on shore we'll have a better idea. Which would be 36hrs before the coastal storm happens.

National Weather Service New York NY
343 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Yet another interesting East Coast Cyclogenesis with potential
rapid intensification event occurs Monday into Tuesday.

Using the AWIPS Ensemble Tool on the 12Z GEFS shows QPF
distribution of near zero to 0.5" each 6 hours on Monday, but
with the median QPF being significantly below the mean. Lighter
PCPN Monday night/Tuesday. The latest operational run of the
ECMWF shows basically a dry Monday with a light wintry PCPN
moving in Monday night into Tuesday - mainly east. A glance
though at the 51 member ECMWF EPS shows high uncertainty in the
track and intensity.

So tracking the uncertainty via the Stony Brook CSTAR research
web site appears to point to a shortwave currently out over the
Pacific (Gulf of Alaska) that sharpens the upper trough once it
reaches the east coast as the source of uncertainty. Not an
atypical situation for east coast cyclogenesis.

Bottom line: While the subjective trends/rule of thumb is for
cyclones to track closer to the coast this far out than shown in
the NWP, I would wait until tomorrow night when the shortwave
moves into the Pacific northwest to see how the NWP consolidates
on a solution before getting too excited. For now, forecasting a
scenario of a light snow event Monday night into Tuesday. Note
that temps on Monday will most likely support more of a liquid
or mix PTYPE. Again - uncertainty is high for this event.

Following the Monday/Tuesday event is another cold front/low
pressure system timed for Friday. The GFS is more intense with
this, but it`s all rain - which is what is currently forecast

[Poseidon3290]

sweeeeeet, tuesday off would be insane! Might be heading to lake placid for Wed - Friday next week!

[Cambium]

Possibly Bigger storm on Friday.

Active

[Poseidon3290]

You are making my night/week!!

[jp03]

Yuch...long term looks slightly colder than normal for March and April. I hope its wrong. February looks slightly colder than normal also..which is fine. Hope we have a nice active pattern with it.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by jp03

Yuch...long term looks slightly colder than normal for March and April. I hope its wrong. February looks slightly colder than normal also..which is fine. Hope we have a nice active pattern with it.

I'm fine with that. I don't want a pattern like 1969, 1974, 1976, 1979, 1986 or 2000 where we effectively had our "summer" in April and May or even May and June. June, July and at least the first half of August need to be summery. In 1976 our peak temperature for the summer and only real heat wave, of three or more days over 90°F was Easter Weekend. 2000's lone heat wave of the summer was ended on May 9, 2000. 1969's late April and most of May featured frequent 80's, and a May 29 high of 97°. Some stations registered an official heat wave. There was one more July heat wave, but the first week of July, and the last two weeks of July were rainy and cool. Woodstock's weather is well known.