[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Just got whipped with a wave. Almost feels like a Fall NorEaster. Actually too humid and warm and winds aren't from the Northeast. But thank Fay for being here because its in the 90s all the way near the Hudson Bay. Feels like 100s in Montreal so we would be torching. THANK YOU FAY!

To give an idea, Buffalo, NY had their 2nd and 3rd highest temperatures ever, 98 and 97 respectively, the last 2 days (they have never been 100). They also have 8 straight days of 90+ degrees (streak expected to end tomorrow, this is their all time record breaking a streak of 7 in 1988). They AVERAGE 3 90+ degree days PER YEAR. Extrapolate the equivalent to that in this region (I would think highs of around 105 and 10 or more straight days over 90)

https://www.wkbw.com/weather/record-...ther-heat-wave

[Cambium]

Rain totals from Tropical Storm Fay:

Most was 1.28" in Winsted. Ridgefield had 1.27".

New Canaan 1.01"
Fairfield 0.30"





North Canton: 1.28"
West Hartford: 0.28"





Look at Rhode Island! lol. When I said less for Eastern CT I didn't think would mean less than 1/10th.

[KEVIN_224]

Maybe because it tracked further west than first expected? I counted only 2/10 inch for Brainard...but just over 2.5 inches for Central Park.

One thing which didn't go away: dew point of 71 at last check.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by KEVIN_224

Maybe because it tracked further west than first expected? I counted only 2/10 inch for Brainard...but just over 2.5 inches for Central Park.

One thing which didn't go away: dew point of 71 at last check.

That's exactly why! CT totals were quite low, but just west of that you are talking about 2-3" of rain. For example, Central Park got 2.54" shattering a record for the date that was set in 1874! Whereas just 50 miles away, Bridgeport only had 0.29". On the other hand, those east of the storm got the winds, which while hardly "catastropic" (any power outages in CT? In Westchester I think it was just 3500 customers) were on the bare end of tropical storm force in the Greenwich/Stamford area and just below that in Bridgeport.

[Solstodur]

Popups nearby

[Cambium]

Rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Fay 2020.


I missed the 1"+ totals not by much. There is ALWAYS someone who misses the big totals by miles. Snowstorms too.

Delaware & Southern NJ were in the jackpot zones with 3-6"

Source:



Max Wind gusts. Mostly at the shoreline of course. Greenwich Point is on here.

[Cambium]

Big Big changes this week. Was supposed to be upper 80s and 90s after today... boy this made me happy...

Doesnt mean we cant get rain storms and humid though.





KEY WORDS....DROPS SOUTH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
202 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front approaches on Monday and moves through in the
evening. High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday,
then offshore on Thursday. The next frontal boundary approaches
the region on Friday.


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Showers associated with a weak surface low ahead of an
approaching upper trough continue to move northeast towards the
region, crossing the area through the overnight hours. Can`t
completely rule out a rumble of thunder to two as these showers
pass. Otherwise the forecast remains on track, with another warm
and muggy night as overnight lows generally remain in the 70s
with the exception of a few spots well north and west of NYC.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The focus will be on Monday afternoon with a flash flood and
severe thunderstorm potential, as the main upper trough axis and
attendant cold front approach the area by Monday evening. Some
uncertainly exists with respect to convective development
overall, which will hinge on the amount of destabilization
realized during the late morning and early afternoon. The
convective threat will be somewhat diminished if the early
morning cloud cover and precipitation hangs on longer than
currently forecast. Current thinking is that clouds and any
remaining showers are out of the area by 14-16Z, which is
broadly supported by short term model guidance.

First, areal mean precipitable water values will remain elevated,
near 1.5-2 inches, so any storms that do develop will have the
potential to produce flash flooding. This will be especially true
across northeastern NJ and the southern Hudson Valley which saw some
of the highest rainfall totals from TS Fay late last week. 1-hr FFG
has been consistently around 0.5-1" in these areas the past couple
of days. In addition, 12Z HREF is showing a swath of 60-80% >1" per
hour exceedance probabilities for parts of SW CT Monday afternoon.
NCEP/WPC has SW CT in a slight risk and the remainder of our area in
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday.

Second, a warm humid airmass in place ahead of the approaching cold
front, along with sufficient daytime heating will result in an
increased threat of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms by
Monday afternoon. Moderate instability, with model soundings
indicating SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear
values of 30-40 kts look sufficient to support a few organized
storms. NCEP/SPC maintains a marginal risk for the entire area on
Monday. Convective activity looks to diminish by Monday evening
as the cold front clears the coast.

Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 60s inland to the low
70s elsewhere. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s
as dewpoints rise back into the upper 60s to around 70.

There will be a continued high risk for rip current development
both today and Tuesday with 4-5ft @ 8-9 sec period swells
almost orthogonal to the coast.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level trough over central New England drops south through
southern New York Tuesday. At the same time weak cold front near the
Connecticut/ Massachusetts border pushes south. With the added lift
from the trough overhead opted for scattered showers and
thunderstorms along the front and chance PoPs for the Lower
Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. Areas not impacted by
showers will likely reach temperatures in the upper 80s for the
afternoon.

Conditions dry and lingering rain comes to an end overnight once the
aforementioned trough shifts over the Atlantic. Temperatures should
fall into the low 70s/ upper 60s due to the clearing skies overhead

[Cambium]

Video of hail in Ellington today

https://twitter.com/JacobNadeau/stat...968043520?s=19

[Cambium]

Folks in Ellington are probably like " it's the end of the world in 2020". Meanwhile the hail is only falling there.
Not everyone sees what you see but eventually over time everyone gets a chance to see it and the easier it is to report, the more these events will be shown.

[Cambium]

Humidity value shouldn't be used to see how humid it is. That's an old method and this graphic shows why.

Humidity value can remain the same while moisture in the air outside changes. Dewpoints is a better measure of how humid it is.



https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8/s...52017830895617


"Contrary to what it seems the relative humidity is NOT at 80-90% when its humid in summertime. RH is "relative to the temperature". 90° air holds more moisture than 50° air. The amt. of moisture is more but the bucket is bigger. So the percentage stays between 40-50% not 90%"