[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

And NWS on their latest update (and newly issued Winter Storm Watch) moved it back to Thursday morning thru evening and just cloudy Friday.....

American models NAM & GFS has it starting in the morning. Latest Euro says no.

I need to be on the road in the morning and evening so I'm watching closely. Refreshing forecasts every 3-6hrs

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by mels

From NWS for those of us in central and northern CT:

Thanks mels! Appreciate the contribution!

I got the text alert as well.

For those that still arent on it..

Free text alerts sent.
https://www.weatherusa.net/alerts/

[7 Wishes]

Looked up something interesting.....record snowfall at BDR for this Thursday is quite low for a February date, 4.0" in 2000. Good chance it gets broken!

[BPt111]

Connecticut is warmer than Amarillo, TX currently

[BPt111]

Cold weather in Texas

[Solstodur]

0z NAM has us getting a foot! keep it coming

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Solstodur

0z NAM has us getting a foot! keep it coming

NAM says over an inch liquid in cold enough air at BDR

[Cambium]

Starts tomorrow morning after sunrise. Gets heavier after lunch. Could change to sleet after sunset for southern half of CT


Pretty much a 12hr+/- snow event

[Cambium]

Wow! Interesting Disco from Upton. Rarely you see technical detailed gems like this from them. Haha.

I'll hold what you may find interesting...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
646 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through this evening. The
high will depart to the north late tonight, giving way to an
area of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast. A series of
lows will then track to the south and east of the area from
Thursday into Friday. High pressure will then build in for the
weekend. The next weather system is then slated for Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minor adjustments with this update to account for latest
obs/trends.

Polar high pressure over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
states this morning will build into the area today, while low
pressure tracks away from the Canadian Maritimes. Gusty NW winds
ushering in an unseasonably cold airmass will diminish quickly
this morning.

Highs today will struggle to reach the freezing mark, ranging
from the upper 20s inland, to the lower 30s at the coast. This
is about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The focus this period shifts to another southern branch storm
system that will interact with a polar airmass across the
region, continuing in what has been an active month.

A departing polar vortex across eastern Canada and a deep-
layered SW flow emanating from the southern branch longwave
trough over the Plains will provide confluent flow to the north,
allowing polar high pressure to strengthen across the NE
tonight. At the same time, an active frontal zone along the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, extending along the SE and Mid Atlantic
coasts, will funnel a series of lows that will pass south and
east of the area Thursday into Friday. Ahead of the first wave,
snow will break out from SW to NE Thursday morning into the
afternoon.

Guidance continues to trend colder with the system with the low
track generally near the 40n...70W benchmark. However, global
models are in good agreement with a long period of light to
occasionally moderate snow through Friday as multiple waves
passes to the SE. The NAM remains an outlier with strong
frontogenetic banding to the NW of the first low on Thursday
with the potential for heavy snow, especially along the coast.
It produces liquid equivalent amounts of a half inch at the far
NW corner of the Lower Hudson Valley to over an inch across the
NYC metro and LI by early Thursday evening. There is also a
strong upper jet to the NW of the area. However, in assessing
the guidance, the better jet dynamics appear to come in Friday
as the RRQ of the upper jet approaches. Additionally, while
there is a strong baroclinic zone to the NW of the low track,
the low is fairly weak and the best thermal forcing may reside
just south of the area. Overall,the NAM seems to be overdone
with the lift, but at the same time it has been consistent over
the last several runs. Still though, it like the global models
has continued to shift to the south with the frontal zone and
low tracks. This will have to be watched closely today to see if
it falls into the consensus with a longer, drawn out snowfall
event. In fact, much of the guidance points to snowfall amounts
of 6 to 8 inches across the area, but over a 24 to 36h period.
Warning criteria is 6 inches or more in 12h, or 8 inches or
more in 24h. The latter is looking more likely at this time.

Additionally. the ECMWF and GGEM indicate some of this snow
could hang on into Friday evening/night as the last piece of
southern branch energy kicks out. The GGEM even brings moderate
to heavy snow into eastern LI/SE CT. Thus, the Winter Storm
Watch has been extended into Friday.

As for ptype, this is looking to be a mainly snow event with
perhaps some mixing with sleet across LI and the NYC metro
Thursday night into Friday. If that does not happen, the higher
snowfall totals could very well be at the coast. For now,
going with a uniform 4 to 8 inches across the entire forecast
area.

Temperatures through the period will remain unseasonably cold
with lows tonight in the teens inland and the lower 20s at the
coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 20s to around 30 and
will remain nearly steady Thursday night, possibly slowly rising
along the coast. Highs on Friday will be in the lower to mid
30s, but possibly colder if snow persists through the day.

NAM says heavy banding snow. Global models say long drawn out snow which means light stuff over 24-36hrs

[WouldLoveTo]

So I have a DMV appointment tomorrow afternoon. Anyone know how likely they are to shut down and do they contact you since we have appointments? Calling them is usually an exercise in futility, although I will give it a shot.