[Cambium]

Anafronts always overperform. This is 1 of 2 ways we can get decent snowfalls. The other is obviously a coastal storm.


7 Hour Loop with storm reports.
Nice little 2-4" event for most of us and roads are just wet.


4-6" in parts of Eastern PA.

[Cambium]

Give credit where credit is due.... NAM and Upton.

Right about the upper jet stream and using the NAM, but wrong about the warm ground.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1157 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022

The coverage weather area will be in a favorable area for upper level divergence late tonight
into Sun due to a strengthening jet. The area usually does well with jet induced precipitation events,
so pops were ramped up to high likely and a blend of the 3Z SREF and 00Z NAMNest
was used for QPF. Some streaks of moderate precipitation are expected where the best mid
level frontogenesis develops. All snow is progged by 9-11Z Sun, with the precipitation tapering
off by the aftn. Best chance for lingering light snow will be across the far eastern portion of the
cwa.

With a warm ground to start, and generally light snowfall intensity,
total accums were limited to around an inch. If the pockets or
streaks of heavier snow do not materialize as anticipated, a
dusting can be expected at most.

On the very next discussion update they changed the wording:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
340 PM EST Sat Feb 12 2022

After a mild day across the CWA, a cold front is set to push
across the region this evening and into the first part of
tonight.

behind the front, the CWA will be in a favorable area for a
light snowfall event due to strong mid-level frontogenesis and
upper jet energy. This area of precipitation is largely detached
from low pressure development off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Sunday, which passes well south and east of the area through
Sunday night.

Snow is expected to overspread the region after midnight, then
POPs become likely across much of the CWA around 4-6am and
continue into Sunday afternoon. POPs then start to taper off
from west to east during the mid to late afternoon and evening
hours. On average, we are looking at a 2 inch snowfall for much
of the forecast area. Areas well north and west of NYC, will
likely be closer to the 1 inch amount. There is a chance that
some of the precipitation starts as a brief rain/snow mix at the
onset, before quickly changing over to all snow.

Looking at the latest probabilistic guidance, the low end
chances has no snow at all with the reasonable worse case being
3.0-3.5 inches.

One challenging part of the forecast will be temperatures
during the day on Sunday. With record warmth today (highs in the
50s and 60s) ground temperatures remain well above freezing. In
addition, some of the 12z forecast guidance keeps temperatures
above freezing (33-35 degrees) during parts of the day Sunday.
While p-type is expected to be all snow, if these surface
temperatures do stay right around 32 or slightly above 32, we
may not see a lot of snow sticking to roads, and may be confined
to just the grassy surfaces.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

YES! 17:1 ratios. I got 3 inches which melted to 0.17" liquid.


Another oddity is that its sticking to the trees. Fluffy snow doesn't do that. Odd event. lol .


I think the trees held onto the warmth so the fluffy snow stuck on there easier if that makes sense.

Yeah I noticed that, quite unusual.

[Cambium]

NEXT 2 WEEKS....


Temps: DOWN & UP, DOWN & UP


Snow: ZERO


Rain: Euro has 2 rain events. GFS has 3.


Was this the last snowfall of the winter? Doubt it; but maybe???

[rach5]

Cambium - Nice snow event today! What are your thoughts Thursday into Friday? I see this in the NWS for Providence and the GFS looks ugly.
"As was the case yesterday the biggest concerns are the potential for
strong winds/gusts and heavy rainfall within the warm sector ahead
of the incoming cold front. Deterministic guidance shows roughly 70-
80+ kts at 925 hPa late on Thursday into Friday. The NAEFS/GEFS/EPS
guidance shows the V/wind speed component of the wind being roughly
3-4 STD and perhaps up to 5 STD anomalies per Situational Awareness
tables. Still a bit too early to tell how much of this will mix
down, but based on current signals did bump winds/gusts toward the
NBM90th percentile once again. Take it with a grain of salt but the
latest GFS shows roughly 60-70 kts only 1.5-2 kft AGL across eastern
areas. Lastly, EPS/GEFS/Canadian Ensemble guidance show 50-70
percent probabilities of sustained winds AOA 34 kts over the
Cape/Islands and adjacent waters. This is a bit of a decrease from
the previous runs, but still high nonetheless."

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by rach5

Cambium - Nice snow event today! What are your thoughts Thursday into Friday? I see this in the NWS for Providence and the GFS looks ugly.
"As was the case yesterday the biggest concerns are the potential for
strong winds/gusts and heavy rainfall within the warm sector ahead
of the incoming cold front. Deterministic guidance shows roughly 70-
80+ kts at 925 hPa late on Thursday into Friday. The NAEFS/GEFS/EPS
guidance shows the V/wind speed component of the wind being roughly
3-4 STD and perhaps up to 5 STD anomalies per Situational Awareness
tables. Still a bit too early to tell how much of this will mix
down, but based on current signals did bump winds/gusts toward the
NBM90th percentile once again. Take it with a grain of salt but the
latest GFS shows roughly 60-70 kts only 1.5-2 kft AGL across eastern
areas. Lastly, EPS/GEFS/Canadian Ensemble guidance show 50-70
percent probabilities of sustained winds AOA 34 kts over the
Cape/Islands and adjacent waters. This is a bit of a decrease from
the previous runs, but still high nonetheless."

Thanks for posting the Disco! Interesting. I saw the temp of 60° and thought, hmmm, strong front. Didn't think about winds with it.


The GFS as said in that discussion showing 60-70 knots at 1500-2000'. That's close to surface! Get some to mix down and that means surface would see 50+knots. But its 4 days away and the GFS so lets see what models say next couple days. It's good you are staying in tune with the forecasts/discussions You're ahead of 80% of the people already

[Cambium]

Danbury, CT forecast. Like Mr Miyagi said...…….UPPPPP......DOWNNN......UPPPP.....DO WNNN...

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Cambium

NEXT 2 WEEKS....


Temps: DOWN & UP, DOWN & UP


Snow: ZERO


Rain: Euro has 2 rain events. GFS has 3.


Was this the last snowfall of the winter? Doubt it; but maybe???

If you mean meteorological winter...then good chance this was it!

[Cambium]

Is it really still snowing in Eastern CT?


Over 12 hours of snowfall today.. Here's the past 4hrs. Still snowing.


3-4" on Long Island, 3-5" in Rhode Island, Eastern MA 2-4" across CT

[Cambium]

13th coldest low with a fresh snowpack outside.


13.4° low here.


Current temps. Still snowing in Southeast New England. Almost 24hrs! 8-10" of snow fell! WOW!