[Cambium]

German model ICON has the Sunday snowstorm as well now. LOL


Canadien still OTS


Euro updates by 1:30pm

[Mr_250]

Does that say 20 inches of snow for Sunday?

[Cambium]

Euro12z keeps it too far away and keeps the storms separate. Not a big storm but snows south of us

[Cambium]

Yup

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An active wx pattern expected in the Long Term. The first sys is a
coastal low which emerges off of the Carolina Coast around 12Z Sun,
then deepens while tracking east of Cape Cod around 00Z Mon. This
low looks like a classic 4-8 inch snow maker, with amounts dependent
on the track. Right now, all of the modeling, except for the NAM,
are too far east to place these higher amounts across the cwa. There
is enough consensus however to increase snow chances to around 50
percent, and to introduce accums of up to 2 inches. A wwd trend
closer to the NAM will require an increase in amounts.

The area dries out Sun ngt and Mon. At the same time, an arctic
airmass will be setting up over cntrl Canada. This will set up a
general wly flow thru the week. With extensive snow cover from the
Plains, thru the Midwest and Ohio Valley, there will not be much
opportunity for airmass modification. The NBM may bee too warm thru
the week as a result.

A piece of energy will likely come thru on during the middle of the
week. There is some uncertainty with timing and intensity, with the
ECMWF slower and stronger. There is also some question as to whether
the warm sector will get in and be sufficient to produce rain or at
least a mix near the coasts. Chances for pcpn have been included Mon
ngt into Wed, even though there will not be wx thru that entire
period.

Fair and cold wx is then fcst for the rest of the week. Although the
NBM was still followed at this point, it may again be too warm,
especially if snow cover is in place.

[Cambium]

Light Snow / Rain today.


Sunday's Storm.

Overnight models trended back south so we only get hit with light snow. But some members still have a hit.

Including the Hi Res NAM model. Check it out.

One thing we know for sure is that its fast moving. 12hrs and its done.

[htfdcolt]

Potential "high impact" event on Sunday now?

https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/st...02717964247041

[Cambium]

When the Euro model had the Sunday snowstorm 5-8 days ago and the rest were "OTS", we wondered.


Then Euro lost the storm 3 days ago and we still wondered.


Now... All models agree on a snowstorm for NJ, NY & Southern New England Sunday while we wait for the Euro12z.


It's a 12hr storm. Sunday during the day. I think we all can agree that's great timing!

[Mr_250]

What are they saying for depth?

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Mr_250

What are they saying for depth?

NWS in issuing a Winter Storm Watch is saying 5 to 7 inches.

[Cambium]

So they based their totals on 10:1 ratios.........but......... if ratios are higher, totals will be too.

For instance if 1/2" liquid falls as snow at 10:1 ratios = 0.50 x 10 = 5". But if 1/2" liquid falls as snow at 15:1 ratios 0.50 x 15 = 7.5".

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
436 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021

Models during the 12Z cycle have trended wetter with a low track
just to the south and east of the 40N...70W benchmark Sunday
evening. This track is typically more conducive for heavier
snows along the coast. There are some small timing differences,
but expect snow to develop near daybreak Sunday and quickly
overspread the area in the morning. While this is a quick
mover, strong dynamics with a coupling jet structure between
the two branches and strong mid level frontogenetic forcing
supports a moderate amount of liquid equivalent for this storm.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF both have about half inch across the NYC
metro to around three-quarters of an inch eastern LI/SE CT. The
GGEM and RGEM are considerably wetter with amounts about a
quarter inch higher. This is also supported by the SREF,
however, the GEFS and EPS means are a bit less. A model blend
and the increasing trend warrants a forecast of 5 to 7 inches of
snowfall near the coast with lesser amounts to the NW.
Additionally, there is strong lift in the snow growth region
(-10 to -20 C), supporting dendritic growth and possible higher
accumulation rates. For the time, have gone with a 10:1 ratio.

Here we go again! You guys ready??




https://forecast.weather.gov/product...&highlight=off

https://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=OKX