[Solstodur]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Cold dry Thanksgiving but looking ahead to Sunday.... too much variation with the models still. The energy associated with this is over the Arctic or Pacific at this point. I havent traced it back.

There's a whole bunch of stuff that need to be reconciled out in the west CONUS as well. Way too volatile to read much into models ATM imo.

On another note the dry air following this storm allowed for some awesome stargazing last night. Reminded of a night not too long ago...

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Solstodur

There's a whole bunch of stuff that need to be reconciled out in the west CONUS as well. Way too volatile to read much into models ATM imo.
...

Yup, as usually is the case. But I remember a long period between 2009-2012 where big storms were being shown and models were agreeing on it even 7 days before. I had confidence creating threads a week before the storm. Not anymore. I bet you with some model updates they did in recent years, it ruined the rhythm if that makes sense.


BTW -- New Euro trended colder again and GFS has more snow. Rain to Snow scenario as of today


This is for Sunday Dec 1st for those wondering

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yup, as usually is the case. But I remember a long period between 2009-2012 where big storms were being shown and models were agreeing on it even 7 days before. I had confidence creating threads a week before the storm. Not anymore. I bet you with some model updates they did in recent years, it ruined the rhythm if that makes sense.


BTW -- New Euro trended colder again and GFS has more snow. Rain to Snow scenario as of today


This is for Sunday Dec 1st for those wondering

HMM....snow day for return from Thanksgiving break?

[Solstodur]

Quiet day in here today. Summary of the trends so far is actually moving towards the GFS solution... starting to give me hope. Hmm. Still a lot of pieces of energy mixing together so modeling will be volatile and I have no doubts this will change by the 0z runs, but interesting to say the least.

[Cambium]

Do you guys prefer Rain to Snow or Snow to Rain?

[KEVIN_224]

Option C - Rain with no changeover?

[Solstodur]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Do you guys prefer Rain to Snow or Snow to Rain?

Depends on the temperatures that follow the system imo

Rain to snow is pretty good regardless of whatever follows. Snow to rain can be AWFUL is the temperatures plunge after it. But then again, that stuff is fun to walk on.

[clutchrider]

I also follow the CT Weather and News guy on fb as well as have his app. He is saying it looks like snow even for the shoreline, and plowable inland. Got the Jeep ready and fired up the thrower today.

[Cambium]

Animation every 6hrs from the Euro00z model. Sunday 7am to Monday 1pm.

Furthest north the 850mb freezing line goes is over Southern Mass so that means all snow north of there.

Watch that crucial purple line (0°C), you have to be north of that to see snow .

[Cambium]

Interesting.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
629 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

The upper ridge begins to break down late Saturday and Saturday
night ahead of another low pressure system developing across the
northern plains. While clouds will gradually increase Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night, Saturday, and much of Saturday night
is expected to remain dry, as upper level blocking slows the
approach of the developing low. Precipitation then overspreads the
area from southwest to northeast late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Temperatures are initially cold enough for precipitation to
start as snow but as temperatures begin to rise, the snow will
change to rain across much of the area during the day on Sunday. The
best chances of precipitation remaining all snow will be well north
and west of NYC across Orange and Putnam counties. Rain then may
transition back to snow or a rain/snow mix as the steadiest
precipitation comes to an end Sunday night and/or Monday.
Precipitation types remain highly uncertain with this system as
significant model differences remain in the timing/intensity details
of this system. Because of these model differences, will not make
too many significant changes to the forecast.

So that would mean around I-84 in CT too