[17Christian76]

Originally Posted by riffwraith

Summer of 2025? Maybe.


No way it's happening this summer - in fact, prices are in all likelihood going to be higher in June, July then they are now.


Cheers.

I wouldn’t suggest that affirmatively. It could just as easily decline greatly. According to Realtor, some communities already are.

Cheers.

[brownedbits]

I love this thread because the bias is so evident. Those who want to buy or already sold their CT homes pre-pandemic or otherwise missed out on the upswing in prices are claiming that bubble is ready to burst any second. Those already owning or benefitting from rising prices are in the camp of "this can go on for a while." The truth is, none of us know. If any of us were able to time this perfectly we would be very rich.

With the way things stand now, my personal opinion is there is no way this lack of inventory just POOF! eases up in the next six months without major outside influences changing the game. Sellers aren't suddenly going to have somewhere to move, because there is no inventory. Buyers can't buy, because there is no inventory. Quite the conundrum.

[Lincolnian]

My prediction. The huge spike in gas prices will quickly affect consumer behavior. Many people looking to buy will see their budgets pressed and reevaluate buying a new house. Others who have been holding out selling, especially second home owners, may be more motivated to cash out. This combination will moderate the rise in prices and may begin to bring them down.

[New Englander]

Originally Posted by brownedbits

I love this thread because the bias is so evident. Those who want to buy or already sold their CT homes pre-pandemic or otherwise missed out on the upswing in prices are claiming that bubble is ready to burst any second. Those already owning or benefitting from rising prices are in the camp of "this can go on for a while." The truth is, none of us know. If any of us were able to time this perfectly we would be very rich.

With the way things stand now, my personal opinion is there is no way this lack of inventory just POOF! eases up in the next six months without major outside influences changing the game. Sellers aren't suddenly going to have somewhere to move, because there is no inventory. Buyers can't buy, because there is no inventory. Quite the conundrum.

Some of us sold properties and still own properties. Irrespective of where the market goes, I have very nicely realized on the gains and don't have a single complaint -- my buyers, however, may or may not be in tears down the road.

As for the highlighted part, you don't need to perfectly time the market to be very rich. There are equities traders that rely on momentum, real estate is no different, if anything it's slower turning (2008 GFC excluded).

The inventory crunch can ease up due to the external factors or would-be buyers being essentially priced out from getting a mortgage. While there are plenty of institutionals and cash buyers, I am sure the financing unaffordability will also give them pause when purchasing.

Let me be clear here, the market will have a downturn, can't say when however people should be buying/selling with this caution in mind.

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by brownedbits

I love this thread because the bias is so evident. Those who want to buy or already sold their CT homes pre-pandemic or otherwise missed out on the upswing in prices are claiming that bubble is ready to burst any second. Those already owning or benefitting from rising prices are in the camp of "this can go on for a while." The truth is, none of us know. If any of us were able to time this perfectly we would be very rich.

With the way things stand now, my personal opinion is there is no way this lack of inventory just POOF! eases up in the next six months without major outside influences changing the game. Sellers aren't suddenly going to have somewhere to move, because there is no inventory. Buyers can't buy, because there is no inventory. Quite the conundrum.

Definitely this. Jay

[17Christian76]

Originally Posted by New Englander

Some of us sold properties and still own properties. Irrespective of where the market goes, I have very nicely realized on the gains and don't have a single complaint -- my buyers, however, may or may not be in tears down the road.

As for the highlighted part, you don't need to perfectly time the market to be very rich. There are equities traders that rely on momentum, real estate is no different, if anything it's slower turning (2008 GFC excluded).

The inventory crunch can ease up due to the external factors or would-be buyers being essentially priced out from getting a mortgage. While there are plenty of institutionals and cash buyers, I am sure the financing unaffordability will also give them pause when purchasing.

Let me be clear here, the market will have a downturn, can't say when however people should be buying/selling with this caution in mind.

Exactly… inflation will eat up disposable income and make CT towns less desirable. It is only a matter of when. I think it will be sooner than most expect.

[New Englander]

Originally Posted by 17Christian76

Exactly… inflation will eat up disposable income and make CT towns less desirable. It is only a matter of when. I think it will be sooner than most expect.

I have been following your posts on this thread and agree with the well-reasoned argument. This inventory crunch is based on demand and forward market perceptions, both of which may turn at a certain point.

[SteveM85]

Originally Posted by brownedbits

Those who want to buy or already sold their CT homes pre-pandemic or otherwise missed out on the upswing in prices are claiming that bubble is ready to burst any second. .

Yes, they're hoping for a Black Swan event to bring it all to a grinding halt. Temporary gas increase isn't it. Inflation hasn't slowed anything down the last few months. NY buyers have funds earmarked and ready to go.

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by 17Christian76

Exactly… inflation will eat up disposable income and make CT towns less desirable. It is only a matter of when. I think it will be sooner than most expect.

I highly doubt it will have any impact on the desirability of Connecticut towns, at least relative to towns in other states. It hasn’t in the past and it won’t in the future. Jay

[RiskReturn]

Originally Posted by JayCT

I highly doubt it will have any impact on the desirability of Connecticut towns, at least relative to towns in other states. It hasn’t in the past and it won’t in the future. Jay

This. Market trends and relative desirability of a town aren't really correlated. Sure, prices may go down if the housing market takes a dive, but the relative desirability of a town will stay fairly constant (especially one that's mature & well-established like many in CT) - barring any major shift in demographics or town planning.