Current Real estate markets (New Haven, Stamford: shopping centers, cottages, waterfront)

kidyankee764 · 04-20-2022, 04:33 AM

I’m curious to see the percent of cash buyers these days. Anyone have access to that data?

synchem · 04-20-2022, 06:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CT_Yank

Until companies pay more income than 3% raise in face of 8.5% inflation (more like 20-30%; housing/rent up big, gas up big, all labor services up big), you will have massive bubble where debt load will be unsustainable, especially after recession hits. It is just not true on cash deals being norm. Demand will nose-dive with rates. It will collapse soon bc it is irrational.

I'd argue we will see sustained 6-10% inflation for the rest of this decade with rates not increasing to match. The US has a debt/GDP ratio of 130%, if the FED keeps raising rates the US budget will have to spend more and more on interest payments which is not possible. They will need sustained inflation to bring the debt/GDP from 130% to around 70% so increasing rates will not have us default on our 30 trillion in debt. This is similar to what happened in the 40's after WWII, 1946-1951 real rates (interest rate - inflation) were sustained negative and brought debt/GDP from 110% to 50%. The only way to get ones salary to increase at the rate of inflation is to change jobs and get market value. This will hurt demand from first time homebuyers, but cash buyers are indifferent to interest rates.

So as kidyankee said above I'm also interested in what % are cash buyers.

**adding on
Does anyone know of any new housing developments that contain SFH in the 2-300k range? I feel like most of new housing stock is in the 6-7-800k range since developers want to be as profitable as they can.

mels · 04-20-2022, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

I’m curious to see the percent of cash buyers these days. Anyone have access to that data?

Even if that data is available, I am not sure how accurate it would be. I say that because now services exist where you pay a third party to make a "cash offer" on a home. The home seller sees it as a cash offer, while the buyer is really financing with this third party. What a time to be alive.

SteveM85 · 04-20-2022, 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mels

Even if that data is available, I am not sure how accurate it would be. I say that because now services exist where you pay a third party to make a "cash offer" on a home. The home seller sees it as a cash offer, while the buyer is really financing with this third party. What a time to be alive.

Cash is cash. A pan is a pan.
Seller's agents should ask for proof of funds, from a legitimate bank checking or savings account, and then a certified check that clears the next day. That's it. Where the funds in the bank savings account came from, no one cares.
Toll Bros and other developers down here want to see proof of funds in a liquid account ready to go if you tell them "I'm paying cash"

Catheetiem · 04-20-2022, 07:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by synchem

I'd argue we will see sustained 6-10% inflation for the rest of this decade with rates not increasing to match. The US has a debt/GDP ratio of 130%, if the FED keeps raising rates the US budget will have to spend more and more on interest payments which is not possible. They will need sustained inflation to bring the debt/GDP from 130% to around 70% so increasing rates will not have us default on our 30 trillion in debt. This is similar to what happened in the 40's after WWII, 1946-1951 real rates (interest rate - inflation) were sustained negative and brought debt/GDP from 110% to 50%. The only way to get ones salary to increase at the rate of inflation is to change jobs and get market value. This will hurt demand from first time homebuyers, but cash buyers are indifferent to interest rates.

So as kidyankee said above I'm also interested in what % are cash buyers.

**adding on
Does anyone know of any new housing developments that contain SFH in the 2-300k range? I feel like most of new housing stock is in the 6-7-800k range since developers want to be as profitable as they can.

This is not a development, just a standalone house, but it's very close to that range:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9...57336702_zpid/

I remember it because it was such a surprise to see new construction at that price point. I think that's about the only one I've seen!

JayCT · 04-20-2022, 11:48 AM

Berkshire Hathaway is reporting that prices are up and inventory is down in southwestern Connecticut. Sounds good for sellers but bad for buyers. Jay

https://westfaironline.com/146893/ct...own-prices-up/

JayCT · 04-20-2022, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by synchem

I'd argue we will see sustained 6-10% inflation for the rest of this decade with rates not increasing to match. The US has a debt/GDP ratio of 130%, if the FED keeps raising rates the US budget will have to spend more and more on interest payments which is not possible. They will need sustained inflation to bring the debt/GDP from 130% to around 70% so increasing rates will not have us default on our 30 trillion in debt. This is similar to what happened in the 40's after WWII, 1946-1951 real rates (interest rate - inflation) were sustained negative and brought debt/GDP from 110% to 50%. The only way to get ones salary to increase at the rate of inflation is to change jobs and get market value. This will hurt demand from first time homebuyers, but cash buyers are indifferent to interest rates.

So as kidyankee said above I'm also interested in what % are cash buyers.

**adding on
Does anyone know of any new housing developments that contain SFH in the 2-300k range? I feel like most of new housing stock is in the 6-7-800k range since developers want to be as profitable as they can.

Tiredofnyclife · 04-21-2022, 08:24 AM

What do people think of Deep River, Old Saybrook, and Essex? I am looking for something very foresty with a lot of trees yet w/in 2 hours of NYC commute (each way).

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...57848830_zpid/

mels · 04-21-2022, 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiredofnyclife

What do people think of Deep River, Old Saybrook, and Essex? I am looking for something very foresty with a lot of trees yet w/in 2 hours of NYC commute (each way).

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...57848830_zpid/

That is a charming area of the state (CT River Valley), particularly Essex IMO. Each town has its own feel. If you are seriously considering that area, you'd be well served to drive around and check it out.

Tiredofnyclife · 04-21-2022, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mels

That is a charming area of the state (CT River Valley), particularly Essex IMO. Each town has its own feel. If you are seriously considering that area, you'd be well served to drive around and check it out.

Are there hotels nearby that one can stay in?