[RunD1987]

Originally Posted by Stylo

No large gatherings until a vaccine is available?

I think you’re grossly over exaggerating the severity of this virus.

We will probably have herd immunity and it’ll fizzle out long before a vaccine is approved.

I have to disagree with this

A lot of new reports continue to support the body can't build antibodies to this virus. Also that there is several mutations of this virus out there. Also new studies showing that those who contracted COVID-19 are possibly asymptomatic carriers.

[BPt111]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

The facts of the matter are - Covid is less contagious than the measles and only slightly more dangerous than swine flu. Period. Full stop.

Worldwide numbers

An estimated 140,000 people died from measles in 2018, WHO says, up from an all-time low of 90,000 in 2016.

It reached 1.5 million in early 1990s



COVID-19 currently numbers

1.2 million+ cases with nearly 70,000 deaths

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by RunD1987

I have to disagree with this

A lot of new reports continue to support the body can't build antibodies to this virus. Also that there is several mutations of this virus out there. Also new studies showing that those who contracted COVID-19 are possibly asymptomatic carriers.

This is patently false re: immunity. Where are these new reports? If you’re going to make bold statements like that, you need to back it up with a source.

This is an RNA virus. It’s not like the flu. The mutations are slow and it doesn’t change “form” like the flu to evade our antibodies.

There’s ample proof now that we gain immunity to it.

Dr. Fauci literally said he would “bet anything” on it.

Are you more knowledgeable than him?

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...-immune-2020-3

Lastly, the fact we are starting to see there’s tons of mild and asymptomatic infections that probably go months back that we had no idea about supports my assertion that it’s less severe and so widespread that herd immunity is coming before a vaccine. This spreads like wildfire.

[Pike320]

Originally Posted by RunD1987

I have to disagree with this

A lot of new reports continue to support the body can't build antibodies to this virus. Also that there is several mutations of this virus out there. Also new studies showing that those who contracted COVID-19 are possibly asymptomatic carriers.

So your plan is a permanent shutdown of the economy? That’s pretty much the end game if what you say is true.

[BobNJ1960]

Originally Posted by Stylo

No large gatherings until a vaccine is available?

.

at which point this region would be living a long-term economic nightmare.

Both Cuomo & Trump are acknowledging the fact an economic restart plan will be required soon. Lamont follows Cuomo's lead.

Right now, near the apex, isn't the time it starts, but it will no doubt be measured in weeks, as opposed to months.

If not, we'll have far larger problems than a virus which per latest covid-19 website info will likely result in the deaths of 1 in 3,500 Americans (90k or so projection/320 mill population).

[Wilton2ParkAve]

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

at which point this region would be living a long-term economic nightmare.

Both Cuomo & Trump are acknowledging the fact an economic restart plan will be required soon. Lamont follows Cuomo's lead.

Right now, near the apex, isn't the time it starts, but it will no doubt be measured in weeks, as opposed to months.

If not, we'll have far larger problems than a virus which per latest covid-19 website info will likely result in the deaths of 1 in 3,500 Americans (90k or so projection/320 mill population).

Yeah - peak is predicted to be late next week which puts us at 15-20k deaths at the half way mark. It looks like we are not going to surpass the 2017-2018 flu season which killed 61,000 people in the states (including many young people - 10 year hockey player from NC being one of them). Yet we continued to be a functioning society during that period.

[RunD1987]

Originally Posted by Pike320

So your plan is a permanent shutdown of the economy? That’s pretty much the end game if what you say is true.

Wouldn't be a total shut down

That's why I said have to weigh number of active cases, number hospitalized, and number deceased in a week based off a percentage. From that percentage base it off three levels of quarantine.

That's also why we needed an emergency UBI till September. This is going to be a long haul.

One person asymptomatic in a crowd of 50,000 people can be the source of infection for all those people.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

The facts of the matter are - Covid is less contagious than the measles and only slightly more dangerous than swine flu. Period. Full stop.

How about chicken pox and poison ivy? Lol. I know I know... apples to oranges. I just want this thing done with already.

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

The facts of the matter are - Covid is less contagious than the measles and only slightly more dangerous than swine flu. Period. Full stop.

Unfortunately this is much worse. The mortality rate for the Swine Flu was 0.02%. So far the mortality rate for Covid-19 is 2%. That’s a significant difference. Jay

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19...swine-flu.html

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by JayCT

Unfortunately this is much worse. The mortality rate for the Swine Flu was 0.02%. So far the mortality rate for Covid-19 is 2%. That’s a significant difference. Jay

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19...swine-flu.html

The problem is one of those numbers is based on a full retrospective and the other is based on limited test data, usually with a bias to more severe cases.

All signs are pointing to a mortality rate of .2% or lower. A severe seasonal flu is about .1%.