[synchem]

The main issue is this is a fast spreading virus. You're comparing something that is infecting a lot of people in a short amount of time verse the flu which occurs over a 6 month range. Overloading the health system with COVID is drastically different to the Flu which is spread out over months. That's the whole reason for shutting things down. Our system can't handle everyone having symptons at the same time.

[BPt111]

Originally Posted by synchem

The main issue is this is a fast spreading virus. You're comparing something that is infecting a lot of people in a short amount of time verse the flu which occurs over a 6 month range. Overloading the health system with COVID is drastically different to the Flu which is spread out over months. That's the whole reason for shutting things down. Our system can't handle everyone having symptons at the same time.

I agree if we didn’t take action to slow down the spread things would of been much worst now.

[Cambium]

Oklahoma will be looked at as an example in the future.

But I'll repeat again... once CT has 0 cases for weeks who's to stop these other states that were late to have someone infected come into Connecticut?

Either we do a country lock down for 3 weeks so every state gets to 0 at same time ...OR have some kind of state border control. Period

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1246784575143116805

[WouldLoveTo]

Reading this as I watch a guy take a casual stroll down the street, masked.....

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by synchem

The main issue is this is a fast spreading virus. You're comparing something that is infecting a lot of people in a short amount of time verse the flu which occurs over a 6 month range. Overloading the health system with COVID is drastically different to the Flu which is spread out over months. That's the whole reason for shutting things down. Our system can't handle everyone having symptons at the same time.

Also that more than most viruses we have tons of hidden asymptomatic "carriers" who can kill someone without knowing. If we didn't have this we probably wouldn't need the measures we are taking now

Originally Posted by Cambium

What I'm worried about for us is this......

After weeks of no new cases...

"New cases in South Korea jumped by 81 as of Sunday morning, and its number of deaths increased by six,

Mainland China reports 30 new cases, 3 more deaths"

I mean are we gonna be in the clear and then start dealing with this all over again??

And get this....
", it said 25 were “imported,” or attributed to people traveling from overseas"

IMPORTED!!!

1. Who and why in heck are we still flying?????
2. Who's to say someone infected from NY or MA comes into CT after we have no new cases for weeks????

Which is why we have to be careful about how and when we "reopen the economy". We also have to be careful that we don't open large gatherings like movie theatres and Disneyland too soon and then someone gets sick from there and everyone's afraid to go for a long time and we get put in worse shape than now with no possible escape plan.

Also, as I think you said it a later post, we could start with non-food stores opening and doing the things that food and drug stores are doing now (limited entry, spaced out check out lines). But that said....

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

at which point this region would be living a long-term economic nightmare.

Both Cuomo & Trump are acknowledging the fact an economic restart plan will be required soon. Lamont follows Cuomo's lead.

Right now, near the apex, isn't the time it starts, but it will no doubt be measured in weeks, as opposed to months.

If not, we'll have far larger problems than a virus which per latest covid-19 website info will likely result in the deaths of 1 in 3,500 Americans (90k or so projection/320 mill population).

I think we're in agreement here. The big test will be where we are on May 1 when more people can't pay their rent and some will be 2 months behind. Obviously if we are at the same point we are now there will be no calls for changing anything. But if the numbers have even started to go down you will hear more clamoring for at least a "safe middle ground" going forward, as you say Cuomo and Trump are in agreement on this, just not in the timing and pace of it.

This is what I see happening:

Assume as I do that the numbers have started to go down by then even if only a little and the start of a trend. There is going to be a lot more pushback to get the "little things" open. Not necessarily things like pro sports, if they come back at all this year it will be without fans once they feel confident the players, coaches etc wont get sick, TV money is bigger than gate money anyway. Schools will play it safe and I think few if any will reopen for this school year and distance learning is here through June. Disneyland, etc. may be done until 2021. But you will probably start seeing things like restaurants being allowed to reopen with seating at every other table, maybe hairdressers/barbers with every other seat empty, and stores open if they follow the kinds of rules that food and drug stores do now (that will actually be the first to come back in my view, I see that happening as early as May sometime or June).

[adamz]

Originally Posted by Stylo

This is patently false re: immunity. Where are these new reports? If you’re going to make bold statements like that, you need to back it up with a source.

Lastly, the fact we are starting to see there’s tons of mild and asymptomatic infections that probably go months back that we had no idea about supports my assertion that it’s less severe and so widespread that herd immunity is coming before a vaccine. This spreads like wildfire.

Stylo-
As you pointed out in response to another post, we don't want to promulgate "fake science".

You are correct that there are asymptomatic cases of COVID. However, to my knowledge, there is no credible evidence that there have been mild and asymptomatic cases going back months that could generate substantial herd immunity. Can you provide a source for this? Because if it is not the case, then we're going to be in a really bad situation until such time as we have vaccinated 50% or more of our population.

adamz

[RunD1987]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Which is why we have to be careful about how and when we "reopen the economy". Also, as I think you said it a later post, we could start with non-food stores opening and doing the things that food and drug stores are doing now (limited entry, spaced out check out lines). But that said....

That's why we need different levels of quarantine

Practicing social distancing once cases drop significantly is still going to need to occur till more antivirals and a vaccine are ready

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by adamz

Stylo-
As you pointed out in response to another post, we don't want to promulgate "fake science".

You are correct that there are asymptomatic cases of COVID. However, to my knowledge, there is no credible evidence that there have been mild and asymptomatic cases going back months that could generate substantial herd immunity. Can you provide a source for this? Because if it is not the case, then we're going to be in a really bad situation until such time as we have vaccinated 50% or more of our population.

adamz

Some reading:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21D2IG

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-meaningless/

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...campaign=share

[ProudFairfielder]

Originally Posted by nico7

On most surfaces, brighter sunlight is even more likely to destroy microbes.

It is probably less of a concern with viruses than with bacteria, but a higher mutation rate (as well as death) occurs during DNA replication because of higher UV radiation. UV photons can be absorbed and form chemical bonds (crosslinks) between adjacent DNA bases in B-DNA conformation. That can result in copying errors by DNA polymerases. The same process can result in skin cancer. I would guess that microbial polymerases already have a high error rate because mutation is part of their survival strategy.

Another thing about warm weather is that molecular collisions happen faster in higher heat (that is pretty nearly the definition of heat). So it’s possible that some processes would be faster in higher heat, which is how PCR is regulated (heat-regulated polymerases). Maybe not very applicable to viruses. But heat can affect mutation rates even in the absence of higher UV.

I was just about to say this, and its UV's effect on COVID is even more severe because it is an ssRNA virus (single stranded RNA). Basically it is extremely vulnerable to refolding & deactivation when outside. Also remember unlike your skin which is hundreds of cells thick & has melannin all the virus has is a two molecule wide membrane.

TLDR is that it will get better with warmer weather.

[Cambium]

From yesterdays update::

Towns in CT with no cases...

Andover
Canaan
Canterbury
Chaplin
Colebrook
Hampton
Hartland
North Stonington
Salem
Scotland
Sprague
Sterling
Union
Warren


Sorted by most since yesterday. Waterbury moving up





Rate of increase of positive cases by county. State numbers are solid black line.. While New London jumped to 43% all other counties saw a decrease from previous day. Fairfield at their lowest increase of only 4%





Rate of increase of deaths per county and state. CT is black dotted line. Little bump up in deaths yesterday from prior day. (165 from 131). Middlesex with a 100% increase (2 to 4)