[ProudFairfielder]

Originally Posted by Cambium

From yesterdays update::

Towns in CT with no cases...

Andover
Canaan
Canterbury
Chaplin
Colebrook
Hampton
Hartland
North Stonington
Salem
Scotland
Sprague
Sterling
Union
Warren


Sorted by most since yesterday. Waterbury moving up





Rate of increase of positive cases by county. State numbers are solid black line.. While New London jumped to 43% all other counties saw a decrease from previous day. Fairfield at their lowest increase of only 4%





Rate of increase of deaths per county and state. CT is black dotted line. Little bump up in deaths yesterday from prior day. (165 from 131). Middlesex with a 100% increase (2 to 4)

All of the data is pointing towards a peak in 2 weeks (when plotted onto. a logistical trendline) ... hang in there everyone.

[adamz]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Some reading:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21D2IG

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-meaningless/

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...campaign=share

Thanks for the reading. I thought this from your first source was interesting:

“I think it extremely unlikely that the virus was present in Europe before January,” said Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia who has been tracking the evolving pandemic.

Hunter said that unless Italian scientists get positive results from samples taken and stored at that time, then the suggestion should not be given credence."

The work referenced in the Atlantic article is based on modeling viral mutation rate. It's interesting, as all modeling studies are, but we should be careful when we rely on models, don't you think?

The bottom line IMO is that the only way we're going to know whether a lot of us have had COVID and are immune is by testing for antibodies. If a lot of us already have antibodies, then this whole thing is going to be a lot easier to get over than if we don't. Because if we don't, we're going to have to deploy a vaccine ASAP to make sure that >50-60% of us are immune.

Mark Lipsitch from Harvard suggested the other day that we could have a vaccine within 3 months if we were willing to do something we normally don't: deliberately infect people to test whether the vaccine works. The downside is that 20% of people in the sham vaccinated control group will get really sick, and some will die, but I imagine we will have lot's of volunteers who think the risk is worth it if we just get our economy back on line.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by ProudFairfielder

All of the data is pointing towards a peak in 2 weeks (when plotted onto. a logistical trendline) ... hang in there everyone.

To me looks like we peaked at the end of March as far as rate of increases.

Originally Posted by adamz

Mark Lipsitch from Harvard suggested the other day that we could have a vaccine within 3 months if we were willing to do something we normally don't: deliberately infect people to test whether the vaccine works. The downside is that 20% of people in the sham vaccinated control group will get really sick, and some will die, but I imagine we will have lot's of volunteers who think the risk is worth it if we just get our economy back on line.

They will be getting paid $1000's for them or their families. I got asked to join a medication study once for $600. After reading all the paper work I didn't see it was worth the risk for that amount. So I say 1000's because I hope that's what they will pay given the circumstances of fast risky trials

[Stylo]

I don’t think the threat in 3 months will warrant that kind of extreme move. Also, vaccines can be as dangerous as they can be helpful if not assessed properly.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Stylo

I don’t think the threat in 3 months will warrant that kind of extreme move. Also, vaccines can be as dangerous as they can be helpful if not assessed properly.

Less will die from trying the vaccine than this virus though. No? Sad to say but this is an "invisible war" so people might step up to take the risk to save us and fight to find a vaccine.

[Stepfordct]

How do we exit this quarantine without a vaccine?
Again look at leaders fighting this.... Singapore, South Korea, Germany.
How do you go from quarantine to freedom without going back to where you started??

By succeeding now we keep most not infected. Do we lock down all borders? Close all business?
I agree with Cambiums point of view

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by Stepfordct

How do we exit this quarantine without a vaccine?
Again look at leaders fighting this.... Singapore, South Korea, Germany.
How do you go from quarantine to freedom without going back to where you started??

By succeeding now we keep most not infected. Do we lock down all borders? Close all business?
I agree with Cambiums point of view

You would have to continue social distancing for the first thing. A lot of people followed the distancing, a lot of stupid people did not. Letting down all restrictions at once will just start this all over again because the stupid people are the ones that will keep the infection going......unless it really does die off in the warm weather but the experts don't seem hopefull about that from what I have read.. It does not look like a vaccine is coming anytime soon either. Best hope is that they develop anti virals that work so at least there is a treatment until a vaccine is ready. I am getting my info from my sister who gets it from higher ups at Yale where she works and treats covid patients. She says a lot of people all over the world are looking into anti viral development but nothing concrete is on the horizon.

[CTartist]

Originally Posted by Stepfordct

How do we exit this quarantine without a vaccine?
Again look at leaders fighting this.... Singapore, South Korea, Germany.
How do you go from quarantine to freedom without going back to where you started??

By succeeding now we keep most not infected. Do we lock down all borders? Close all business?
I agree with Cambiums point of view

I know.......1/2 of me wants this to end and go out and the other 1/2 of me wants to stay in until there is a vaccine or I get the anti-body test and it's foolproof.


"New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is banking on antibody tests to identify individuals who've developed immunity to help restart the economy, "That would be very important for us to know because then healthcare workers that could go back to work," said Cuomo, "there are workers that could return back to the private sector."
Kroll warned, however, that a positive test doesn't mean a quick return to the workplace. "I do think it'll be part of our return to work," said Kroll. "[But] we're not going to be stay at home one day and then the next day everybody's allowed to go out."
Jeng himself has a conservative take about an immediate return to the workforce. He said antibody tests are only one piece of the diagnostic puzzle. "Thinking that you're completely immune," he said, "may put you at risk."
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...virus-n1176086

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Less will die from trying the vaccine than this virus though. No?

Not necessarily. You also don’t want it killing perfectly healthy people that haven’t even been exposed to virus.

Watch for antibody test results. That will change everything.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/04/...ovid-19-cases/

[ProudFairfielder]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Not necessarily. You also don’t want it killing perfectly healthy people that haven’t even been exposed to virus.

Watch for antibody test results. That will change everything.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/04/...ovid-19-cases/

If someone won't die from COVID they certainly won't die from the vaccine. I'm all for them.