[RunD1987]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/icelan...s-report-says/

Find this article interesting

Think Iceland is going to a big part in understanding this virus

Interesting and positive information scientist mention in this article is as more strands are created the virus becomes increasingly contagious but less deadly.

[ProudFairfielder]

Originally Posted by CT_Native

There's a lot of misinformation spreading (not anyone's fault, in particular), but I felt it was specifically important to address the antibody/vaccine topic. It's patently false to suggest that we are unable to make antibodies against COVID-19 virus -- unless someone has an immunological defect that would prevent antibody production, this process is an automatic function of the immune system to a foreign infectious invader. Any modern, entry-level biology textbook will describe this and how it works.

Also, COVID-19 virus is an RNA virus, but that doesn't give you enough information to make any generalized statements about the strand of virus itself. To put it in layman terms, there are numerous RNA viruses that mutate slowly and others that mutate rapidly. RNA viruses have the potential to be highly mutative over a short amount of time due to there being less checks and balances involved in the RNA replication process, but it's not a guarantee. Scientists must study each virus individually, which has been ongoing with COVID-19 virus since December 2019.

The latest preliminary information about the mutation characteristics for COVID-19 virus appear to be highly positive with regards to our ability to make an effective vaccine.



What a slow mutation rate also means is that those who are infected are significantly less likely to experience reinfection, especially in the short-/mid-term. These are all positive developments.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/30/covid...ne-sequencing/

The other important thing to consider is its large genome size. Therefore, while RNA viruses do mutate faster (in terms of raw nucleotides/ year) because its genome is so large the change is comparatively small.

[Stylo]

I posted this before about the mutation of this virus.

But SARS has a molecular proofreading system that reduces its mutation rate, and the new coronavirus’s similarity to SARS at the genomic level suggests it does, too. “That makes the mutation rate much, much lower than for flu or HIV,” Farzan said. That lowers the chance that the virus will evolve in some catastrophic way to, say, become significantly more lethal.

The coronavirus “may not change [genetically] at all” in a way that alters function, said biologist Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh, who has been analyzing the genomes of the 2019-nCoV’s from dozens of patients. “It is transmitting quite well already so it may not have to ‘evolve’ to be endemic.”

Any evolution that does take place in an endemic coronavirus, including one that spikes seasonally, might well be toward less virulence. “It doesn’t want to kill you before you transmit it,” Farzan said. “One would therefore expect a slow attenuation” of virulence if the virus becomes like seasonal flu. Dead people don’t transmit viruses, “and even people sitting in their beds and shivering” because they are seriously ill “don’t transmit that well,” he said.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

I tend to agree. I would actually favor a progressive reduction on restrictions once we see we are on the downside past the apex. Perhaps limit restaurants to 30% occupancy first 2 weeks as a test, then 40% for 2 weeks, then 50% for 2, then 60% for 2 weeks, cresting at 70% 2 weeks later.

Sports arenas, and concert halls should be closed, by legislation, for all of 2020, in any state with 25% or more of the tri-state per capita case rate.

Theaters I would favor reopening with every 4th seat available in a pattern which always allows 6+ feet of open space in any direction.

Casinos..closed unti 2021.

Forgot about casinos.....agree with theatres.

Originally Posted by Devan6221

So a lot of what you say is based on opinion without basis as you have no idea what could become of things because we have never experienced anything like this in our lifetime. And where do you get your “come early May” thoughts? Where are your thoughts even grounded? It looks very similar to the kind of thoughts that shut our country down. You know...fear, conjecture, China says it works...
When you speak of “relative safety” I don’t even know what you mean by that....Do you have any thoughts of what the relative impact might be on the state of our people’s economics (and notably the underprivileged) if we shut this country down for months and months on end. This health scare does not cancel out the very real issues of the economic tumult we are dropping into—which also impacts health immensely. Oh and neither you nor Bill Gates knows what the stakes are....you see, we haven’t been down this road. So it hasn’t been tested— a little science for you.

And of course i know that we are too deep in with all of the reckless behavior of the media and the CDC that we can’t just jump and reopen. But i can question the science behind closing the country. And I can say it is reckless. It’s interesting that the experts can go by faulty models, few case studies and can wreck our economy and mental health but they won’t condone a less than scientific approach for a drug, isn’t it?
Oh and I’m not a dude, dude. But i hope you can respect my thoughts even if I’m not....dude.

Sorry, partially based on a wrong conjecture on the name "Devan" but I often just say "dude" or (to a group) "guys" regardless of gender, no intention there but you make a good point, again my apologies.

Yes, I'm far from an expert it's as much conjecture as you have. In some sense I am agreeing, I think in a month unless we are truly at the same daily levels we are now (and if we do all bets are off and I have no idea what the solution is) we will have to start thinking about the very things you are saying. If you read some of my earlier posts, I used to think almost exactly like you and what gives me pause is the fear that reopening too early will produce a new wave that while not catastropic will get people so scared to go everywhere that we wreck the economy even worse. No worries.

Originally Posted by Stylo

Millions were infected. Millions are infected. No amount of shutting down will change that. It spreads too easily.

Even if true, if you start having an increase in infections even if just a little due to opening things up too soon people will become really scared to go out and you'll have bigger problems.

[Cambium]

Someone fact check this.

[WouldLoveTo]

Cam, I saw that posted somewhere, but I don't think the abortion numbers were that high. WHO estimates there are 40-50 million abortions yearly or 125K daily.

The numbers I found for AIDS would be 126K in a 2 month period. And none of the numbers I found are current.

[RunD1987]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...h-rates-2020-3

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by RunD1987

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...h-rates-2020-3

That sorta math wouldn’t pass basic algebra.

We can’t have an accurate death rate without knowing the total infected and we are nowhere near knowing that until there’s an antibody test. Flu is well understood and studied, so the death rate is far, far more accurate in comparison.

The death rate is probably very close to flu. It’s the fast spread that could make it deadlier in totality.

Read this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-meaningless/

[ProudFairfielder]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Someone fact check this.

Looks like it's from a conservative news feed given that
1) it lists "Wuhan" virus
2) it mentions abortions as deaths

Not saying it's invalid but I'd be wary of the numbers. Also again note that many countries are messing with the COVID numbers

[RunD1987]

I see only 3 scenarios...

Scenario 1- Continue current lockdown and in a few weeks return State to normalcy. Though returning to normalcy. Few weeks later though COVID-19 cases spike, hospitals are beyond capacity, supplies are low, death toll rises, and many businesses are shuttered due to workers calling out.

Scenario 2 - Opening the State back in May the warm weather and individuals immunity to COVID-19 expands. Cases remain stagnant with a slight drop. Economy bounces back. Still restricting large gatherings, sport events, and concerts.

Scenario 3 - Shut down of economy and businesses till things cool off. Without UBI or anyway to help keep the economy afloat it tanks.