[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by Stylo

There’s no indication at this point that millions would’ve died if we’d done nothing. Mortality rate keeps getting lowered and lowered the more we learn about its prevalence.

Exactly.

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by Comp625

That's rough, sorry to hear. Do you know if there are plans to re-hire those employees once things get back to normal and/or some kind of unofficial promise that was made to them?

Absolutely the plan.Everyone that got let go will be able to come back......slowly of course. They are all good people .

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Stylo

There’s no indication at this point that millions would’ve died if we’d done nothing. Mortality rate keeps getting lowered and lowered the more we learn about its prevalence.

While that's my gut feeling, this virus is very much an unknown which is why all of the things that sound like a dystopian sci fi novel have happened. We don't really know how easily it's transmitted, to what extent people are/were "carriers" that never got sick but spread it, or even if people can get reinfected (though what's going on in South Korea now sounds more like a "lingering" of the virus, which isn't good either).

What we need to do is get answers sooner rather than later. I know there's a lot of frustration with how long this is going on, even Cuomo today said he wants to have a talk soon with Murphy and Lamont about how and when we can reopen but we really have only one chance to get this right. We don't want a situation where people are too scared to go out (which is what would happen if we suddenly get a lot of new infections) or where because we get so many reinfections we are doing all these measures a 2nd time. We will be in a lot more trouble than we are now if that happens and with less of a way to reverse it quickly.

[Comp625]

Originally Posted by Stylo

There’s no indication at this point that millions would’ve died if we’d done nothing. Mortality rate keeps getting lowered and lowered the more we learn about its prevalence.

That's the thing; we currently don't know enough to say one way or the other, IMO. The lack of scientific knowledge (from poor testing to unknown treatments and vaccines) is fueling the fear factor. But is it worth it to gamble human life and resume society to limit economic damage? It's a very "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario.

• This recent Morgan Stanley projection (attached) is interesting. It models society re-opening in early July, but that another wave of COVID-19 is inevitable come December. But I actually think the second wave will come sooner...
• Why? Based on this CDC journal article published April 7th, their models now calculate an R naught of 5.7. That's double the contagious infection rate than was previously thought.

Originally Posted by CDC journal article

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

While I know several tertiary people through association who have COVID-19, none have died. So to say the realization of this virus's seriousness hasn't fully hit me (yet). However, it was disheartening to learn about a local Stop & Shop employee who died from coronavirus a few days ago. He was last at work on March 22 (exactly 3 Sundays ago from this writing). Even one death from this is too many.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

While that's my gut feeling, this virus is very much an unknown which is why all of the things that sound like a dystopian sci fi novel have happened. We don't really know how easily it's transmitted, to what extent people are/were "carriers" that never got sick but spread it, or even if people can get reinfected (though what's going on in South Korea now sounds more like a "lingering" of the virus, which isn't good either).

We know more now than we did a month ago. Estimates of a million+ dead are no longer happening for a reason. We now know with almost certainty: the R0 value without distancing is 3+, the amount of asymptomatic cases is around 50%, and the known cases is missing a ton of infected people which brings the mortality rate way down. Even CNN, the doomsday network, is admitting this now!

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...imates-vpx.cnn

Also the “reinfection” cases in Asia, I would bet are actually problems with the tests. But it makes good headlines.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by Comp625

That's the thing; we currently don't know enough to say one way or the other, IMO. The lack of scientific knowledge (from poor testing to unknown treatments and vaccines) is fueling the fear factor. But is it worth it to gamble human life and resume society to limit economic damage? It's a very "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario.

• This recent Morgan Stanley projection (attached) is interesting. It models society re-opening in early July, but that another wave of COVID-19 is inevitable come December. But I actually think the second wave will come sooner...
• Why? Based on this CDC journal article published April 7th, their models now calculate an R naught of 5.7. That's double the contagious infection rate than was previously thought.

While I know several tertiary people through association who have COVID-19, none have died. So to say the realization of this virus's seriousness hasn't fully hit me (yet). However, it was disheartening to learn about a local Stop & Shop employee who died from coronavirus a few days ago. He was last at work on March 22 (exactly 3 Sundays ago from this writing). Even one death from this is too many.

The higher the R value, the more mild this is, the closer we are to herd immunity. That’s good news, not bad.

The problem with the study you quoted is the data is from China, which cannot be trusted at this point.

[BPt111]

4/12/2020 update

Connecticut has 525 new positive COVID-19 cases, bringing our total to 12,035.

1,654 patients have been hospitalized and there have been 554 fatalities.

More than 41,220 patients have been tested.

[BPt111]

Top 10 most confirmed cases CT cities and towns 4/12/2020 updae

1. Stamford 1289 cases up by 100 cases
2. Norwalk 712 up by 22 cases and Bridgeport 712 cases up by 80 cases
3. Danbury 676 cases up by 26 cases
4. New Haven 618 cases up by 145 cases
5. Waterbury 518 cases up by 63 cases
6. Hartford 366 cases up by 66 cases
7. Greenwich 308 cases up by 14 cases
8. West Haven 258 cases up by 53 cases
9. Stratford 241 cases up by 18 cases
10. Hamden 227 cases up by 51 cases





Bottom 20

11. Milford 205 cases
12. Fairfield 180 cases
13. Westport 174 cases
14. Bristol 145 cases
15. Manchester, New Britain 136 cases
16. Darien 131 cases
17. Trumbull 126 cases
18. Enfield 125 cases
19. Ridgefield 124 cases
20. Middletown 120 cases



Bottom 32


21. Meriden 113 cases
22. Torrington 110 cases
23. East Hartford 111 cases
24. Bethel 103 cases
25. Branford 100 cases
26. Wilton Brookfield 94 cases
27. New Canaan 89 cases
28. Southington 85 cases
29. New Milford 87 cases
30. Bloomfield 79 cases
31. Ansonia 76 cases
32. Naugatuck 71 cases






New London 27 cases, Norwich 13 cases, Derby 46 cases, Windham 16 cases, Wallingford 70 cases

[BPt111]

4/12/2020

Summary: Bridgeport will overtake Norwalk within day or two they tied with 712 for second most COVID-19 cases in the state it been rapidly increasing since March 29th. Norwalk, Danbury, Westport, Greenwich cases are slowing while Bridgeport and Stamford are increasing by big numbers. New Haven will overtake Danbury within day or two for third most COVID-19 cases in the state. Waterbury, Hartford, Hamden, West Haven, Fairfield, Milford, Meriden, New Britain, Manchester, Enfield seeing sharp increases.

[Cambium]

April 12, 2020 Updates:: Lots of graphs!


As always, data comes from here: https://portal.ct.gov/Coronavirus


1st.... Good news!


Hospitalizations continue to drop. Even with the +61 today the 5 day Average is now at 70.





More good news... See it? Total cases is flattening! Hopefully its not the flattening like April 1 & 2. I think this one is real since we have this Stay at Home in place now.


Also note the new daily cases continues to drop! Only +525 today, lowest since April 5th







The bad news...The deaths continue to rise.

Interesting New Haven and Hartford have more than Fairfield county 16 days after the 4th death.. But Fairfield had a big jump starting the 18th day. I'm hoping to see this start leveling off.




Now, a look at the Top 45 most cases. Bridgeport now tied for 2nd place.





Lets look at the cases for the Top 5 towns.


Come on Stamford... Flatten it!





Good job Norwalk! Flattening it out! and Below 5% rate of increases past 5 days.





Come on Bridgeport, you can do better!





Danbury doing good!





New Haven..... what? Wrong way! Come on.





Last one......... Wilton...... Good job!





If you guys want to see a specific city in CT, just let me know! Gimme a few