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Old 06-10-2020, 04:07 PM
 
Location: near bears but at least no snakes
26,635 posts, read 28,427,436 times
Reputation: 50438

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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Thank you, very interesting. Immunity is tricky as with the coronas that cause a cold it can be as little as a few months, but it does seem to be a few years with SARS and MERS. And while I don't know if there's still any isolated MERS cases out there since it's more recent, no SARS cases since 2004.

My "gut" feeling is one way or another this "goes away". I think because it was so much more widespread than SARS and MERS it won't truly be gone but it will diminish to being like a cold much like how 1918 turned into a run of the mill flu eventually. I think there will be a vaccine, it won't be as "perfect" as hoped but will be enough to keep it further at bay. But I think it could take up to 2 years, though I feel confident it will be better enough a year from now that they will have the Olympics, but it may be a more limited one than planned with less events and some limits (maybe every other seat and half capacity) on crowds. Japan is proving to be really really good at controlling it already.
I wish there would be a vaccine, even a vaccine that doesn't work 100% and that they would make it available to those most at risk. Would be nice to have it in early 2021 but some say that there may never be one at all.

If not, then please let it just die out. I was just thinking...with the 1918 flu it died off probably because people stopped traveling the world and spreading it. They say it spread due to the returned WWI vets. In our modern world people will still be traveling and spreading this COVID so that's one difference. It will still be spreading around but it still could just weaken on its own somehow.
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Old 06-10-2020, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Coastal Connecticut
21,487 posts, read 27,723,916 times
Reputation: 6659
Quote:
Originally Posted by in_newengland View Post
I wish there would be a vaccine, even a vaccine that doesn't work 100% and that they would make it available to those most at risk. Would be nice to have it in early 2021 but some say that there may never be one at all.

If not, then please let it just die out. I was just thinking...with the 1918 flu it died off probably because people stopped traveling the world and spreading it. They say it spread due to the returned WWI vets. In our modern world people will still be traveling and spreading this COVID so that's one difference. It will still be spreading around but it still could just weaken on its own somehow.
Seems like Spanish Flu may have been more contagious (when you look spread factor: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...read-virus-all) and certainly more deadly - but not sure how much of that was lack of modern medicine. It did affect younger people a lot more than this though, and if we were to be faced with something like it now, the total lockdown would've made a lot of sense. I don't think we're dealing with something that's anything like it, but it begged comparison.
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Old 06-10-2020, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,242 posts, read 18,717,750 times
Reputation: 5068
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stylo View Post
Seems like Spanish Flu may have been more contagious (when you look spread factor: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...read-virus-all) and certainly more deadly - but not sure how much of that was lack of modern medicine. It did affect younger people a lot more than this though, and if we were to be faced with something like it now, the total lockdown would've made a lot of sense. I don't think we're dealing with something that's anything like it, but it begged comparison.
Even 14th century bubonic plague "petered out" (but it took almost a decade! And a 2nd, shorter (about 2-4 years) pandemic of it came back 300 or so years later. But since that was bacterial and not viral not sure it can be compared (and as such antibiotics would prevent it or something similar from ever getting here today). Now THAT would've certainly begged total lockdown.

Quote:
Originally Posted by in_newengland View Post
I wish there would be a vaccine, even a vaccine that doesn't work 100% and that they would make it available to those most at risk. Would be nice to have it in early 2021 but some say that there may never be one at all.

If not, then please let it just die out. I was just thinking...with the 1918 flu it died off probably because people stopped traveling the world and spreading it. They say it spread due to the returned WWI vets. In our modern world people will still be traveling and spreading this COVID so that's one difference. It will still be spreading around but it still could just weaken on its own somehow.
This is a very interesting article my sister showed me. He has a really good way of describing why I (and he) are very (though not 100%) confident on a vaccine ("we’ve put probably the hundred best hockey players we can on the vaccine ice. And so, we’re getting lots of shots on goal and they’re as good as they’re going to get."). Lots of other interesting points on it too.

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/co...yesXr60-HArhe8
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Old 06-10-2020, 05:39 PM
 
208 posts, read 111,548 times
Reputation: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stepfordct View Post
The takeaway here is about the media in and of itself.
How many times have you read an article about something in your wheelhouse. Something you might be kinda an expert about.....at least in your mind anyways.
How many times when you read something online about whichever subject that your knowledgeable about and your saying to yourself
WT#Heck.....( Don't want to be banned)

Seems to happen a lot some might say....
Excellent point. Here’s another thing you can do: (1) Pick a topic, (2) Pick a media outlet, and (3) Predict how they will cover it. Because ALL (both right and left) are more interested in pushing a position than they are in doing traditional reporting, you can predict their take on almost any topic with great accuracy.

Over the last several decades, the opinion pages have leaked over into the news pages. So the whole paper or whole web site slowly become one big opinion page.
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Old 06-10-2020, 05:41 PM
 
208 posts, read 111,548 times
Reputation: 348
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
If there is no vaccine and immunity is short, the likely scenario is that it will eventually weaken and join the 4 coronaviruses that make up a bad cold.
The other thing is that every patient that gets treated is a data point for doctors to see what kind of treatments are the best. That is constantly evolving, and over time doctors will be able to assess a new case and have more confidence in recommending a course of treatment for that person.
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Old 06-10-2020, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Coastal Connecticut
21,487 posts, read 27,723,916 times
Reputation: 6659
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pike320 View Post
Excellent point. Here’s another thing you can do: (1) Pick a topic, (2) Pick a media outlet, and (3) Predict how they will cover it. Because ALL (both right and left) are more interested in pushing a position than they are in doing traditional reporting, you can predict their take on almost any topic with great accuracy.

Over the last several decades, the opinion pages have leaked over into the news pages. So the whole paper or whole web site slowly become one big opinion page.
Yes, the problem is that the media influences public policy. Their dire panic absolutely affected decision making in politics for this pandemic. It may have done more damage than necessary.

This is a handy site to see the bias in real-time:

https://www.allsides.com/unbiased-balanced-news
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Old 06-10-2020, 06:19 PM
 
496 posts, read 440,336 times
Reputation: 646
Quote:
Originally Posted by in_newengland View Post
If not, then please let it just die out. I was just thinking...with the 1918 flu it died off probably because people stopped traveling the world and spreading it. They say it spread due to the returned WWI vets. In our modern world people will still be traveling and spreading this COVID so that's one difference. It will still be spreading around but it still could just weaken on its own somehow.
That's something I thought of too with all the travel. It's surprising this hasn't happened sooner, and it makes me worry this could happen again with other viruses more frequently.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Thank you, very interesting. Immunity is tricky as with the coronas that cause a cold it can be as little as a few months, but it does seem to be a few years with SARS and MERS. And while I don't know if there's still any isolated MERS cases out there since it's more recent, no SARS cases since 2004.

My "gut" feeling is one way or another this "goes away". I think because it was so much more widespread than SARS and MERS it won't truly be gone but it will diminish to being like a cold much like how 1918 turned into a run of the mill flu eventually. I think there will be a vaccine, it won't be as "perfect" as hoped but will be enough to keep it further at bay. But I think it could take up to 2 years, though I feel confident it will be better enough a year from now that they will have the Olympics, but it may be a more limited one than planned with less events and some limits (maybe every other seat and half capacity) on crowds. Japan is proving to be really really good at controlling it already.
One thing that I see different with this vs Spanish Flu is the asymptomatic spread and people having no symptoms. That isn't common with other viruses, at least that I'm aware of. If people knew they had this right away or at least earlier on, I don't think it would keep spreading so much. SARSs and MERs seemed to be more deadly and I think that hindered their becoming as widespread as this has.

One other big difference is simply social media and all of the 24 hour news sources around today. In 1918 you may not have even heard of the Spanish Flu pandemic but just knew that people were getting sick from something. Outside of the large cities much of the population didn't go out as much so there was probably less spread domestically through that as well. Not to mention shutting down then wasn't as big of a difference as it is now either, outside of again, the big cities.

As for Olympics I was wondering that as well. I remember reading about it on a website back in March or so and I think one of the reasons being offered for it to be cancelled was because other countries may not have it under control enough to come together to Japan. I do think that the continuing or cancelling of the Olympics could definitely be a big indicator as to where we are in this pandemic as a whole. Although due to the amount of planning and money spent on it, I'd lean toward them being cancelled earlier on out of precaution, and not necessarily that the pandemic isn't under better control. Not something that can be waited on until closer to the date to see how things unfold.
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Old 06-10-2020, 06:21 PM
 
496 posts, read 440,336 times
Reputation: 646
I was just wondering, have any of your opinions changed as to when you think this may not be an issue anymore? Especially those that said they expect things to be back to "normal" by the fall or sometime this year or next year. Or expecting that bans on gatherings won't last all summer. Have you pushed back your expectations as to dates or still about the same? Thanks.
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Old 06-10-2020, 07:26 PM
 
Location: near bears but at least no snakes
26,635 posts, read 28,427,436 times
Reputation: 50438
Quote:
Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4 View Post
I was just wondering, have any of your opinions changed as to when you think this may not be an issue anymore? Especially those that said they expect things to be back to "normal" by the fall or sometime this year or next year. Or expecting that bans on gatherings won't last all summer. Have you pushed back your expectations as to dates or still about the same? Thanks.
I'm not sure what to think but I do worry that it could come back by fall. People are out and about now, some are probably thinking this is all over and they can act as if things are back to normal. But since the virus is still out there, just as it was before lockdown, I'm afraid it will spread and we'll be right back where we started from. So probably I think that July and August will see more cases but it will get even worse because of people going on vacations and spreading it around even more. There's a lot more travel in the summer than in the winter when this started. So I think I dread fall.
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Old 06-10-2020, 10:21 PM
 
Location: Coastal Connecticut
21,487 posts, read 27,723,916 times
Reputation: 6659
Quote:
Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4 View Post
I was just wondering, have any of your opinions changed as to when you think this may not be an issue anymore? Especially those that said they expect things to be back to "normal" by the fall or sometime this year or next year. Or expecting that bans on gatherings won't last all summer. Have you pushed back your expectations as to dates or still about the same? Thanks.
I’ve been pretty consistent in what I’ve expected. I presumed by June it would be waning. Another wave in fall is possible but it will not be nearly as bad as the peak we saw. The public will not tolerate another lockdown, especially as it’s better understood the risk factor and who it mainly affects.
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