[Stylo]

Imperial College had the grossly inaccurate model that lockdown policy was based on. This was done by Neil Ferguson, who also grossly overshot past epidemics like SARS and Ebola. He was removed from his post after having an affair during lockdown. History will not look kindly upon him, methinks.

Oxford team, including Sunetra Gupta, disputed it with their own SIR model and have been consistent recommending social distancing, protection of vulnerable, but no lockdowns.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Imperial College had the grossly inaccurate model that lockdown policy was based on. This was done by Neil Ferguson, who also grossly overshot past epidemics like SARS and Ebola. He was removed from his post after having an affair during lockdown. History will not look kindly upon him, methinks.

Oxford team, including Sunetra Gupta, disputed it with their own SIR model and have been consistent recommending social distancing, protection of vulnerable, but no lockdowns.

OK I got it, yeah the model with the millions and millions of deaths. Ironically both are making vaccines and the Oxford group looks like the frontrunner (not just between the two but worldwide unless you believe Russia and China).

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

OK I got it, yeah the model with the millions and millions of deaths. Ironically both are making vaccines and the Oxford group looks like the frontrunner (not just between the two but worldwide unless you believe Russia and China).

The model had something like 500k deaths in the US by now even with a stricter lockdown than we had.

It assumed a very high IFR with not much basis in reality.

If he screwed up every last epidemic model, you’d think there’d have been some skepticism.

[kidyankee764]

The latest CT update, although CT remains amongst the best in the country statistically, moves CT from the “on track to contain covid”, or green, to “slow disease growth”, or yellow. For those who don’t know what I’m referring to, it’s the US map updated daily released to the media.

https://covidactnow.org/?s=756131

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

The latest CT update, although CT remains amongst the best in the country statistically, moves CT from the “on track to contain covid”, or green, to “slow disease growth”, or yellow. For those who don’t know what I’m referring to, it’s the US map updated daily released to the media.

https://covidactnow.org/?s=756131

That’s more due to that site changing their measurement criteria than any notable change in CT.

Noted here:

https://twitter.com/covidactnow/stat...803397632?s=21

[JGBigGreen]

As you noted, Ferguson has been rightly criticized for his work on modeling both COVID and past outbreaks. The fact that the US and UK relied so heavily on such shoddy modeling is unfortunate.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-experts.html

Originally Posted by Stylo

The model had something like 500k deaths in the US by now even with a stricter lockdown than we had.

It assumed a very high IFR with not much basis in reality.

If he screwed up every last epidemic model, you’d think there’d have been some skepticism.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Stylo

That’s more due to that site changing their measurement criteria than any notable change in CT.

Noted here:

https://twitter.com/covidactnow/stat...803397632?s=21

Although I do worry about a "comeback" I think in CT/NY and the Northeast in general the numbers are so low that these changes aren't statistically significant. The important thing is most of the states around here have positivity rate consistently fluctuating on small parts of either side of 1%, hospitalizations are steady to slowly decreasing, and number of daily deaths fluctuates in the single numbers to worse case low 2 digit numbers

[7 Wishes]

Just found this article that may be promising news for immunity:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johncum.../#48be7a2c3524

[whatsgoingon4]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Another interesting though slightly morbid calculation, if you assume the mortality rate in Florida will be lower, let’s say .3%, and ignoring lagging deaths, you could say at least 1.8 million are infected so far. That’s only just under 10% infected. Does that mean Florida will hit 10,000 deaths before this has dissipated like in CT, if the threshold is 20%?

If you assume their mortality rate is even lower due to younger cases, what we’ve learned, and better treatments—let’s say .02%, double a bad seasonal flu. 12.8% infected. 8500 deaths threshold before hitting 20%.

Sweden, cases and deaths have plummeted and they aren’t widely wearing masks in public. At .6% mortality (they were hit earlier like CT) they currently have about 10% infected. If you assumed .3% mortality due to healthier overall population, 20%.

(It’s crazy that CT has over twice the death rate of Sweden when you think of all the bad press they’ve gotten)

Also, the threshold might be different depending on density.

Example: 25-35% NYC (high density), 20% CT (medium density), 12-15% Sweden (lower density)

Yuck. I don't like the sound of that (since it sounds like FL still has a long way to go) but of course more importantly so many more deaths. Not sure how it will go here, since unlike CT, masking and distancing isn't nearly as prevalent, but I have been seeing more masks this week and more places are finally "laying down the law" on it.

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I think it is still very bad in FL, but even mainstream media seems to be saying today that they see it starting to reach a peak and go down. They're saying the same about TX, AZ, and CA too. I'm hoping we're about to turn a corner.


Schools may back off, Trump is getting nervous about his reelection and he suddenly changed course today and said the South and West may have to delay schools (while also moving the RNC back to the original muted convention in NC).

It is still very bad here. Deaths today the highest at 132. I hope it turns around for all the hot spots right in a month or two, but I'm hearing Ohio and some of the midwest may be next.

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Just found this article that may be promising news for immunity:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johncum.../#48be7a2c3524

I read that, very interesting. It's amazing how far research has come on this, even though so much of what we know might be the case are things we already knew for other viruses.

I myself have been slightly hopeful, but overall skeptical about possible pre-existing immunity and lasting immunity in general. As it seemed like after the antibody tests were a bit of a letdown, I felt like we were trying to find a rug where immunity might be hiding under, but we didn't have many rugs left to look. But the idea that this is finally getting more exposure, makes me think there might just be something to it all.

[Stylo]

CT numbers have been extremely low for a while. It’s time to enter phase 3.