[Stylo]

AP digging into the high death rate in NY area:

https://apnews.com/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Stylo

It’s already fizzling out in many places.

50-75% of the public vaccinated, donzo. But we won’t need it, unless it comes out REALLY quick.

New IFR estimates are now in the .2% range. It could be even lower if this is true: https://bgr.com/2020/08/03/coronavir...ovid-19-cases/

There will also come a time when it’s time to realize our response is now overblown, despite being cautious early on, and start questioning whether we need a “new normal” at all. Certain measures like long term care home protection can be longer term but at some point the mental toll on those residents is going to be brutal.

I miss when the strategy was flatten the curve and not hide until it’s 100% gone.

I think it may have fizzled out here (and we flattened the curve), but there are plenty of places I wouldn't quite say that yet. Also, 0.2% IFR? Where? How? If it's the number I think you're thinking about (infection rate?) even CT is averaging 0.6% and NY 0.9% (which is still impressive). But I do agree with the last part, at some point they are just going to end the "new normal" no matter what (SteveM85 would say on Nov 4 ), again unless you start seeing Ebola level death rates which we know won't happen, no way do I see this going on more than another year.

[JGBigGreen]

IFR is infection fatality rate.

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I think it may have fizzled out here (and we flattened the curve), but there are plenty of places I wouldn't quite say that yet. Also, 0.2% IFR? Where? How? If it's the number I think you're thinking about (infection rate?) even CT is averaging 0.6% and NY 0.9% (which is still impressive). But I do agree with the last part, at some point they are just going to end the "new normal" no matter what (SteveM85 would say on Nov 4 ), again unless you start seeing Ebola level death rates which we know won't happen, no way do I see this going on more than another year.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I think it may have fizzled out here (and we flattened the curve), but there are plenty of places I wouldn't quite say that yet. Also, 0.2% IFR? Where? How? If it's the number I think you're thinking about (infection rate?) even CT is averaging 0.6% and NY 0.9% (which is still impressive). But I do agree with the last part, at some point they are just going to end the "new normal" no matter what (SteveM85 would say on Nov 4 ), again unless you start seeing Ebola level death rates which we know won't happen, no way do I see this going on more than another year.

Apologies, I don’t have the link. Read it today but didn’t save. But it mentioned an IFR as high as 1% in March, and closer to .2% now.

If I find it again I’ll post it.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Apologies, I don’t have the link. Read it today but didn’t save. But it mentioned an IFR as high as 1% in March, and closer to .2% now.

If I find it again I’ll post it.

Thats ok I thought it was simple infection rate. Fatality rate i can believe

[J. Fiction]

From a recently completed study:

"In conclusion, we estimated IFR estimates for SARS-CoV-2 by age and sex in one of the largest
serosurveys in the world. Our overall IFR estimates (from 0.83% to 1.07%) are about 10 times larger
than those for seasonal influenza, which provides support for strong control measures."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...722v1.full.pdf

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by J. Fiction

From a recently completed study:

"In conclusion, we estimated IFR estimates for SARS-CoV-2 by age and sex in one of the largest
serosurveys in the world. Our overall IFR estimates (from 0.83% to 1.07%) are about 10 times larger
than those for seasonal influenza, which provides support for strong control measures."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...722v1.full.pdf

It seems as if IFR in places like Spain was very high in March and early April when most deaths occurred. Probably because there, like many places, they were too quick to intubate and their nursing homes were overrun.

The problem with their study is they did serology tests until June and antibodies for mild and asymptomatic cases can often either wane quickly or not be detectable at all.

[J. Fiction]

Originally Posted by Stylo

It seems as if IFR in places like Spain was very high in March and early April when most deaths occurred. Probably because there, like many places, they were too quick to intubate and their nursing homes were overrun.

The problem with their study is they did serology tests until June and antibodies for mild and asymptomatic cases can often either wane quickly or not be detectable at all.

The study controls for the nursing home factor:

"Through July 15, 2020, 19,228 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 24,778 excess all-cause
deaths were estimated to occur among individuals residing in Spain outside of nursing homes. The
distribution by age and sex was similar for both sources of death data: 64% of the COVID-19 deaths
and 62% of the excess deaths occurred among men; 79% of confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 83% of
excess deaths occurred among individuals aged 70 years or older. Overall, the IFR estimate (95% CI) was 0.83% (0.78, 0.89) for confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 1.07% (1.00, 1.15) for excess deaths."

"Because the ENE-COVID serosurvey was conducted among the non-institutionalized Spanish
population, we excluded deaths in long-term care facilities from the IFR estimates. "

Given that you apparently haven't read the study, I won't bother responding to the rest of your points.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by J. Fiction

The study controls for the nursing home factor:

"Through July 15, 2020, 19,228 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 24,778 excess all-cause
deaths were estimated to occur among individuals residing in Spain outside of nursing homes. The
distribution by age and sex was similar for both sources of death data: 64% of the COVID-19 deaths
and 62% of the excess deaths occurred among men; 79% of confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 83% of
excess deaths occurred among individuals aged 70 years or older. Overall, the IFR estimate (95% CI) was 0.83% (0.78, 0.89) for confirmed COVID-19 deaths and 1.07% (1.00, 1.15) for excess deaths."

"Because the ENE-COVID serosurvey was conducted among the non-institutionalized Spanish
population, we excluded deaths in long-term care facilities from the IFR estimates. "

Given that you apparently haven't read the study, I won't bother responding to the rest of your points.

I skimmed it. I don't have time to read it right now. Regardless, IFR was absolutely higher in the early weeks of the pandemic as treatments have far improved.

It would make their study on the high side for IFR seroprevalence studies.

More info on the other points:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...05.21.108308v1

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.20130252v1

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-35331/v1

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....21.20132449v1

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...05.14.095414v2

[Stylo]

Another unfortunate second order effect. I lost a friend recently due to OD...

https://www.newhavenindependent.org/...opioid_crisis/