[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Where do I begin? There's LOTS of indication that this will sputter out before "90%" of the remaining population is infected. There's dozens of studies around:

1. Long lasting t-cell immunity
2. POSSIBLE cross protection from other coronavirus exposure (it's really telling that Fauci backed this theory until Rand Paul and Scott Atlas backed it: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/cor...244852012.html)
3. Antibody seroprevalence studies not showing true immunity. Antibodies wane too fast. So any moment in time will never show the true spread. A Japanese study followed the same people throughout a period and found a huge number eventually developed antibodies. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....21.20198796v1
4. Just in general, no pandemic in history has infected anywhere near 90% of the population before sputtering out. Typically in the 15-25% range. There's this media obsession with it being a "novel" virus. Yes, it's a new strain of coronavirus of which there are many, but every flu pandemic was a new strain too. This isn't the first time something has spread that we have not seen before. There's been several studies looking at heterogeneity in susceptibility.
5. The obsession with testing and cases right now is making it seem like the problem is worse than it really is. Oversensitive 40 ct tests have an unacceptable level of false positive. Never in history have we put asymptomatic cases under such a microscope, testing people constantly without symptoms. This muddies everything, including hospitalizations and deaths. At least Belgium has changed their policy on this. Hopefully more do, but with the current political climate in the US–good luck with that.
6. Again, when you put things under a microscope they always look scarier.

There's a disturbing amount of experts on Twitter that seem very politically motivated to make this worse than it really is. Half their Tweets are done in anger at Trump, even pre-pandemic. I am not a Trump guy, but I wish politics didn't have such a heavy hand on this crisis. It's really sad.

I think there's also a little bit of, if we don't keep people on their feet, we'll all go back to normal and it'll be a mess from the CDC. Versus a Sweden where the populace trusts the government, and vice versa.

\
Lots to process here. Thanks!

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by in_newengland

If people in this country would just wear masks and social distance, we could probably re-open everything.

I will always agree with this. I just had a covid meeting this morning with my 2 new hires(both in their 20's). I had to reinforce that their masks have to be over their nose in my dept. Besides that I do think mask wearing early on would have kept numbers down more. I am curious about what may or may not happen with the flu. Will mask wearing and distancing keep the flu spread down? Flu and covid at the same time would really be pretty bad. I got my flu shot yesterday regardless......I do not want the flu I had in the beginning of the year again.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Where do I begin? There's LOTS of indication that this will sputter out before "90%" of the remaining population is infected. There's dozens of studies around:

1. Long lasting t-cell immunity
2. POSSIBLE cross protection from other coronavirus exposure (it's really telling that Fauci backed this theory until Rand Paul and Scott Atlas backed it: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/cor...244852012.html)
3. Antibody seroprevalence studies not showing true immunity. Antibodies wane too fast. So any moment in time will never show the true spread. A Japanese study followed the same people throughout a period and found a huge number eventually developed antibodies. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....21.20198796v1
4. Just in general, no pandemic in history has infected anywhere near 90% of the population before sputtering out. Typically in the 15-25% range. There's this media obsession with it being a "novel" virus. Yes, it's a new strain of coronavirus of which there are many, but every flu pandemic was a new strain too. This isn't the first time something has spread that we have not seen before. There's been several studies looking at heterogeneity in susceptibility.
5. The obsession with testing and cases right now is making it seem like the problem is worse than it really is. Oversensitive 40 ct tests have an unacceptable level of false positive. Never in history have we put asymptomatic cases under such a microscope, testing people constantly without symptoms. This muddies everything, including hospitalizations and deaths. At least Belgium has changed their policy on this. Hopefully more do, but with the current political climate in the US–good luck with that.
6. Again, when you put things under a microscope they always look scarier.

There's a disturbing amount of experts on Twitter that seem very politically motivated to make this worse than it really is. Half their Tweets are done in anger at Trump, even pre-pandemic. I am not a Trump guy, but I wish politics didn't have such a heavy hand on this crisis. It's really sad.

I think there's also a little bit of, if we don't keep people on their feet, we'll all go back to normal and it'll be a mess from the CDC. Versus a Sweden where the populace trusts the government, and vice versa.

I am more and more of the theory that this starts to wind down when the election is resolved somehow and we get out of it sometime in 2021 (but how far into 2021 I have no idea). Regardless of who wins, more of a "once we have certainty" than rather "if the regime changes".....

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

I will always agree with this. I just had a covid meeting this morning with my 2 new hires(both in their 20's). I had to reinforce that their masks have to be over their nose in my dept. Besides that I do think mask wearing early on would have kept numbers down more. I am curious about what may or may not happen with the flu. Will mask wearing and distancing keep the flu spread down? Flu and covid at the same time would really be pretty bad. I got my flu shot yesterday regardless......I do not want the flu I had in the beginning of the year again.

Here's the thing.

The more we lengthen the pandemic, the longer of a timeline vulnerable people are put at risk, as well as risk what immunity we have built up waning.

It's a ridiculous strategy for a disease this widespread and contagious. We need a targeted approach, not a sledgehammer.

[SteveM85]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I am more and more of the theory that this starts to wind down when the election is resolved somehow and we get out of it sometime in 2021 (but how far into 2021 I have no idea). Regardless of who wins, more of a "once we have certainty" than rather "if the regime changes".....

Groundhog Day in Feb will have a new meaning. Early spring or 4 more years of Covid.

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Here's the thing.


It's a ridiculous strategy for a disease this widespread and contagious. We need a targeted approach, not a sledgehammer.

Like?

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

Like?

Over 60 or seriously obese wear masks in public. Those that live with those people take extra precautions and we support them financially and in other ways (distance learning) in order to isolate.

The rest of society lives as normal with some light social distancing (e.g. no huge indoor events without masks), wash hands, etc.

A lot of the country is already doing this. Although maybe they need to be more careful about vulnerable. Feel like there's only two ways of thinking: hide forever or ain't no thang.

Stop obsessing over case numbers.

There are experts pushing for a targeted approach now that we know who this affects, but they are drowned out by the media at best, or labeled as conspiracy theorists or nuts at worst. Meanwhile in UK they are flirting with continued lockdowns, and certainly starting to suggest the same here come winter.

[gmdealerguy]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Over 60 or seriously obese wear masks in public. Those that live with those people take extra precautions and we support them financially and in other ways (distance learning) in order to isolate.

The rest of society lives as normal with some light social distancing (e.g. no huge indoor events without masks), wash hands, etc.

A lot of the country is already doing this. Although maybe they need to be more careful about vulnerable. Feel like there's only two ways of thinking: hide forever or ain't no thang.

Stop obsessing over case numbers.

There are experts pushing for a targeted approach now that we know who this affects, but they are drowned out by the media at best, or labeled as conspiracy theorists or nuts at worst. Meanwhile in UK they are flirting with continued lockdowns, and certainly starting to suggest the same here come winter.

Interesting.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by gmdealerguy

Interesting.

Would be done a lot quicker and probably less overall deaths (and human suffering).

Here's a good thread: https://twitter.com/federicolois/sta...30969356890112

[Pike320]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Stop obsessing over case numbers.

Case numbers mean very little now. I live in a college town, and the “case-demic” has jumped up to 50-80 cases per day since the students returned and are getting tested all the time.

BUT... the number of people hospitalized today is SIX people. The number hospitalized has not exceeded 10 for about a month now. As far as deaths, about the only people who are dying are in their 80s. And the death count has not been more than 1 or 2 people in any given day’s report.

I’m old enough and have enough issues that I should be careful. But people of normal age with normal health do not need to do much of anything.