[Stylo]

Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4

Anyone see this happening? I get the feeling it already is. People are used to it now. If it's the same next year it won't be a shock, since we're used to cancellations and having to wear a rag over out face to go anywhere.

Eventually most people will accept the risk and reject the restrictions. It's edging towards that now.

Also, eventually a virus will run out of susceptible hosts. It depends how long this is drawn out though, if the window of immunity is "reset". Drawing it out could ultimately lead to a lot more deaths, as you extend the period of time vulnerable can be exposed.

[Shartnado42]

Originally Posted by Stylo

Eventually most people will accept the risk and reject the restrictions. It's edging towards that now.

Also, eventually a virus will run out of susceptible hosts. It depends how long this is drawn out though, if the window of immunity is "reset". Drawing it out could ultimately lead to a lot more deaths, as you extend the period of time vulnerable can be exposed.

The Flu is a virus, no?

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4

I'd feel better about this if I knew there was a true end game here. We've been in this for 7 months more or less. I have a feeling the next 7 months are going to be exactly the same.

This coronavirus has a built in error checking sequence which makes it much less likely to mutate. Now I know people think mutation of the virus is a bad thing, in some circumstances it is, but viruses tend to mutate into less harmful. So if it cannot mutate measurably, that means it's less likely to attenuate, correct?

And since it is also so contagious, it doesn't NEED to attenuate, correct?

So aside from a vaccine, which I don't have high hopes of (it sounds to me the trials are mostly designed to see if it prevents mild illnesses, not hospitalizations and deaths), what else do we have going for us? Seems to me the ultimate strategy will be to keep doing what we're doing, but it's not really going to stop deaths, rather just spread them out.

I don't see how we can ever expect this "war on contagion" to end. We also didn't have tests for pandemics like the Spanish Flu. It never left us, it's still here as a virus, but we were unable to test to even know what the counts were, like we can today for this virus.

I imagine the Spanish Flu largely ended because WWI ended, decreasing exposure, and the public had enough of it. I don't see those things ever happening with this pandemic. I think most likely, it will morph from being "an emergency" and some new bizarre experience to being some everyday thing where it's just habit to not see family or friends as much, and wear a mask in public, stop social events, etc.

Anyone see this happening? I get the feeling it already is. People are used to it now. If it's the same next year it won't be a shock, since we're used to cancellations and having to wear a rag over out face to go anywhere.

Two things ended the Spanish Flu:

1) It infected far more people than COVID has so far, and more so as a percent of the population.

2) It eventually attenuated. It still exists today, but in a much much milder form.

What I think will happen if we are still like this a year from now we are just going to somehow figure out another way to deal and live with it, what and how I don't know. We probably will have better but imperfect treatments and a better but imperfect vaccine or vaccines.

I also think for different reasons than the cynics once the election is settled we might start seeing this viewed and handled differently. This is regardless of who wins, as someone said the current political impasse is having a huge effect on how this is being handled. Once we have short term certainty of government for the next 2 years, we'll get tired of being completely without large events, we'll decide we can't run schools the way we are right now, and we'll just figure out a currently unknown different and better way and go from there.

Originally Posted by Stylo

Eventually most people will accept the risk and reject the restrictions. It's edging towards that now.

Also, eventually a virus will run out of susceptible hosts. It depends how long this is drawn out though, if the window of immunity is "reset". Drawing it out could ultimately lead to a lot more deaths, as you extend the period of time vulnerable can be exposed.

There's also the possibility that each time you get it you have some "developed" hidden immunity and your illness is weaker and weaker each time. Though this isn't why it happened, even the 1300s Black Death ran it course (granted it took about 6 or 7 years and did come back 300 years later). I see that kind of happening too.

[whatsgoingon4]

What's a little interesting to me, but you don't hear much about is that during the Spanish Flu, although it's generally talked about how places did shut down, it was not lockdown style for months on end. It was left up to local mayors mostly, and there were no blanket lockdowns. Some cities shut down things like theaters and the performing arts down for a few weeks, but in no way was everything in multiple states shut down for seven months and counting to flatten the curve. Even a month would have probably been unheard of.

There were also very few places with mask mandates, and they also weren't indefinite.

Not saying that was totally right thing to do, but I'm saying we've never done something like this in the history of our country, and most likely anywhere in the world before, let alone for this long.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by Shartnado42

The Flu is a virus, no?

It mutates much faster.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4

What's a little interesting to me, but you don't hear much about is that during the Spanish Flu, although it's generally talked about how places did shut down, it was not lockdown style for months on end. It was left up to local mayors mostly, and there were no blanket lockdowns. Some cities shut down things like theaters and the performing arts down for a few weeks, but in no way was everything in multiple states shut down for seven months and counting to flatten the curve. Even a month would have probably been unheard of.

There were also very few places with mask mandates, and they also weren't indefinite.

Not saying that was totally right thing to do, but I'm saying we've never done something like this in the history of our country, and most likely anywhere in the world before, let alone for this long.

We also had 2 other flu pandemics in the 20th century, with serious mortality, when adjusted for population. And they were considerably deadlier to the young. This ain't the first and won't be the last.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4

What's a little interesting to me, but you don't hear much about is that during the Spanish Flu, although it's generally talked about how places did shut down, it was not lockdown style for months on end. It was left up to local mayors mostly, and there were no blanket lockdowns. Some cities shut down things like theaters and the performing arts down for a few weeks, but in no way was everything in multiple states shut down for seven months and counting to flatten the curve. Even a month would have probably been unheard of.

There were also very few places with mask mandates, and they also weren't indefinite.

Not saying that was totally right thing to do, but I'm saying we've never done something like this in the history of our country, and most likely anywhere in the world before, let alone for this long.

Also what you don't hear much about is a different kind of pandemic (especially for children) for much of the first half of the 20th Century was polio.


There was a polio epidemic in 1916 especially in the NY metropolitan area that closed schools and parks, and a more significant on in the late 40s and early 50s until the vaccine came and many summers saw park, pool and camp closures though not on a national/worldwide basis.

Another thing to think about.....we don't realize it but while we are far from "normal" we are a lot more like it than we were 6 months ago.....restaurants and many businesses are back open, we can get haircuts, etc. What's mostly still shut down are things like movie and live theatre, large concerts and sports events. And of course, what has come back is with social distancing, masking and other restrictions but we are not "locked down" in the way we were in April for sure. 6 months is a long time and we may see a lot more open in that time. This will end in slow "trickle" manner, not all of a sudden.

[ryanthegoldengod]

Originally Posted by whatsgoingon4

What's a little interesting to me, but you don't hear much about is that during the Spanish Flu, although it's generally talked about how places did shut down, it was not lockdown style for months on end. It was left up to local mayors mostly, and there were no blanket lockdowns. Some cities shut down things like theaters and the performing arts down for a few weeks, but in no way was everything in multiple states shut down for seven months and counting to flatten the curve. Even a month would have probably been unheard of.

There were also very few places with mask mandates, and they also weren't indefinite.

Not saying that was totally right thing to do, but I'm saying we've never done something like this in the history of our country, and most likely anywhere in the world before, let alone for this long.

Death toll: 670,000. And the US had a much lower overall population. We are going with Plan B.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Another thing to think about.....we don't realize it but while we are far from "normal" we are a lot more like it than we were 6 months ago.....restaurants and many businesses are back open, we can get haircuts, etc. What's mostly still shut down are things like movie and live theatre, large concerts and sports events. And of course, what has come back is with social distancing, masking and other restrictions but we are not "locked down" in the way we were in April for sure. 6 months is a long time and we may see a lot more open in that time. This will end in slow "trickle" manner, not all of a sudden.

While I think CT is getting into phase 3 VERY late, and the best time was probably during the summer in the warm weather, we are better off than places like NYC and Los Angeles, which are comparatively still very much neutered.

My worry is what just started in NYC going into winter.

Little upticks in cases cause a panic and localized shut downs.

Most people will not be OK with it, especially in places like NYC where we're talking about a tiny, tiny fraction of the infections they experienced in the Spring.

[Stylo]

Originally Posted by ryanthegoldengod

Death toll: 670,000. And the US had a much lower overall population. We are going with Plan B.

And a deadlier virus, especially to the young, without modern medical care. I hate the comparisons as it's a totally different situation.