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Old 06-28-2008, 11:50 AM
 
Location: Tolland County- Northeastern CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
All true if you live on the CT coast...the rest of the state this does not apply...they have winter and it can be nasty depending on the year.
The differences are more defined. The Western hills of CT has a more harsh climate then the eastern hills of the state- The demarcation line between humid continental and humid subtropical may now be the I 84 corridor or line. And that line is shifting north about a mile per year.
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Old 06-28-2008, 11:53 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skytrekker View Post
The differences are more defined. The Western hills of CT has a more harsh climate then the eastern hills- The demarcation line between humid continental and humid subtropical may now be the I 84 corridor or line.
Funny you mention 84 being the line because after the majority of snowstorms, a mile north of 84 had significantly more snow than a mile south (in the Southbury area at least).
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Old 06-28-2008, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Tolland County- Northeastern CT
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Yes, you are right Kid

that seems to be currently the climate difference in the state. I am at that line, a USDA zone 6/7. I live Just north of I 84 a mile. The 'zone' between the two climatic types is shifting north 1 mile a year.

Last edited by skytrekker; 06-28-2008 at 12:05 PM..
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Old 06-28-2008, 04:50 PM
 
Location: New England
8,155 posts, read 20,930,426 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skytrekker View Post
The differences are more defined. The Western hills of CT has a more harsh climate then the eastern hills of the state- The demarcation line between humid continental and humid subtropical may now be the I 84 corridor or line. And that line is shifting north about a mile per year.
Got any scientific data on that "line" moving a mile a year?

I'd like to see it if you do.
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Old 06-28-2008, 06:19 PM
 
Location: Tolland County- Northeastern CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JViello View Post
Got any scientific data on that "line" moving a mile a year?

I'd like to see it if you do.

Evidence ? I suggest you check out the changes in climatic growing zones from the Arbor foundation site at Hardiness Zone Changes at arborday.org

The changes from 1990-2006 are shown- I would assume with current information from climate scientists my extrapolation may prove realistic. The process is known as 'Zone Creep'. Washington DC has been called the 'New North Carolina' and we are the new Washington DC- at least climatically- compared to 30 years ago.

This may somewhat make my assertion at 1 mile a year theoretically possible- and even somewhat conservative.
Considering I am growing two Asiatic fan palms in my garden (Trachycarpus) that have survived through 2 winters with minimal protection as well as Giant Sequoia- a difference of a few degrees for absolute lows makes many plants now here able to survive through the winter here in my borderline now 'sub tropical climate'.

cheers and salutations

Last edited by skytrekker; 06-28-2008 at 07:00 PM..
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Old 06-28-2008, 09:34 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,320,515 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rlemega View Post
Who tells out of staters more about Hurricanes than Blizzards? I'm 26 and have lived in New England my whole life and the only Hurricane that I (barely) remember is Gloria when I was about 6. Even Tropical storms, I can 't remember more than a few., Bob...Mitch?
First of all –

Connecticut is not in the “New England†climate zone.

Next - part of the problem is that your ARE only 26. I can remember....


Tropical Storm Floyd in 1999….
Tropical Storm Bertha in 1996…
Hurricane Bob in 1991…..
Hurricane Gloria in 1985….
Tropical Storm David in 1979…
Hurricane Belle in 1976…..
Tropical storm Agnus in 1972
Tropical Storm Dora in 1971….

Every one of these storm did moderate to severe property damage…and in the case of Floyd (1999), Bob (1991), Gloria (1985), Belle (1976), and Agnus (1972),…….KILLED CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS.

Let me guess….you live in Northern Connecticut.

PS. By the way...Mitch hit Central America - not Connecticut.
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Old 06-28-2008, 11:03 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JViello View Post
Got any scientific data on that "line" moving a mile a year?

I'd like to see it if you do.
Let me try to put this into perspective. I just want to make two quick and short points.

I am not one of the people “completely” convinced on the CO2 induced global warming debate. However, years of study (academically and professionally) in climate research have put two things into sharp focus –

1) THE PLANT WARMING DEBATE IS OVER

There is NO QUESTION that climate zones worldwide have moved. If you (Jviello) are serious about researching this topic – google the name “James Hanson, climate”. I’m going to spear the political rhetoric of his situation - but he is (or was) a NOAA climate researcher without an agenda (except the “truth”)…..Who did the most exhaustive study ever attempted of global climate change. He has proven - without a doubt – that climate zones have moved over the last 100 years. His current estimate is 100-miles over the last 50 years (averaged across the globe). The 1990’s and 2000’s have the warmest years globally that have ever been measured.

I have not seen data about a mile a year – (sky). I only pray the source of that data is wrong, hyped, or someone told you something untrue. I also would like to see it. Having said that - let me say, the debate is….. are these temp increases and zone creep “natural changes” (that will change back at some point)….or man –made changes (increased CO 2) that have us marching toward hell climatically. That’s where it stands today. It’s warming. Why?

2) WEATHER AND CLIMATE IS HYPED

When you look over climate data everyday – especially when you look over climate data everyday….., you quickly realize that weather is so hyped, twisted, maligned…and so different than most people think it is. Because of a general lack of knowledge about geography/climate, along with the media/market driven goofy TV Weatherman (we have plenty here in CT), the Weather Channel, and people in the production department…..most people are forced to create their own sense of what weather/climate realty is. For some people they MUST believe it to survive (“I live here and it the best place in the world”). You have all read some of my posts… no matter how many times you tell, show, explain, or prove to someone from LA the ocean beaches have warmer water off NYC than off LA – they will not accept it…….try to tell someone Vegas that Seattle actually has a bone dry summer climate, show them with real numbers, and they will look in the face and say no!,……..tell someone who saw the movie “Fargo” - in reality winters are “dry” in Minnesota, Cleveland, OH and Spokane, WA get more snow in winter. Read the post of a 26 year old above – you can’t tell them all what happened in 1938…that thousands of homes were swept out to sea, bodies washed up on the beaches in Connecticut, they ran out of embalming fluid in Rhode Island, whole neighborhoods on eastern Long Island vanished in 3 hours. My point is when it comes to weather and climate…fact vs fiction are often very far apart.

If we are truly the first “social computer generation” than we owe it to ourselves, our children, and our global online community….. to always get the “facts” out there. I think it’s all we are going to be left with.

Cheers.
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Old 06-29-2008, 05:35 AM
 
Location: Tolland County- Northeastern CT
4,462 posts, read 7,971,037 times
Reputation: 1237
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Let me try to put this into perspective. I just want to make two quick and short points.

I am not one of the people “completely” convinced on the CO2 induced global warming debate. However, years of study (academically and professionally) in climate research have put two things into sharp focus –

1) THE PLANT WARMING DEBATE IS OVER

There is NO QUESTION that climate zones worldwide have moved. If you (Jviello) are serious about researching this topic – google the name “James Hanson, climate”. I’m going to spear the political rhetoric of his situation - but he is (or was) a NOAA climate researcher without an agenda (except the “truth”)…..Who did the most exhaustive study ever attempted of global climate change. He has proven - without a doubt – that climate zones have moved over the last 100 years. His current estimate is 100-miles over the last 50 years (averaged across the globe). The 1990’s and 2000’s have the warmest years globally that have ever been measured.

I have not seen data about a mile a year – (sky). I only pray the source of that data is wrong, hyped, or someone told you something untrue. I also would like to see it. Having said that - let me say, the debate is….. are these temp increases and zone creep “natural changes” (that will change back at some point)….or man –made changes (increased CO 2) that have us marching toward hell climatically. That’s where it stands today. It’s warming. Why?

2) WEATHER AND CLIMATE IS HYPED

When you look over climate data everyday – especially when you look over climate data everyday….., you quickly realize that weather is so hyped, twisted, maligned…and so different than most people think it is. Because of a general lack of knowledge about geography/climate, along with the media/market driven goofy TV Weatherman (we have plenty here in CT), the Weather Channel, and people in the production department…..most people are forced to create their own sense of what weather/climate realty is. For some people they MUST believe it to survive (“I live here and it the best place in the world”). You have all read some of my posts… no matter how many times you tell, show, explain, or prove to someone from LA the ocean beaches have warmer water off NYC than off LA – they will not accept it…….try to tell someone Vegas that Seattle actually has a bone dry summer climate, show them with real numbers, and they will look in the face and say no!,……..tell someone who saw the movie “Fargo” - in reality winters are “dry” in Minnesota, Cleveland, OH and Spokane, WA get more snow in winter. Read the post of a 26 year old above – you can’t tell them all what happened in 1938…that thousands of homes were swept out to sea, bodies washed up on the beaches in Connecticut, they ran out of embalming fluid in Rhode Island, whole neighborhoods on eastern Long Island vanished in 3 hours. My point is when it comes to weather and climate…fact vs fiction are often very far apart.

If we are truly the first “social computer generation” than we owe it to ourselves, our children, and our global online community….. to always get the “facts” out there. I think it’s all we are going to be left with.

Cheers.
I suggest you see the Union of Concerned Scientists website, which has much about the environment, including global warming. They have an excellent section called 'shifting climates- they have two scenarios that see a future will smaller increases in C02, and accelerated levels.

It gives a scenario by the year 2077 and after of what the tri- state region by that year will resemble with accelerated levels of C02 of this region having temperatures and a climate similar to Coastal South Carolin over a 65 year period, therefore my one mile a year increase north of zone 7 from coastal CT is very conservative indeed. If in fact this is what is happening, you have good reason to be scared- as do the rest of us.

A group from the Union of Concerned recently where asked to testify in front of Congress- I would assume their standards for empirical testing are valid, and they try and remain objective of politics. They disagree with you, on your assertions that C02 is not the primary cause of warming- as does the IPCC. The IPCC states that human induced warming has a 95% probability I believe.

As far as Mr. Hansen- who claims he was 'muzzled' by the Bush administration regarding climate change. I do not know if his scientific integrity has been compromised, that remains to be seen, however he feels at this point we have reached the point of no return regarding C02 emissions (actually he has said the year 2012).

Also many scientists say that the Arctic ocean could be ice free this summer, the first time in recorded history.

See Climate Choices in the Northeast
Dramatically Changing Climates: New York Tri-State Region

The second link makes my extrapolation of 1 mile year not only possible, but highly probable, and sadly to say is perhaps represents too little of a drift north of the Z7 line. My estimate of just 1 mile per year north would see a zone 7 climate extend across the Hartford area by the year 2038- starting with the current Z7 at New Haven Harbor, shifting 1 mile year year-30 miles to the north the southern suburbs of Hartford, an easy scenario if the Union of Concerned Scientists theories are realized. By the year 2077, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists central CT could shift from a zone 6/7 to zone 8/9, very easily. Considering that from here in Vernon we have not had a below zero reading for several winters, I consider myself to be a borderline zone 6/7 already. It seems 1.5 miles per year is more probable if their scenario is correct.

If these prospects do occur, you are right- we have much to be worried about by the year 2100- as Dr. Hansen has said.
If you are indeed a research scientist knowledgeable about this subject, you tend to have a very conservative view (not politically) on the latest information regarding climate change, which of course is totally acceptable, unfortunately many climate scientists have also been very conservative- it was just a few years ago they did not see an arctic ocean free of ice till 2040- now many are waiting to see if it happens this year. Thus far they have vastly underestimated the amount of warming taking place, especially at the higher latitudes.


Even with the lowest increase in average yearly temperture of 2-3 degrees by the year 2050-2075- by the most conservative scientific estimates my 1 mile creep north is highly probable.

Additionally the Arbor Foundation site is excellent information. The updated zones where initially made for the USDA- currently the USDA is updating their own maps for the USA Alaska and HI - I have no idea when their new Zone information will be released- it will likely mirror the Arbor changes.

My two windmill palms are thriving- the question is this- could these palms have survived in my location 40 years ago? The evidence can be obtained by finding out the number of days where the temperture drops and stays at a low level killing these palms. Remember they are rated from a zone 7 and up, damage from cold does occur with these plants in the winter here- they are theoretically not hardy in my location.

I grow in the ground Trachycarpus fortunei & Trachycarpus Wagnerianus (stiff leafed variety)
Trachycarpus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
hardiestpalms.com :: Trachycarpus fortunei (http://www.hardiestpalms.com/Tfortunei/index.html - broken link)
PACSOA - Trachycarpus

Last edited by skytrekker; 06-29-2008 at 06:53 AM..
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Old 06-29-2008, 06:56 AM
 
Location: Tolland County- Northeastern CT
4,462 posts, read 7,971,037 times
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The IPCC said there is a 90% chance that the warming is 'human induced' the likely culprit C02.

As for plants not being an important factor in climate change- if current scenarios projected by many scientists- including those at the state of CT DEP- future autumns in CT will be less colorful as sugar maples die off and move further north. The reaction of flora and fauna to climate change is very important. The survival of my 'little palm tree' is in fact very important- since its tolerance to extreme cold or the lack of it, will predicate its ability to survive or die, and make the likelihood of a warming climate in CT more scientifically provable.
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Old 06-29-2008, 01:32 PM
 
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