[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Lowerdeck

Still saying a potential for a nor'easter this weekend (Saturday), if it gets close enough to the coast.

Yeap... whats amazing is all the factors that need to come into play for a snowstorm.

Models were showing mixed precip beginning of last week because the cold air wasn’t filtering down until late Saturday. NOW… the High pressure is dropping down on Thursday so cold air will be in place. Any precip will be snow.

But because the High pressure dropped down and is strong, it will suppress the storm south a little bit. Originally the Low pressure was going west and north of us. Now because of the High pressure in place earlier, the storm will be little south of us.

That’s means if the temps stay in the 20’s and the snowfall is 15:1 or 20:1 ratio, we’re getting 10-15”. BUT…… how deep will the High pressure dip? Storm can be too much south and we get little precip.


All models are in agreement that it will be a storm on the east coast this weekend. How close the Low is to the coast will determin how much we get.

[7 Wishes]

AccuWeather.com - Weather News Headlines - Weather News (http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=2&partner=united - broken link)

Hopefully when they change the headlines, this link will still point to the one about the possible snowstorm, but it's good for now.

[wstvs]

i heard 2-3 feet of snow this weekend

[wavehunter007]

I know snowfall across the region has been minimal and with February next week snow fans are getting edgy (lol). But…just to keep AccuWeathers hype in check….the chances of the low this weekend delivering snow to the Tri-State area this weekend are slim. There is a chance…but a very tiny one.

A bitterly cold air mass during the Friday to Sunday time frame will briefly drop temperatures across the region…lows will fall to around 15 F across the urban areas (Hartford, New Haven, NYC…etc) and the coast, with single numbers inland and north. As the High builds in Friday expect cold and very dry air to dominate for much of the weekend. Although there is still a bit of spread in the models…most solutions have trended southward with the weekend storm. In fact if the current trend holds…the low will pass off the Virginal Capes with some rain south/east and snow on the northern/western edges around the mid-Atlantic from Virginia to south Jersey. For the most part, the system will completely pass to the south of the Tri-State area with zero precipitation. Temps should moderate again early next week (the first week of February) as a more zonal flow begins. Early next week looks seasonally cold (35 to 40 F) and dry across Connecticut.


Here is the offical WXD from the NWS in NYC:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE LONG
TERM...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST PART OF IT. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE
TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH THE COASTAL STORM FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DGEX...WHICH STILL ADVERTISES
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...ONLY A FEW OF THE GEFS MEMBERS
INDICATE ANY SNOW...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD. IF CURRENT
TRENDS HOLD...THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL MISS THE REGION
ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTH...AND IT WILL JUST BE COLD AND DRY...NOT
WILLING TO GO THAT FAR RIGHT NOW.

FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW IN OVER ALL BUT FAR NW
ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL ZONES
SATURDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT NO SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT AM GUARDING AGAINST FUTURE
SHIFTS TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION BY FUTURE MODELS RUNS (AS HAS
HAPPEN ALL WEEK SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM).

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT SNOWS OR NOT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN
TEMPERATURES WHICH REFLECTS THIS WELL.

FOR NOW AM PLAYING SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING AS DRY WITH THE
REGION DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO FAR TO THE NORTH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO POTENTIAL BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION IS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD PASS TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.

[7 Wishes]

Ah, I thought I was one of the only people who isn't a meteorologist who actually reads those WXDs with all their talk about the models and their uncertainties At my last job I once told a co-worker about these and she became fascinated with it too.

The typical thing that happens when you have a very strong cold high presssure in the Northeast is that it suppresses/pushes storms to the south. But I think if this is big enough we may still get something, it just may not be a "blizzard". But we'll see, if I remember right there was a similar scenario with the December storm until almost the end (and the model was basically correct in that the bigger totals were in the South and lower Mid-Atlantic like from Philly to Virginia).

[Cambium]

Looks like the models are taking this south of here. Yes I said "south" not north. Virginias will get more snow then us. We not not even get anything out of this now. Wow.

The track is staying to far south! What a waste of cold air.

Is it possible this thing jogs north last 3 days??

[Yankeerose00]

Noooooo! This is like a cruel joke! I lived in VA for 4.5 years. Only ONCE did we get decent snow that stuck on the ground for a week. That was December of 05. The next biggest storm after that was last February the day after we moved! Now I'm hearing they are getting more snow and we aren't? They got more snow than us just this past Christmas. I get to hear my cousin gloating about it.
This is not normal right? Normally we get more snow than this don't we?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Yankeerose00

Noooooo! This is like a cruel joke! I lived in VA for 4.5 years. Only ONCE did we get decent snow that stuck on the ground for a week. That was December of 05. The next biggest storm after that was last February the day after we moved! Now I'm hearing they are getting more snow and we aren't? They got more snow than us just this past Christmas. I get to hear my cousin gloating about it.
This is not normal right? Normally we get more snow than this don't we?

LOL Yes absolutley we do. Most of the time even us here get pissed that the rain/snow line is too close to us. Now we're getting nothing and the northern edge of the snow is far south of us.

It has something to do the with the jet stream, pattern and El Nino. I think El Nino is getting stronger.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Yankeerose00

Noooooo! This is like a cruel joke! I lived in VA for 4.5 years. Only ONCE did we get decent snow that stuck on the ground for a week. That was December of 05. The next biggest storm after that was last February the day after we moved! Now I'm hearing they are getting more snow and we aren't? They got more snow than us just this past Christmas. I get to hear my cousin gloating about it.
This is not normal right? Normally we get more snow than this don't we?

Well, it depends on where in Connecticut you live. The coastal and lowland areas of the Tri-State area (Far southern/coastal Connecticut, Long Island, eastern/coastal New Jersey) really doesn’t get that much more snow than inland Virginia. In Connecticut, you don’t really get into the higher seasonal snow totals until you get into the northern half of the state. Windsor Locks, CT a few miles from the Massachusetts line, gets almost twice as much a places in far southern Connecticut, like Stamford, Bridgeport, New Haven, New London (NYC/Long Island).

Here are some averages across Virginia (I/m not sure where you lived) and Connecticut/Tri-State area:

NWS –Dulles/Washington DC…20.8 inches.
NWS – Roanoke, VA…20.3 inches.
NWS- Lynchburg, VA…15.6 inches.
NWS - Richmond, VA…12.1 inches.

As compared to a few stations in the Tri-State area…

NWS – Windsor Locks, CT…44.8 inches
NWS – NYC (Central Park)…22.5 inches.
NWS – Bridgeport, CT…24.8 inches.
NWS – Islip, Long Island…22.1 inches.
NWS – Atlantic City, NJ …13.5 inches.

Generally the big cities on the Connecticut coast (Stamford, Bridgeport, New Haven) get about half as much snow as the area from Hartford north up to the state line of MA. If you want snow in Connecticut…go as far northwest as you can (Litchfield, Torrington…etc)….if you hate snow…go as far southeast as you can (Saybrook/Lymes, New London, Groton). Highway wise...the I-84 gets the most snow...I-95 gets the least snow.

[htfdcolt]

I believe Hartford made the Weather Channel's list of "Top 10 Snowiest Metro Areas" some years back (at #10)...which was surprising. But we will likely fall short of our seasonal average at this rate...agreed, what a waste of cold air!