[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I hope it doesn't rain next week along the coast...I'm not ready for rain or above 35 temps yet!

You guys up in the northern part of the state might not have had temps above 35 F since in the last few weeks...but we had them just two days ago in southern and coastal Connecticut. NWS Bridgeport hit 40 F, New Haven hit 42 F, New London hit 43 F…and my min/max hit 41 F.

Here is NWS NYC current thinking on the snow for tomorrow hot off the press at 3:30: It really looks like just a quick 3 to 5 inches across much of the area:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN THIS EVENING WITH SNOW
GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z. MODEL GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 0.30 AND 0.50 INCHES. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 20/12Z NAM...WHICH IS GIVING THE CWA AN AVERAGE OF 0.60 INCHES. THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND WILL DISCOUNT AT THIS TIME. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...EXPECT A DIFFICULT FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE DURING RUSH HOUR. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDING BETWEEN 13Z AND 18Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE A TOTAL AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

AS THE SNOW ENDS...DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILLS IN FROM THE WEST WITH
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.

So I think my forecast of 2 to 4 inches for most of Connecticut might be on the low side but it’s in the ballpark. Also, it looks NWS is really unsure there will even be a storm on the 24th/25th.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO UPSTREAM RIDGE...AND EVENTUAL TROUGHING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THESE DIFFERENCES...LARGE SPREAD ON SFC LOW EVOLUTION...AND EVENTUAL TRACK BY MID WEEK.

INITIAL ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF...AND MOVES NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...A BLEND BETWEEN ECMWF AND OTHER GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS IS IN ORDER...AS ECMWF REMAINS THE DEEPEST AND CLOSEST TO THE COAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS/GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS TRACK A WEAKER LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE BECAUSE OF REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.

-- End Changed Discussion --


Arctic air moderating early next week? Maybe its that solar angle?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

INITIAL ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF...AND MOVES NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME...A BLEND BETWEEN ECMWF AND OTHER GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS IS IN ORDER...AS ECMWF REMAINS THE DEEPEST AND CLOSEST TO THE COAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS/GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS TRACK A WEAKER LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE BECAUSE OF REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.

-- End Changed Discussion --

Again...Misleading people with the bolded part..... Moderates from 10 degrees to 20...Still below normal...its getting colder not warmer above average.

hey...speaking of which... Interesting fact...Did you hear that the averages are set to change in June... They will be changing the numbers based on studies since the 80s I believe... What this will do is throw out what has happened many years before then... So the averages will be warmer...

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Again...Misleading people with the bolded part..... Moderates from 10 degrees to 20...Still below normal...its getting colder not warmer above average.

hey...speaking of which... Interesting fact...Did you hear that the averages are set to change in June... They will be changing the numbers based on studies since the 80s I believe... What this will do is throw out what has happened many years before then... So the averages will be warmer...

That is actually quite interesting. Are they doing that Nationally?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

That is actually quite interesting. Are they doing that Nationally?

Yeap...and a little humor from this....pretty soon I'll be able to say "see, its 50 degrees in January and we're still below normal!" lol It wont go up that much.....yet.....but it is interesting isnt it? I personally dont think they should throw away the 70s temps... Thats crazy...Our records are so short lived as it is...

'Normal' weather set to change in US this year - 19 Jan 2011 - News from BusinessGreen

'Normal' weather set to change in US this year

The definition of 'normal weather' across the US is about to change, according to new figures from the agency that publishes climate data that also show it is getting steadily hotter.

Each decade, the National Climate Data Centre, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, updates a set of weather data known as the 'normals'. This data averages temperature and precipitation over a thirty-year period to help businesses predict industry and other commercial sectors.




This year, the NCDC will drop the 1970s from its data set, and will replace it with data from the last decade. According to staff responsible for the project, losing the 1970s data will increase the average temperature.
For example, according to a report published this month in Scientific American average temperatures in the upper-midwest will increase by 1-2.5 degrees farenheit (0.6-1.4 degrees celsius).

In contrast, the southern central part of the country will cool by around half a degree, while the US can also expect to see a slight drying of the west, which could have worrying results given the drought that the south-west has experienced over the past few years.

More information will emerge when the full figures are published later this year.

"The standard normals will be updated in mid-June, and the additional normals products, such as freeze dates, will be more towards end of the year," said a spokesperson formerly connected with the normals project yesterday.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yeap...and a little humor from this....pretty soon I'll be able to say "see, its 50 degrees in January and we're still below normal!" lol It wont go up that much.....yet.....but it is interesting isnt it? I personally dont think they should throw away the 70s temps... Thats crazy...Our records are so short lived as it is...

'Normal' weather set to change in US this year - 19 Jan 2011 - News from BusinessGreen

'Normal' weather set to change in US this year

The definition of 'normal weather' across the US is about to change, according to new figures from the agency that publishes climate data that also show it is getting steadily hotter.

Each decade, the National Climate Data Centre, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, updates a set of weather data known as the 'normals'. This data averages temperature and precipitation over a thirty-year period to help businesses predict industry and other commercial sectors.




This year, the NCDC will drop the 1970s from its data set, and will replace it with data from the last decade. According to staff responsible for the project, losing the 1970s data will increase the average temperature.
For example, according to a report published this month in Scientific American average temperatures in the upper-midwest will increase by 1-2.5 degrees farenheit (0.6-1.4 degrees celsius).

In contrast, the southern central part of the country will cool by around half a degree, while the US can also expect to see a slight drying of the west, which could have worrying results given the drought that the south-west has experienced over the past few years.

More information will emerge when the full figures are published later this year.

"The standard normals will be updated in mid-June, and the additional normals products, such as freeze dates, will be more towards end of the year," said a spokesperson formerly connected with the normals project yesterday.

Wow..thanks, I didnt know this.

[htfdcolt]

Well...I see that NWS Taunton just upgraded to a winter storm warning for Hartford Cty. 4-8" ! What changed in the forecast?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by rajmelk

Well...I see that NWS Taunton just upgraded to a winter storm warning for Hartford Cty. 4-8" ! What changed in the forecast?

lol...Gee that sounds like double...Track and snow ratios.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Again...Misleading people with the bolded part..... Moderates from 10 degrees to 20...Still below normal...its getting colder not warmer above average.

hey...speaking of which... Interesting fact...Did you hear that the averages are set to change in June... They will be changing the numbers based on studies since the 80s I believe... What this will do is throw out what has happened many years before then... So the averages will be warmer...

Those "normal temperatures" by you see from the National Weather Service is 30 year averages they (like the Census ending in a year ending in "0") change every 10 years. Our current normals are simply an average of all the temperatures from 1971-2000. So for example January's "normal temperatures" are based on averaging all the January temperature data from 1971 thru 2000 (the "daily averages", for example, the average Central Park hi and lo for say Jan 22 being 37 and 25, are based on a "smoothing out" of the monthly data so that it trends down on a daily basis until the third week of January, then goes upward in a regular fashion until late July.....otherwise anomolies could show weird things like an average Jan 20 high of 39, an average Jan 21 high of 36, an average Jan 22 high of 37, etc.). They've been doing this a long time, the first set of "30 year normals" was done for the 1921-50 period, it's nothing new like you're making it.

So now that 2010 has passed, they change the averages to be based on data from 1981-2010. Because of the speed of modern computers, they may have this data as fast as June (they double-check it like crazy), though I've heard November. It used to take a lot longer, the 1971-2000 numbers didn't come out until early 2002, and the 1951-1980 numbers to go to "ancient" technology, didn't come out until mid-1983!

It's believed that because the 1970s were a "cold" decade and the 2000s a "warm" one, that we'll see significant warming in the averages. However, an interesting thing about them in the NY metropolitan area is the average highs have actually gone DOWN through the decades while the lows have gone UP. If you find an old World Almanac or something with some of the old averages, you'll see that going way back to the 1931-1960 numbers, Central Park had an average January high a tiny bit over 40 (it dropped to about 37 in the 1961-90 averages and went back up to about 38 in the 1971-2000 averages). July's average high in that period has gone down from 85 to 84, while the low has gone up from 67 to almost 69.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Again...Misleading people with the bolded part..... Moderates from 10 degrees to 20...Still below normal...its getting colder not warmer above average.

Not real sure where your seeing 20 F highs after Monday in the Tri-State area; Here is the zone forecast for New Haven from this weekend to the middle of next week at 10:00 PM tonight. It shows the cold snap on Sat/Sun/Mon with highs in the low 20’s…then a moderation into the mid 30’s by this coming Wednesday. Climo for this time of year is just about in the mid 30’s :

NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.32°N 72.94°W

Friday: Snow, mainly before 10am. High near 34. Breezy, with a north wind 7 to 10 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 22.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34.


So the daily highs will be well above 20 F after Monday or so.


If the coastal low on Wed stays on the coastal plain of the East Coast (like the some of the models show)...I would not be suprised to see 50 F next Thur and heavy rain.

[Cambium]

-31 degrees in International Falls, MN right now going down to -41 tonight...Now thats what I call arctic air!