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Old 01-24-2011, 08:13 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,102,508 times
Reputation: 2118

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankeerose00 View Post
Can some of you weather gurus help me out?
My parents have their house on the market in Tennessee and have been all set to move to CT to be near me. It's been a long time since we've lived in the same state and now that they are seniors, I wanted them close by. They were going to be living with me.

Well, apparently they saw this big segment on the news that talked about how they've been wrong for all these years and not only is there no global warming but rather winters are going to get colder and colder. What's a below average winter now, is going to be more of a normal winter in the future.


I would caution taking seriously TV shows about climate and weather that attempt to make bold statements about changing weather /climate. It can be risky to take short term extremes in weather (of any kind) and extrapolate them out to have any real meaning in long term climate. Additionally, one must always be cautious of how climate data is presented - and from what perspective. One of the saddest things to me today is how biased and market driven “weather forecasting” has become.

While we are currently experiencing a colder/snowier than normal across the Tri-State area (and the USA as a whole)…it is a total exaggeration scientifically that there is any proof of winters becoming colder than normal anywhere on earth. In fact, if anything it is just the opposite - there seems to be warmer than normal days world wide than in days past. I'm not a believer in yet in global warming (I pray for climate stability)…however, recently our weather has been anything but cool across the Tri-State area and the USA in general (lol). 2010 was the warmest year world- wide since temp records were kept…a far cry from things cooling down if you listen to the scientists: :

State of the Climate | Global Analysis | Annual 2010

Locally, along the East Coast/Tri-State area we have been totally the opposite of anything remotely cold latley: Summer in 2010...in the Tri-State/ middle Atlantic (NYC/LI/New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland) was one of the hottest summers on record since 1860. Hartford, CT had its all time hottest summer in 80 years. In fact, NYC had it hottest summer of “all time” in 2010. According to the National Weather Service…these are some of the records from summer 2010 in the NYC area:

warmest summer of all time in NYC…(Mean temp 77.8 F/25 C).

warmest spring of all time in NYC…(March, April, May 2010 – mean temp 57.1 F).

warmest April of all time in NYC (April 2010 – mean temp 57.9 F)

10th warmest May of all time in NYC (May 2010 – mean temp 65.3 F).

4th warmest June of all time in NYC (June 2010 – mean temp 74.7 F).

2nd warmest July of all time in NYC (July 2010 - mean temp 81.2 F).

10th warmest September of all time in NYC (Sept 2010 – mean temp 71.1 F).

2nd hottest month ever in NYC (July 2010).

2nd highest number of 90 F/32 C days of all time in NYC – Summer 2010 with 37 days at or above 90 F.

You can check all the records at the National Weather Service site here:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/clima...ldseasons.html



Just as last summer was hotter than normal…this winter might be (at least so far) colder than normal. It’s common for there to be wide swings in seasonal temps in the middle latitudes. Its nothing more than that.


One other note: For those looking for a seasonal snow cover map (ave number of days with snow cover across the Tri-State area I have one but it is in a text book - I will try to copy). From what I can remember Long Island/far southern Connecticut averages 30 days with snow cover...southern interior central/eastern CT averages 40 days with snow cover...and the highlands in NW CT and far northern CT average 50 to 60 days with snow cover. New London (26 days) has the least...Canaan has the most (66 days).

.
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Old 01-24-2011, 08:19 AM
 
Location: Connecticut
28,994 posts, read 45,568,614 times
Reputation: 8999
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankeerose00 View Post
Can some of you weather gurus help me out?
My parents have their house on the market in Tennessee and have been all set to move to CT to be near me. It's been a long time since we've lived in the same state and now that they are seniors, I wanted them close by. They were going to be living with me.

Well, apparently they saw this big segment on the news that talked about how they've been wrong for all these years and not only is there no global warming but rather winters are going to get colder and colder. What's a below average winter now, is going to be more of a normal winter in the future.

So now they do not want to move here. I'm trying to assure them this is a colder winter than we've had in the past. This is our 3rd winter here, and first two were a breeze for me. I actually loved it. This winter? Even I'm counting the days until spring. It has been a hard winter.

But would you say that this is a normal winter? And without getting into politics is there any evidence that winters are going to get colder and colder?

Not just for my parents but I compared our electric and oil bill this year to last and it's a good 30-40% higher. I'm wondering if we need to start planning on a higher budget for winter.

Thanks in advance.
No one knows for sure about global warming, nor do they really know about global freezing. We have only been keeping temperature records for the past 100 years which is nothing in the big scheme of things. This has been a record breaking winter so far. The snow storm a few weeks ago broke the snow fall record at Bradley and the fact that we have not had a January thaw yet is unusual. I do not know what you could tell your parents though to ease their concerns. No one has the answers. Jay
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Old 01-24-2011, 08:47 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
9,753 posts, read 15,789,961 times
Reputation: 3918
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
I would caution taking seriously TV shows about climate and weather that attempt to make bold statements about changing weather /climate. It can be risky to take short term extremes in weather (of any kind) and extrapolate them out to have any real meaning in long term climate. Additionally, one must always be cautious of how climate data is presented - and from what perspective. One of the saddest things to me today is how biased and market driven “weather forecasting” has become.

While we are currently experiencing a colder/snowier than normal across the Tri-State area (and the USA as a whole)…it is a total exaggeration scientifically that there is any proof of winters becoming colder than normal anywhere on earth. In fact, if anything it is just the opposite - there seems to be warmer than normal days world wide than in days past. I'm not a believer in yet in global warming (I pray for climate stability)…however, recently our weather has been anything but cool across the Tri-State area and the USA in general (lol). 2010 was the warmest year world- wide since temp records were kept…a far cry from things cooling down if you listen to the scientists: :

State of the Climate | Global Analysis | Annual 2010

Locally, along the East Coast/Tri-State area we have been totally the opposite of anything remotely cold latley: Summer in 2010...in the Tri-State/ middle Atlantic (NYC/LI/New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland) was one of the hottest summers on record since 1860. Hartford, CT had its all time hottest summer in 80 years. In fact, NYC had it hottest summer of “all time” in 2010. According to the National Weather Service…these are some of the records from summer 2010 in the NYC area:

warmest summer of all time in NYC…(Mean temp 77.8 F/25 C).

warmest spring of all time in NYC…(March, April, May 2010 – mean temp 57.1 F).

warmest April of all time in NYC (April 2010 – mean temp 57.9 F)

10th warmest May of all time in NYC (May 2010 – mean temp 65.3 F).

4th warmest June of all time in NYC (June 2010 – mean temp 74.7 F).

2nd warmest July of all time in NYC (July 2010 - mean temp 81.2 F).

10th warmest September of all time in NYC (Sept 2010 – mean temp 71.1 F).

2nd hottest month ever in NYC (July 2010).

2nd highest number of 90 F/32 C days of all time in NYC – Summer 2010 with 37 days at or above 90 F.

You can check all the records at the National Weather Service site here:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/clima...ldseasons.html


Just as last summer was hotter than normal…this winter might be (at least so far) colder than normal. It’s common for there to be wide swings in seasonal temps in the middle latitudes. Its nothing more than that.


One other note: For those looking for a seasonal snow cover map (ave number of days with snow cover across the Tri-State area I have one but it is in a text book - I will try to copy). From what I can remember Long Island/far southern Connecticut averages 30 days with snow cover...southern interior central/eastern CT averages 40 days with snow cover...and the highlands in NW CT and far northern CT average 50 to 60 days with snow cover. New London (26 days) has the least...Canaan has the most (66 days).

.
I am pretty sure you have it right on the snow cover numbers.

Interestingly (and this is to strengthen to point about how little 100 years is in the scheme of things), the climate section of the "Albany, NY" NWS site (whose region covers Litchfield County by the way) seems in the part about warmest vs. coldest Januaries, snowiest Februaries, etc. to somehow go back to the 1700s (how I don't know when the Signal Corps only started in the 1860s) and notes quite a few warm and less snowy months/winters 200 years ago.

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Albany, New York is the main site, you can go from there.


By the way, since you are in Miami some of the time, you probably know that Dec/Jan is shattering many of the records for coldest months, etc. down there.
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Old 01-24-2011, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Central Virginia
834 posts, read 2,075,371 times
Reputation: 646
Thanks for all of that info!

They live in TN now but spend many years in Florida and when you are that far south, you would not believe how often the topic of weather and the cold north comes up. It's terrifying for a senior to think of ice and snow. My mom must have said 100 times, "I could fall and break my hip!" They don't care about summers being warmer but they freak out over the idea of colder winters.
Jay I think you're right. I don't think anything is going to help ease their fears. It just would be nice to have them close by for several reasons, mainly being, I'm tired of traveling to see them during the holidays!

Wavehunter, that is all fascinating info! I learned a lot just from that post. I hadn't really thought of the fact that the earth is so old but records have only been kept for 100 years. So nobody really knows anything about the future.
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Old 01-24-2011, 09:28 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,102,508 times
Reputation: 2118
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
][/b]


By the way, since you are in Miami some of the time, you probably know that Dec/Jan is shattering many of the records for coldest months, etc. down there.
As you know media hype is my real enemy..and I seek to expose them whenever possible:

So there again, there is some hype to what we all think is going on in one particular location (in this case Miami). Yes, December was a record cold month in Miami (three nights fell below 40 F…10 days failed to reach over 70 F…the month was 8.4 F below normal...etc). However, since late December, the media has been playing over and over the clips from the few cold mornings in December - as if to imply that there has been continued cold in Miami in January. Of course, this is totally untrue: Since January 1st…only 4 nights have fallen below 50 F (for only a few hours)…and 15 of the last 22 days cracked 75 F. For the month NWS Miami is just about plum normal (0.1 F below). When I was there the daily highs were close to 80 f every day. So it’s hardly been cold in Miami in January…

...except of course if you listen to the media.
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Old 01-24-2011, 09:49 AM
 
3,169 posts, read 8,374,890 times
Reputation: 2390
So any guesses on how much/what type of precipitation from this upcoming storm on Wednesday? I cleared off my roof this weekend in anticipation of more snow (or a sloppy, heavy mess). Of course, this means the storm will probably now miss us because I am prepared.
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Old 01-24-2011, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Texas
2,394 posts, read 3,611,864 times
Reputation: 1409
Quote:
Originally Posted by mels View Post
I cleared off my roof this weekend in anticipation of more snow (or a sloppy, heavy mess)
I did the same. If more snow comes, we'll be better off because of doing that.

I don't think the world works this way, but if clearing my roof means no more snow, I'll take that as a win.
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Old 01-24-2011, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Montreal -> CT -> MA -> Montreal -> Ottawa
17,336 posts, read 28,708,615 times
Reputation: 28730
Quote:
Originally Posted by mels View Post
So any guesses on how much/what type of precipitation from this upcoming storm on Wednesday? I cleared off my roof this weekend in anticipation of more snow (or a sloppy, heavy mess). Of course, this means the storm will probably now miss us because I am prepared.
And for that... I thank you!

To pay you back, any time that you'd like some rain, just let me know and I'll go wash my car for you.
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Old 01-24-2011, 10:43 AM
 
Location: Central Virginia
834 posts, read 2,075,371 times
Reputation: 646
Quote:
This is prevented in true snow country by metal roofs or a metal strip covering the lower 3 feet or so of the roof. It can also be prevented by electrically heated wires on the bottom of the roof and lining the gutters and downspouts, so that the water can get to the ground.
This quote is from the other blizzard thread.
Does anyone have these roof wires that heat electrically? How much are they to get installed? Do you flip a switch and turn them on when it snows or do they stay on all year? I've never heard of them before but they sound pretty convenient.
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Old 01-24-2011, 12:06 PM
 
Location: In a house
5,230 posts, read 7,736,333 times
Reputation: 2569
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankeerose00 View Post
This quote is from the other blizzard thread.
Does anyone have these roof wires that heat electrically? How much are they to get installed? Do you flip a switch and turn them on when it snows or do they stay on all year? I've never heard of them before but they sound pretty convenient.

Its just a wire you clip to the shingles along the eves and in the gutter. When plugged in or turned on it gets warm and can prevent the dam from hapening.
If your roof is only one layer thick & done within the last 20 years or so you shouldn't have much of a problem. Ice dam protection in the form of a special underlayment often called Ice shield or Ice & snow shield if used right wont keep the dam from happening but will keep the water outside.

Whats going on is the majority of the roof gets warm both from the sun & lost heat from inside. As that snow melts the water rolls down the roof until it gets to the exterior wall or slightly beyond it where theres no more heat underneath and refreezes and starts to build up. If theres still snow there it'll suck up the meltwater & refreeze creating the ice dam even faster. Since the ice dam is frozen directly to the roof water will accumulate behind it instead of going under it. Once water is sitting still on a shingle roof you have big problems, shingles arent waterproof, they just shed water. The Weather watch, ice & snow barrier or whatever they call the brand you use is basically a sheet of modified bitumen, thats a fancy word for tar. Its got a release paper on one side & you stick it to the sheathing under the shingles going back at least 2 feet beyond the interior heated space. Once its stuck good its not coming off and because its tar it'll seal around all the nail holes as long as the nails are still there.
Installed right ice dams can still damage your home & rip gutters off, but water wont get inside.

I cleared a dam for some people in Westport last week. They had weather watch under the shingles but the dam was so high it started coming in a skylight that was 3' up the roof. There was way over a foot of water behind the ice. They'da been swiming if not for the ice dam protection.
Its IMO the best solution here in CT. You can put as mentioned, a metal roof for the last 3 or 4 feet so the ice wont stay on the roof but then keeping gutters on the home becomes hard.
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