[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Grasshopper you disappoint me. You are so busy trying to spin the winter theme…you are missing the obvious signs. Here is a course correction:

We have a fundamentally different weather pattern taking shape as we head through February…and the last month of meteorological winter:

1) The NAO has turned positive (after being strongly negative since December). So durable and extreme cold will be is over after this weekend for the foreseeable future east of the Rockies. This is more of a typical La Nina pattern.

2) The southern ridge is building. Even the models are showing a large ridge is building in the coming weeks over the subtropical Gulf and South Atlantic states. If this trend continues, not only with there be few cold shots (again after the end of this week) in the Gulf/South Atlantic…but the chances of warm air advection will be building for areas further up the East Coast. Remember, even normal temps (and much of February looks like it will be above normal to our south) are quite warm in February in the Gulf and South Atlantic states…the 60’s might be found as close as southern North Carolina.

3) Storm Track: The collapses of the block over Quebec (positive NAO) and a building southern ridge…often send the storm track toward the Great Lakes. So the storm tack should start to migrate toward the Great Lakes and away from storms flying off the eastern coast of the mainland. This will allow many more chances for WAA as lows to the west of the East Coast will keep us in a more or less southern flow. If this pattern moves forward as expected…we should see the snow pack quickly melt down in the coming weeks. Temps in the 40’s as early as this coming Monday, as well as the building solar angle will start to quickly knock back the snow cover. I would not be surprised if most of the snow cover across the Tri-State area is gone by mid February.

After the final cool shot late this week…we should see temps building up and down the East Coast. Locally many areas in the Tri-State area will be in the lower 40’s by this coming Monday. Combined with the building solar angle, I think the snow covers days are numbered:

This coming Saturday:




This coming Monday:







tick, tick, tick, tick....

You cant win this time around wave..your warm weather got hammered this year....

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

And if we all listened to you nobody would have never thought we get 60 inches in 4 weeks. More snow is coming, we need to face reality. This pattern could last through March. Forget your early season tulips coming up.
Average is 28. We doubled it half way through winter.

I think it falls somewhere inbetween. I don't think this is the last of the snow, but perhaps we are going to see a "break".

In 2006, the whopper (and all-time record) 26.9" snow in Central Park in February was the ONLY measurable snow that entire month (not sure if that was true in Hartford, the one other major area that got 20+" from that storm since they are snowier in general than NYC).

Last year, even though December and February were snowy, January and March barely had any snow at all (in fact Central Park only had a trace in March).

While there are years like 1995-96 where EVERY month from December to March had 10+" (and even November and April had notable measurable snow), it's not always the case.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

And if we all listened to you nobody would have never thought we get 60 inches in 4 weeks. More snow is coming, we need to face reality. This pattern could last through March. Forget your early season tulips coming up.
Average is 28. We doubled it half way through winter.

Grasshopper…grasshopper, you are now just wishcasting my child.

As to the storm today/Wed…they have hyped down the forecast at AccuWeather (a wise move) for the Tri-State area. Now calling for only 2 to 4 inches across most of Connecticut…and 4 to 8 across in the far north. NYC/Long Island should see more like 1 to 3 inches of snow. A mix of sleet and rain to even just rain in far southern areas will keep this storm from having much of an effect. The pattern of lows cutting toward the Great Lakes is already showing, and this trend will only become stronger in the coming weeks I think.

By later this weekend the cold shot will quickly fade and temps will be near seasonable levels. Monday should see highs near 40 F in the Tri-State, perhaps a little warmer. As we move through the second and third week of February, these pattern changes will become even more apparent (and of course the seasonal changes like the solar angle will only help this). Joe seems to have a pretty good handle on some of the changes I see coming, the NAO positive, southeast ridge building…etc (paragraph 8) in more simple terms:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/lundberg/story/45077/there-is-a-ligh.asp (broken link)


for the winter fan...it is the long goodbye to winter 2010/2011....

...

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Grasshopper…grasshopper, you are now just wishcasting my child.

As to the storm today/Wed…they have hyped down the forecast at AccuWeather (a wise move) for the Tri-State area. Now calling for only 2 to 4 inches across most of Connecticut…and 4 to 8 across in the far north. NYC/Long Island should see more like 1 to 3 inches of snow. A mix of sleet and rain to even just rain in far southern areas will keep this storm from having much of an effect. The pattern of lows cutting toward the Great Lakes is already showing, and this trend will only become stronger in the coming weeks I think.


...

Except for the far north and perhaps the inland parts of CT, these snow amounts are what basically fell this morning and they are saying no more snow (again except for inland/far north). But you have the prediction for the rest of this storm pretty down pat as of now. OKX discussion is even noting a possible period of HEAVY RAIN from about noon-3pm tomorrow for LI, NYC, and coastal CT. That should be interesting (melt some of the snow, but bring on flooding and also perhaps make for an not-so-nice Thursday morning freezeup).

I see (at least in coastal areas) they are doing a lot of hedging toward a rain/snow mix for both the Saturday and Tuesday storms now.....and for Tuesday looks like they're talking about 40 for the CT coast and 45 for NYC! Maybe the winds of change are coming (though I wonder if this still means snow for Hartford......sorry DandJ )

I'm not sure it's a true "goodbye" yet though, but it may at least be an end to a major snow/ice storm per week.

[Mixum]

sounds like wishful thinking on your part waveyhunter

i agree with cambium.

[Tin Knocker]

Originally Posted by ctwhitechin

That's my plan, I bought a big bag of ice melt last night and plan to throw some up there thursday after this mess stops. I must have done something to relieve the water backup when I pulled that ice out of the gutter, leak has stopped and water was dripping nicely out of corner of gutter where I took endcap off. Anyone know if I can scatter some magnesium chloride ice melt directly on roof shingles? Have to go away for a couple days want the opening I made for the water to drain to STAY OPEN. I know I can't dump rock salt up thre, but ice melt I was told should be o/k.

I'm sure it relieved it. I just wanted to point out that the gutter isn't the cause. I'v seen people yank the gutters because of the ice and still have problems. Ice can do weird things. Most times the ice in the gutter is from the icicles from the roof filling the gutter, the icicles from the roof ARE the result of the ice dam. The biggest problem with gutters is they hold all that ice up pretty much doubling what the eve would normally carry.
You could dump rock salt up there if its what you have. Shingles are asphalt more or less just like the roads. It's not likely good for the gutters but we arent talking constant exposure.

[DawnMTL]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I see (at least in coastal areas) they are doing a lot of hedging toward a rain/snow mix for both the Saturday and Tuesday storms now.....and for Tuesday looks like they're talking about 40 for the CT coast and 45 for NYC! Maybe the winds of change are coming (though I wonder if this still means snow for Hartford......sorry DandJ )

If you're really sorry, show me by cleaning out my gutters, clearing off the roof, shoveling the driveway and walkway, and walking my dog, OK?

Too much to ask?

Yeah.

Thanks for thinking of me, though.

[K2000kid]

Can the weather on Feb 2 be used to predict the rest of the season
winter should start winding down after this Febuary 2nd if all goes right.

Cloudy= shorter winter
Sunny = 6 more weeks

[ctwhitechin]

I just want my flight to take off Sat morning and get me out of here. This sucks.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

You cant win this time around wave..your warm weather got hammered this year....

Looks like Joe Bastardi might be siding with "Mr. Heat Miser" for a change....

AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Thank You Sir, May I Have Another Storm? (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45242/thank-you-may-i-have-another-s.asp - broken link)