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Old 02-16-2011, 06:16 PM
 
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We had some freezing rain this evening. Did you see it Cam?
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Old 02-16-2011, 06:33 PM
 
Location: Montreal -> CT -> MA -> Montreal -> Ottawa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
lmao..I found this image and it pretty much sums it up for now... More details at the end of the week...Enjoy the quiet weather this week and warm temps! Dont think about anything else right now. Enjoy it.







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Old 02-16-2011, 07:48 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trishguard View Post
We had some freezing rain this evening. Did you see it Cam?
Yeap.. was a quick precip wave flying through...I actually had a few sleet pellets fall then changed to drizzle for just a couple minutes.
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Old 02-17-2011, 05:12 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Good Morning All, I guess I should backup what I been saying with some images and explainations..

First let me say this... 70 and sunny in Philly Tomorrow, 20s and snow possible on Tuesday there.

Second: This storm on the 22nd started as rain for us as it was passing well north, then it was an ice storm as it started coming south more, the latest has it continuing the south trend and gives us snow in CT.

Third: I use the tools made available to us thanks to technology to tell you what could happen, not my own hopes and wants like some.

Lastly: Going over model by model basis:
2 models: heavy snow over half foot for the state.(6-10")
1 model: mix rain/snow most of the storm
1 model: ice storm
1 model: rain to light snow on backend

Remember the rule: over 7 days its about if a storm is showing up.... 4-6days is about trend and track....0-4 days track, temps and precip amount.

The trend has been moving south and most of the models agree on a frozen precip... THE crazy thing at this point is...it could totally miss us if it keep trending south and we get nothing.

Look at this image... notice the Low right over West Virginia and PA...then look at the image to the right which was at the same time frame and the Low is over Cape Cod...Previous run was an ice event, current run an all snow 6-8" event... Notice the current is south more and slower with the storm then the previous.


Here's the Surface and precip map from this one model... Blues over CT indicate close to an 1 inch and that blue line going across the country is the freezing line...



Enjoy: I'll have more tonight. All models are in agreement of a storm, now we look for the track.
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Old 02-17-2011, 05:57 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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As we speak the southerly flow continues to strengthen …so it looks like the next several days are still on tap to be quite warm. The NWS NYC is forecasting highs on Friday of 63 F in NYC. I did a little checking:

The records for this Friday could fall: February 18th record at NWS Bridgeport is 60 F (1981)…68 F in Central Park (1981)…and 68 F up in Windsor Locks (1981). Based on the strength of the high that is bring us a return flow (temps were near 80 today in parts of the southeast), I think these records have a shot of falling. Late February and early March are when the heat starts building in the subtropical Gulf/south Atlantic states, so warm air is never far off a southerly flow develops.

As far as what we see downstream…the weather pattern looks pretty benign as we head into the last week - of the last month - of meteorological winter from the Tri-State area southward: A few days ago I thought there was a chance that a low moving through the middle of the country might make to the East Coast around New Jersey and perhaps pull down some modestly cool air on Mon/Tue…but the latest indications are that the low will cut deeper toward the Great Lakes, so we in the Tri-State area should see nothing more than a light mix of snow/rain on Mon or Tue, that will quickly pull away. They could also be looking at a modest snowstorm up in the high Plains and upper Midwest next week. For us, most of next week will again feature rather nice weather for late February, with sunny skies and seasonal temps in the 30's early in the week, moderating into the lower 40's by the end of next week. The first week of March looks like another warmer moderation with temps that could hit 50 F again across the Tri-State area.



Here is the NWS forecast :

NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: Middletown CT
41.55°N 72.66°W

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 49.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Friday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. West wind around 9 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Windy,

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 21.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Washington's Birthday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.
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Old 02-17-2011, 06:48 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
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A snow scenario would be interesting in that quite a few districts in CT (Norwalk and Trumbull are two FFC examples I know of) are using the Feb. break to make up "snow days" (initially it seems ridiculous given that it is not out of the question to snow during that break, but the logic seems to be more time to review for the CMT's and CAPT's in March). I guess it could come back to bite them a bit.
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Old 02-17-2011, 06:55 AM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
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The NWS extended forecast for Hartford area would seem to agree with the "complete miss" scenario for next week.
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Old 02-17-2011, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Lastest model has it breaking off into 2 systems. One Monday and One Tuesday. The one Monday (which is not the main low) will bring rain to area, the 2nd main one goes "SOUTH" of us bringing snow to Baltimore, Philly and Atlantic City NOT Connecticut!

Like I said the south trend has been continuing for a week now, at this pace North Carlolina will get snow and not us. LOL No, No, relax... What's being said is, cold air will be filtering in. 4-5 days now so we need to keep an eye on that track...

This was based on just 1 particular model.. More tonight.
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Old 02-17-2011, 10:18 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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You guys like NOAA, no problem...Here you go...

National Weather Service Text Product Display

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...THUS MAINTAINING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE. WILL KEEP WITH SIMPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR NOW...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. MIGHT HAVE TO ADJUST
COLDER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH FUTURE UPDATES SHOULD MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE

Goodbye 50's-60s. They'll be back soon, dont worry.
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Old 02-17-2011, 10:44 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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At this hour from the NWS Tri-State office:

NYC (Central Park) – 52 F
Trenton, NJ – 59 F
Chester, CT – 55 F

Based on this, and the fact that the southerly flow is only going to get stronger ...my new forecast is NYC hits 68 F on Friday!


Can you say bye, bye snow cover!!!
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