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Old 02-17-2011, 01:26 PM
 
754 posts, read 868,514 times
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so put simply enough....

no big storm on march 1st and this winter is pretty much in the books?
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Old 02-17-2011, 01:31 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,273 posts, read 56,723,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mixum View Post
so put simply enough....

no big storm on march 1st and this winter is pretty much in the books?
You must have one of these: What does it say for 2015? Same difference.

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Old 02-17-2011, 01:33 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,273 posts, read 56,723,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
You guys like NOAA, no problem...Here you go...

National Weather Service Text Product Display
Same link above... Read bold.... Sounds bad.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO MAIN FEATURES. WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE DROP OFF IN TEMPS. AS
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
EXPECT ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA...BUT WILL INCLUDE MINIMAL POPS.

THEN CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
MAIN SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REMAINS NORTH ONCE AGAIN...WITH
WEAK LIFT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. AGAIN...MAYBE A
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.

THEN FRONT MOVES EAST. DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM...AND EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY. AT THIS
TIME...FEEL CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE
MET...25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS REACH HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA...OR 50 TO 60 MPH GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE WEST...THEN SOUTH. AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH
FROM CANADA...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.
CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
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Old 02-17-2011, 01:41 PM
 
Location: North Western NJ
6,591 posts, read 22,056,380 times
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i was actually going to ask if there was something going on with the winds...its been very gusty around here for the past couple of days...
i dont recall it being this windy in february normally, but i could be wrong, my memory isnt exactly great :P

will definatly check the tarps over the chicken run to make sure were prepared for some high winds.

id like, if at all possible to avoid more snow, were actually realy starting to see melt progress, my once 5 1/2 ft snow pile is now about 3 ft high! and the bench that got lost in december under the snow is actually visible! :P
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Old 02-17-2011, 02:12 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,036,259 times
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Truth: The block is gone. The cold highs are gone. The big snows are gone. The anomalous cold is gone. The rest of winter on the East Coast is likely to consist of a few bouts of a light mix of wet snow/rain…or rain…as mean daily temps steadily rise. Nothing you or he can do will change that.

But go ahead…you guys can team up and keep trying to hype up something and give only one side of the coin. Me and the sun will be on the other side.

Finally, do the letters FO mean anything to you?

Last edited by JayCT; 02-18-2011 at 06:38 AM.. Reason: Removed attack quote and response
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Old 02-17-2011, 02:21 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,036,259 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foxywench View Post
i was actually going to ask if there was something going on with the winds...its been very gusty around here for the past couple of days...
i dont recall it being this windy in february normally, but i could be wrong, my memory isnt exactly great :P

will definatly check the tarps over the chicken run to make sure were prepared for some high winds.

id like, if at all possible to avoid more snow, were actually realy starting to see melt progress, my once 5 1/2 ft snow pile is now about 3 ft high! and the bench that got lost in december under the snow is actually visible! :P
Don't listen to the hype here by certian people.

Your fine for the next 3 days. Fri will be great 55 to 65 F (if the sun breaks). Late this weekend/Monday...temps will drop off and it will become breezy as a weak low passes to the north of us, and drops a light mix of snow/rain or just rain. Skies will clear quick by late Monday...and the REST OF THE WEEK will be sunny and dry with temps in the 30's rising to the 40's by late next week at this time.

There are no big snowstorms coming in the next 7 to 10 days.
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Old 02-17-2011, 02:55 PM
 
Location: Texas
2,394 posts, read 3,590,909 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
This link is a reminder to keep those who use "averages" in check... Winter isn't over until end of March. Plusd these are fun facts we can all enjoy about this beautiful state we live in.
If you want me to think about those as "fun facts", I'll total up the extra costs I incurred this winter and you can send me a check for that amount. Then I'll be at least neutral about it.
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Old 02-17-2011, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,273 posts, read 56,723,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post

There are no big snowstorms coming in the next 7 to 10 days.
:Wishcast alert:

Could you please provide us a link or reasoning for this statement otherwise its considered personal opinion. Thanks.
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Old 02-17-2011, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,273 posts, read 56,723,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007;17569955 Posted January 25th
Let me give my prediction of the coming storm on Wed/early Thursday (since the media will hype it into a “blizzard” soon)…as

As to the snow coming on Wed/early Thur…it will be a very quick moving system no matter where rain/snow lines set up. So expect maybe 4 to 8 inches of snow across most of the Tri-State area…
The Result:



NEW CANAAN 18.0
WEST NORWALK 17.0
GREENWICH 14.5
NORWALK 14.0
BRIDGEPORT 13.0
DANBURY 13.0 215
SHELTON 13.0
DARIEN 12.5

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
MIDDLETOWN 15.0
OLD SAYBROOK 13.0
HADDAM 12.0

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN 18.5
MILFORD 15.0 300
BRANFORD 15.0 554
NEW HAVEN 13.5
SOUTHBURY 12.5
WATERBURY 10.5
BEACON FALLS 9.5
MERIDEN 9.0

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
LISBON 17.5
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Old 02-17-2011, 03:27 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,036,259 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
This link is a reminder to keep those who use "averages" in check... Winter isn't over until end of March. Plusd these are fun facts we can all enjoy about this beautiful state we live in.

DEP: Connecticut's Weather Fun Facts


Here are some other "fun facts"...from the NWS office in NYC/Bridgeport:


1) LAST 1 –INCH OF SNOW…March 12th (100%).

This means on average that by March 12th….there is a 100% probability Bridgeport will not see another 1 - inch of snow (or greater) until the coming December (the next winter).

2) SNOWCOVER (Number of days with 1 inch or more of snow on the ground).

Nov – 0.4
Dec – 3.4
Jan – 10.3
Feb – 8.3
Mar – 3.3
Apr – 0.2

From about February 15th on…snow cover from southern Connecticut/Long Island south… is fighting an almost impossible battle with heat/increasing solar angle/rainfall /surges of subtropical warmth…etc. As I have cautioned, although many a winter fan hides behind the camera…even the TV weathercasters know it’s just about hopeless.


4) MARCH SNOWSTORMS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA:

If you use the National Weather Service criteria for a Winter-Storm watch/warning in terms of snowfall, then 6.0 inches of snow or greater would be considered a “snowstorm” I realize folks in places like Buffalo or Duluth would laugh at 6 inches being considered a snowstorm. Below are the number or 6.0 inch + “snowstorms” at NWS Bridgeport over the last 60 years (1948 – 2008) in March:

3/16/2007 – 6.0 inches
3/7/2003 - 7.0 inches.
3/13/1993 - 10.6 inches.
3/19/1992 – 7.1 inches.
3/29/1974 – 7.6 inches.
3/22/1967 - 11. 1 inches (The largest snowstorm in March in Southern CT in 61 years).
3/3/1960 – 7.5 inches.
3/19/1956 - 9.8 inches.

As you can see…there has been only eight (8) occurrences when a true snowstorm was recorded at NWS Bridgeport in the last 60 years. Put another way…only once every 7 to 10 years is there a true “snowstorm” in southern Connecticut in March. Again by March 12th on average…NWs Bridgeport has seen the last inch of snow for the winter season. Heavy snow and snowstorms in March across the southern Connecticut are not very likely, perhaps once a decade you might see one…although we went from 1974 to 1992 (18 years) without getting even ONE six inch or greater snow.



5) APRIL SNOW IN THE TRI-STATE AREA:

This is where the comic relief generally begins.

Since most winters on the East Coast are a disappointment for winter/snow fans…winter fans have somehow physiologically convinced themselves there is a real chance of significant snow (let alone accumulating snow) in April in the Tri-State area. This has been perpetrated by media outlets like the cartoonish Weather Channel. The scientific reality is of course quite different (it always is). Again… using NWS Bridgeport over the last 60 years here are the 1 –inch or greater snows over the last 60 years:

4/8/2003…2.0 inches
4/1/1997…4.0
4/9-10/1996….4.7
4/7-8/1996…2.0
4/7/1990…1.7
4/6/1982…6.0
4/4/1957…2.4
4/14/1950…3.7

In fact…if 6 + inches of snow is used as the minimal criteria for “snowstorm”…then there has been only ONE snowstorm in NWS Bridgeport in April in the last 60 years (1982). NWS Bridgeport records just 0.9 inches of snow in April on average.

Also, there have been vast stretches when NWS Bridgeport could not muster even ONE measly inch of snow in April. In the period from 1957 to 1990 (33 years), ONLY ONCE (1982)…did 1 inch or more of snow fall at NWS Bridgeport in April. Notice that 2 of only 8 snows…occurred in the same year 1996 (the snowiest winter in 148 years at Bridgeport). Snow in April in southern Connecticut is confined to a dusting in the first few nights/hours of the month on average. A true “snowstorm (6-inches or greater)” in southern Connecticut in April …well it’s like the 99-yard pass with 0.2 seconds left in the game. Possible yes. Likely, No.

of course without the pro winter spin
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