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Old 02-17-2011, 07:14 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,041,108 times
Reputation: 2117

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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Wow, a LOT of activity in the half-day I've been away from this thread. I have two contrary comments, one for the "heat miser" and one for the "snow king":




Your first statement above contradicts your 4th and 5th statements. Yes the probability is pretty low, but if it TRULY meant 100% then there would never ever by any 1"+ snows past March 12.
.
The data above is from NWS NYC: If you go to their site you can see all their data: I see your point, your 100% right. That is likely an error (a guess). Perhaps they mean that when they average out all winters…March 12th is the long term average date when NWS Bridgeport will not receive another 1 inch (or greater) snow for the rest of winter. I’ll check their site again.

I saw the rep points and the messages supporting my challenge of those who try to hype/spin the weather (NOTE: sorry I don’t rep back anyone…however, long ago, I found out that there are groups of people on City Data who follow each other around like little lackys and rep each other – so it’s just another juvenile waste of time). But I do note who reps me, and their comment, and thank you for it.

Understand my position:

The hype and spin of weather degrades it as a science. Yet, there are people (like the main poster on this blog - who I really believe is a TV meteorologist in CT, but that’s another story)…tries to hype/spin…create confusion and question when there is none… and give a biased “one sided view” of what they hope the weather will do. It is one thing to state what the computer models are showing, (which as anyone who has spent time watching weather knows full well, are only a rough synoptic guide, and quite often full of errors in timing, intensity, track..etc of weather systems)…but it is another matter to forever try to take the most extreme outliner and spin it into a wishcast. The post below about (“According to this close to half foot for CT... 7-10" for Eastern & northern PA”) is a perfect example: Here is the current forecast from the National Weather Service on the day of that comment:

NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: Middletown CT
41.55°N 72.66°W

Sunday Night: A chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Washington's Birthday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17


Why such a discrepancy from the official NWS forecast and the one a certain person posted above? Why no mention of any accumulating snow? Why is even the precip odds so low (30/40 %)?

Because part of creating a sensible forecast… is take all the weather information (not to “cheery pick “it what you hope will happen), and create a logical, sensible, and numerically weighted weather forecast (meaning a forecast that has the highest odds of verifying). That’s why scientists at the National Weather Service use many, many different models (not the one that supports their hopes). Anyone can read a computer readout – but it takes a real scientist to know what the odds are of such an event to verify (season, timing, climatology, ..etc). That's why we pay people at the National Weather Service to do it.

I’ll check on the NWS data.
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Old 02-17-2011, 07:48 PM
 
3,724 posts, read 4,768,841 times
Reputation: 4752
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Gee…If that is not the pot calling the kettle black. You only visit this site to bait me in your typical between the lines insults. I realize my presence is undesirable on this site because I show the pro winter bias of you and Cam in spinning the weather forecast in only one direction (cold/snow). That’s the great thing about the net…both sides get equal time, at least for now.

Truth: The block is gone. The cold highs are gone. The big snows are gone. The anomalous cold is gone. The rest of winter on the East Coast is likely to consist of a few bouts of a light mix of wet snow/rain…or rain…as mean daily temps steadily rise. Nothing you or he can do will change that.

But go ahead…you guys can team up and keep trying to hype up something and give only one side of the coin. Me and the sun will be on the other side.

Finally, do the letters FO mean anything to you?
Why are you so offended that some people enjoy the winter? Should they **** on your summer loving if you start a thread?
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Old 02-17-2011, 07:56 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,296 posts, read 56,780,103 times
Reputation: 12869
From CPC NOAA... Track is going to be key as usual... Climate Prediction Center



Last edited by Cambium; 02-17-2011 at 09:23 PM..
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Old 02-17-2011, 09:25 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,296 posts, read 56,780,103 times
Reputation: 12869
GFS 11:30pm update:

Still 2 storm idea. Monday Storm provides light snow to light rain back to light snow.
Tuesdays storm provides heavy snow to PA and Atlantic City and nothing to us. (Flashbacks)

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/02/17/general-us-flood-outlook_8314510.html (broken link)

The storm which comes from the west is going to bring rains to the Ohio valley and upper mid west and its putting worries on the minds of Minnesota. The Red River is forecasted to go above the record breaking stage from last year at 40 feet!
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Old 02-18-2011, 05:14 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,296 posts, read 56,780,103 times
Reputation: 12869
Monday-Tuesday Storm Update::

Quick check of things it seems like Connecticut is the fence on this one... There is a storm coming... that we know.....nothing to get worried about (except if its ice)

Just be prepared for ice, snow, rain and sleet.

Baltimore could see more snow than us. We could get more snow than New Jersey. Thats how crazy it is... Elevation is important with this one...

1st Storm: Early Monday Morning(2am)-Monday Evening(8pm)
2nd Storm: Either Nothing or 2am Tuesday-1pm

NAM: 2-4" Danbury, 1-3" elswhere Monday.
GFS: Ice North of Merrit, Rain south of Merrit Monday. Nothing Tuesday(northern MidAtlantic2-4")
Euro: Rain Monday but 2-4" snow widespread Tuesday
DGEX Rain monday, nothing tuesday
NOGAPS: 2-4" Monday, 1-3" Tuesday
JMA: 2-4" Monday

And here's NWS thinking... Just a mess... lol In summary, they are thinking snow at first them warm air aloft will mix in and it will turn to mix then rain at the coast but the snow will change to sleet and freezing rain Northern tier of CT then to rain... They also think the precip sheild will make it into our area for Tuesday which would support snow.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OF CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING THE FIRST LOW OVER OR NEAR THE CWA DURING MONDAY.
CAPPED POPS AT HIGHER-END CHANCE FOR NOW LATE SUNDAY INTO INTO
MONDAY...BUT OVERRUNNING PCPN MAY BEGIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING
IN AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER...RESULTING IN MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
WITH THE PROBABILITY THAT MODEL FORECAST TEMPS ALOFT ON A SW FLOW
ARE TOO LOW...WILL GO WITH SNOW CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN
OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...SNOW CHANGES
TO A MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST GUESS FOR QPF IS AROUND A QUARTER INCH...SO
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY FORM EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMPROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH. PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DOES EXTEND NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS. PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD OCCUR MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS FOR NOW...WITH
SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
SNOW.
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Old 02-18-2011, 05:54 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,296 posts, read 56,780,103 times
Reputation: 12869
February 26th Storm Update: More moisture associated with it then Feb 22nd storm.. .50-.75"

DGEX- All rain
Euro - All Rain
GFS - Rain to snow on backend

Next chance for snow would be March 3rd and March 5th. But thats long range so we'll have to check next week.
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Old 02-18-2011, 06:52 AM
 
Location: Connecticut
28,611 posts, read 45,118,409 times
Reputation: 8836
Default Warning

Please stick to the topic and stop the bickering. I have had to delete or edit a number of post which were off topic and flaming. It this continues I will issue more infractions and ban repeated offenders. JayCT, Moderator
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Old 02-18-2011, 07:23 AM
 
9,714 posts, read 9,382,018 times
Reputation: 5940
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayCT View Post
Please stick to the topic and stop the bickering. I have had to delete or edit a number of post which were off topic and flaming. It this continues I will issue more infractions and ban repeated offenders. JayCT, Moderator
Fine..if wavehunter keeps being sarcastic with his "contributions" to this site...I will keep getting infractions then. Just stop with the subtle shots at people who like the cold...why do it? Nobody here makes the weather..its just a place to throw out opinions and talk about it.

Last edited by jp03; 02-18-2011 at 07:32 AM..
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Old 02-18-2011, 08:09 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,041,108 times
Reputation: 2117
I have no problem discussing the weather…all the weather. Why am I to be a target simply because I prefer warm weather to cold weather? Other viewers of this site might be interested in more than one point of view. Is it not unfair that a single poster dominates this website with a single point of view?

Lets us have a fair discussion of the likely weather forecast…without anyone (mostly me) becoming a target simply because I give possible forecast scenarios - other than a big snowstorm.

From my time on the CT page - Jay has always been very fair in his moderations on this site (the CT page) in all topics…so I’ll take his advice and do my part.

However, I DO NOT expect to be attacked each time I make a comment about a how warm, or sunny, or nice the weather is…or might be in a day, week, etc. It seems fair that more than one point of view should be allowed.
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Old 02-18-2011, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,296 posts, read 56,780,103 times
Reputation: 12869
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
I have no problem discussing the weather…all the weather. Why am I to be a target simply because I prefer warm weather to cold weather? Other viewers of this site might be interested in more than one point of view. Is it not unfair that a single poster dominates this website with a single point of view?

Stating you like warmer weather is perfectly fine but constantly Mentioning just one type of weather is considered hyping.. I hope you agree with that..

Lets us have a fair discussion of the likely weather forecast…without anyone (mostly me) becoming a target simply because I give possible forecast scenarios - other than a big snowstorm.

We alll have been, and if my posts were actually read; one would see rain, mix, snowmelt and warmth is in them. Did I not mention the snow cover pack disappearing? The big snowstorms are supported by links and maps as with all claims of mine.

From my time on the CT page - Jay has always been very fair in his moderations on this site (the CT page) in all topics…so I’ll take his advice and do my part.

However, I DO NOT expect to be attacked each time I make a comment about a how warm, or sunny, or nice the weather is…or might be in a day, week, etc. It seems fair that more than one point of view should be allowed.

A comment is fine but a constant mention even during the dead of winter is sort of _____. All I do here is provide weather info of ALL types and the only reason my posts are deleted is because of responding to these posts like this which again reflects your issue, why can't I comment and state my opinion on a post like yours.

P.S - There was no attack with this post of mine, simply opinions.
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