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Old 02-18-2011, 09:13 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,501,135 times
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And to balance it out, another Model just out shows 1st wave North of CT and 2nd storm well south. Rain Monday, Nothing Tuesday.

I dont blame the people ignoring all these details and just looking outside for the weather. lol Less headaches like that. Less fun, but less headaches for sure.
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Old 02-19-2011, 05:26 AM
 
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We didn't get any storms, too bad, that would have been interesting indeed! It is very, very windy today, though.
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Old 02-19-2011, 05:38 AM
 
Location: Live in NY State, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
And to balance it out, another Model just out shows 1st wave North of CT and 2nd storm well south. Rain Monday, Nothing Tuesday.

I dont blame the people ignoring all these details and just looking outside for the weather. lol Less headaches like that. Less fun, but less headaches for sure.
Don't know which model this covers but Channel 2 News at 11 last night said a general 1-2" for the entire Tri-State area Sunday night into Monday and rain only in southern portions of the area (i.e. central NJ, and no snow at all) on Tuesday.
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Old 02-19-2011, 06:15 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Yeap...it wont be a big storm at all...that pattern is done with the big coastals as I pointed out Feb. 2nd. Key word is "Coastal"..

Even at all snow the highest total would be 6" with this storm...

Here's the latest: They are seeing what I saw last night and I knew they would make the change..The low is passing to our south so all rain is starting to be out of the question. I'm worried about ice now.

3rd paragraph first bolded line is the model I posted last night..Interesting that the "professional scientists" saw what I saw and make adjustments to forecasts..

Then my next post after that balancing out was the GFS which showed a changeover to rain which they acknowledge right after that line.

Then I look at the latest GFS and read the bolded red line for that.

Source: National Weather Service Text Product Display

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SE CANADA INTO MONDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH ENERGY
EJECTING FROM A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW...YIELDING A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PA BY 12Z MONDAY.

BUT UNCERTAINTY LIES ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK...WITH A SPLIT BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF
MEAN TRACK THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF LI MON MORNING...WHILE THE
GFS/GEM TAKE IT OVER LI...WITH THE GFSENSEMBLE TAKING IT SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THAT. CONSENSUS IS THERE THAT THERMAL PROFILE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A START AS LIGHT SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE SUN
EVENING...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF PRECIP CHANGEOVER MONDAY MORNING.

A LATER CHANGEOVER WOULD BRING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
MIXING WOULD CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS CITY AND LI. NAM SOLUTION WOULD
BRING POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST...WHILE GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT THE COAST WITH A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. BASED
ON THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING
FORECAST. A GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE...AWAY
FROM IMMEDIATE COAST. AS OF 5AM...NEW 06Z GFS IS NOW TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LI. IF THIS MODEL TREND AND CONVERGENCE
CONTINUES THIS WILL SPELL A MORE WINTRY SCENARIO THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL SECOND BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO OUR
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE A WIDESPREAD OF
POSSIBLE IMPACTS RANGING FROM LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...TO ONLY FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS BEING GRAZED WITH SNOW. ALL
MODELS AGREE THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW TRACK IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CUTOFF LOW
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/S CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AND THE EVOLUTION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT GOOD WITH FORECASTING
PLACEMENT/STRENGTHS OF CUTOFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT...SO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

THE ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THAT THIS SECOND EVENT WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN ALL SNOW EVENT - COULD SEE AN INITIAL MIX AT THE START.
STRONG...GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

Last edited by Cambium; 02-19-2011 at 06:50 AM..
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Old 02-19-2011, 08:24 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,501,135 times
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Upcoming Heads-up:

Those who live near a river or prone to floods better keep an eye on the upcoming rainstorms! With the rains and snow melt rivers could rise above flood stage.

Based on latest::

Feb. 26th could be a flooding mess in the state over an inch of rain some may mix with snow in the end.
March 1st another flood mess: Over an inch of rain
March 5th snowstorm possible: Half Foot of snow

All subject to change as time moves on but the Feb. 26th storm continues to show up.
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Old 02-19-2011, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,501,135 times
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74mph wind gust in Worchester, MA

0904 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WORCESTER 42.27N 71.81W
02/19/2011 M74 MPH WORCESTER MA ASOS
WORCESTER AIRPORT ASOS

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState....prodtype=public
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Old 02-19-2011, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,066 posts, read 56,501,135 times
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Wind Alerts all over the NorthEast. Here's the current pressure gradiant map. Such a large area. Reports of trees, roofs, porches, are being reported from all over. Hope you guys are safe and not a lot of damage is happening..

It should last for another 12-18hrs and die down Sunday morning.

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Old 02-19-2011, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Out in the stix
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we just got power back, lost it for a little while due to wind. Glastonbury. Some northerly blowing right now....hang on to your hats and toupees as necessary.
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Old 02-19-2011, 02:31 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Here we go folks...Snow is a coming. Get your shovels back out. The 3 week break was nice for sure.

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Old 02-19-2011, 03:11 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, work in CT
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I noticed these totals in the NWS text reports (i.e. NYC showed 1-3", most of FFC showed 3-6" numbers the variance between the 2 depending on whether I looked up a coastal location like Bridgeport or an inland one like Danbury) for Sunday night into Monday (and concurrently, your map shows to 1pm Monday). But it seems to be forecasting sunny but cold weather for Tuesday. I see they just updated the discussion and think the 2nd storm will go completely south of us. Then they mention more uncertainty about timing and duration and rain v. snow of another storm Thursday night into Friday.

It will be interesting to see if those school districts that cancelled Feb. break outside of Presidents Day have to "undo" that for Tuesday and possibly Friday. Based on the forecast map you show and the fact that it's supposed to end during the daytime on Monday, I would say "no" but the fact that many teachers and students had planned paid-for vacation trips that they are being "excused" from school (there are going to be lots of subs this week in those districts and many of the students that show proof of a "non cancellable vacation trip" are getting packets) I wonder if they'd be quicker than normal to make it a "snow day".

Last edited by 7 Wishes; 02-19-2011 at 03:32 PM..
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