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Old 02-21-2011, 09:18 AM
 
Location: Live in NY State, work in CT
9,576 posts, read 15,623,099 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
The storm over performed mostly West of us dropping 12-15" but seems like my thought of 5" being the max in CT held on even though some data was telling us more.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
NEW CANAAN ........ 4.6
WEST NORWALK ....... 4.5
STAMFORD ..... 4.0
SHELTON ....... 2.6
BRIDGEPORT ........ 2.2
DANBURY ........ 1.9

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
NORTH HAVEN .... 1.2

edit: Storm tonight will stay to our south and suprisingly bring possibly half foot to some locations in Jersey with snows all the way down to Baltimore maybe even Northern Virginia sees light stuff.

The 2.2" in Bridgeport will probably be updated (it was a 7am reading), though it may not be by much as most of the big post-7am snow occurred in NYC, adjacent parts of NJ, southernmost Westchester and Long Island (radar at 8:30am was really interesting.....a cigar-shaped heavy snow band that basically covered almost all of Long Island but little else).
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Old 02-21-2011, 09:35 AM
 
Location: Out in the stix
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all is quiet here in Glastonbury. Roads are wet but o/k. Maybe 2 inches (probably less) of new snow.
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Old 02-21-2011, 09:47 AM
 
Location: Hartford County
106 posts, read 338,073 times
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Default Yeah...

Yeah, I think it was overestimated this time... I don't think we got even 2 inches in Enfield/East Windsor which believe me the experts have been UNDERESTIMATING predictions here in this area all Winter, but thankfully I think we got about an inch, maybe an inch and a half tops, and it's already melting so no biggie... whew.
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Old 02-21-2011, 11:21 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,135 posts, read 56,597,294 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
The 2.2" in Bridgeport will probably be updated (it was a 7am reading), though it may not be by much as most of the big post-7am snow occurred in NYC, adjacent parts of NJ, southernmost Westchester and Long Island (radar at 8:30am was really interesting.....a cigar-shaped heavy snow band that basically covered almost all of Long Island but little else).
Looks like lower Fairfield County got the most.. Damn Greenwich had to prove my 5" max wrong. lol ..Wow..over half foot at the coast and Westchester too.

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
GREENWICH ......... 7.0
NEW CANAAN ......... 4.6
WEST NORWALK ......... 4.5
STAMFORD ......... 4.0
NORWALK ......... 4.0
WESTPORT ......... 4.0
BRIDGEPORT ......... 2.7
SHELTON ......... 2.6
DANBURY ......... 2.0

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
3 ESE MILFORD ......... 2.7
NEW HAVEN ......... 1.7
NORTH HAVEN ......... 1.2

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Old 02-21-2011, 12:01 PM
 
Location: Out in the stix
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I'm glad they overestimated this one...we've seen our share this winter.

Looks like Friday will be al rain? Thoughts?
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Old 02-21-2011, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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2-21 Afternoon Update on February 26th Storm:

Time Frame: Friday Morning - Friday Evening

Looks like models are lessening the precip amount which is good because flooding was a huge concern with this one. Given the current pattern and what happened with the last storm having a south trend..I'm going with the GFS on this one...

Those who dont want snow....make sure the low stays North and West of us

Euro: 3/4" Rain to 1" of snow after it passes. Low goes West of us
DGEX: 1/2" Rain to 2" of snow when it passes
NOGAPS: 1/2 Rain to 3-4" of snow. 998mb low goes slightly west of us
CMC: 2-3" of snow only, low stays south and bulk of precip stays to our East
JMA: 1/2" of rain to 3-5" of snow, low passes right over us
GFS: 1/2" of rain to 5-8" of snow I-84 and North of it

edit: Parts of Tennessee Valley will see 5" of rain with this system. Tornado's very likely as the warm muggy air in the southeast battles the cold air to the North and the system wedged in between.

Spring is around the Corner so any snow that falls will melt quick... Cold, Warm, Cold, Warm..thats the temp pattern we're in. Storms every 3-4 days is the storm pattern we're in. I'm still calling for Rivers to go above flood stage within 3 weeks.

Last edited by Cambium; 02-21-2011 at 12:58 PM..
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Old 02-21-2011, 02:15 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, work in CT
9,576 posts, read 15,623,099 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Looks like lower Fairfield County got the most.. Damn Greenwich had to prove my 5" max wrong. lol ..Wow..over half foot at the coast and Westchester too.

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
GREENWICH ......... 7.0
NEW CANAAN ......... 4.6
WEST NORWALK ......... 4.5
STAMFORD ......... 4.0
NORWALK ......... 4.0
WESTPORT ......... 4.0
BRIDGEPORT ......... 2.7
SHELTON ......... 2.6
DANBURY ......... 2.0

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
3 ESE MILFORD ......... 2.7
NEW HAVEN ......... 1.7
NORTH HAVEN ......... 1.2
Looks like we're dodging quite a bullet with the 2nd low tonight.....even Philly and Atlantic City have Winter Storm Warnings up now (which I guess is karma since they just dodged today's storm). They're saying flurries for NYC at best and nothing for CT.

As for Friday, I noticed in the OKX discussion they're thinking more towards the snow solution now especially the further north you go.....interesting since the NYC news at noon was talking about 50-deg and rain.

By the way, AccuWeather had a neat picture of the Merritt approaching rt. 7 in Norwalk from this morning:

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Old 02-21-2011, 07:17 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,135 posts, read 56,597,294 times
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You guys are going to get tired of me..or the weather very shortly...or maybe you are already. LOL

You guys better hope the latest doesnt verify.

Snow after snow after snow after rain after warm, after cold, after snow after rain... Every 3 days we got something happening. Some light, some heavy. Its mind boggling to see this..
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Old 02-22-2011, 05:34 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,025,273 times
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It’s common for the models near the end of winter to overdo the snow…as they don’t take into account the warming upper atmosphere. The storm this morning is a good example: AccuWeather was talking about a 7 to 10 inches of snow about a week ago from the storm last night/this morning across the Baltimore/Washington area. It looks like they got about 1 inch so far and the storm is breaking apart as it heads offshore right now.

NWS Sterling - Current Snowfall page

This week looks pretty nice across the Tri-State most of this week, sunny and modest temps. The most exciting thing in the coming week or so looks like a big rain storm around Friday across the Tri-State/Mid Atlantic area. There could be some big flooding if we get heavy rain.
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Old 02-22-2011, 07:26 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,135 posts, read 56,597,294 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
It’s common for the models near the end of winter to overdo the snow…as they don’t take into account the warming upper atmosphere.
I will agree ...and disagree at the same time. lol

A. Correct...The model "surface map" will not be accurate on the upper layers this is why I always tell people to "check their soundings". The soundings will show you whats happening in the upper layers and are more accurate.

B. Models do have the data on 500mb temps and vorticity. Its an extra step to take a look at them. Most people avoid this step and just use the surface map to see where the rain/snow line is..which is not always accurate.

C. The models all winter have always underestimated the "lower" layer temperatures.. Perfect example was Mondays storm. Was supposed to change to sleet or rain yet it stayed all snow... I will make a bet that the snowpack has something to do with it keeping the lower layer cooler than anticipated by models. We're staying 1-3 degrees cooler then models are showing and that has big differences as the Monday storm example mentioned has shown..

Here is the sounding for Sikorski Airport in Stratford CT for Saturday 1am..

Left column shows the atmosphere height. Lets use the 700mb level which is 10,000 feet up... go across to the solid white lines and you'll see them merge together...Thats moisture... Its snowing in those layers of atmosphere because Its showing -15 degrees celcius and it doesn't get warmer all the way down to surface at 1000mb. Surface map shows rain as the 32 degree line is North of CT but this clearly shows it snow all the way down to surface..

BUT LISTEN FOLKS- ITS WEATHER...WEATHER CHANGES. SO WILL THIS, SO WILL THE MODELS... Lets call them as we see it.

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