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Old 08-18-2011, 05:50 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
9,755 posts, read 15,789,961 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
The second wave off Africa would be the system.

As far as how models show that far in advance...They base it on atmospheric conditions, pattern recognition, teleconnections, fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and all the good stuff. lol. Thats why its a general and not a specific because so much can change within 2 weeks.
No, that makes complete sense, I wasn't aware there was an actual tropical wave for the NHC, NOAA, etc. to analyze that why I was wondering.....thanks!
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Old 08-18-2011, 10:46 AM
 
9,765 posts, read 9,451,532 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I know a lot of people are NOT clicking this thread and reading this but I think we should at least know our hurricane preperation plans. Doesnt hurt to think ahead.

Models CONTINUE to hint at a system heading up the coast.
If I see a strong possibility or high risk I'll start a new thread.

Until then... think ahead... I'm thinking sandbags...Trees not so much since they are far enough from the house. Sideways rain is a killer.

Maybe I'll even go out and spend a few bucks on 5" gutters.

WOW..... wow wow..

As much as I love your weather analysis and discussion (and i genuinely do). You are so over the top on this its not funny. So MANY things would have to happen for this system to create issues in CT. It has dry very stable air to encounter first..then IF it gets past the mountains of Hispaniola in one piece it could go ANYWHERE... cmon man this is what we talked about last year...
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Old 08-18-2011, 11:52 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,053 posts, read 57,425,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
WOW..... wow wow..

As much as I love your weather analysis and discussion (and i genuinely do). You are so over the top on this its not funny. So MANY things would have to happen for this system to create issues in CT. It has dry very stable air to encounter first..then IF it gets past the mountains of Hispaniola in one piece it could go ANYWHERE... cmon man this is what we talked about last year...
Yup. Waters are warm enough all the way to Jersey, but we have to watch the Trough, Dry Air, and Shear. Those 3 could make it so we just get rain and usual winds.

But it never hurts to have a heads up on the possiblity. It didnt show this for last month...or today...it's consistant on showing it for the 27th time frame...

ANYTHING CAN CHANGE BUT THINGS SHOULDNT BE IGNORED.
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:37 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Yup. Waters are warm enough all the way to Jersey, but we have to watch the Trough, Dry Air, and Shear. Those 3 could make it so we just get rain and usual winds.

But it never hurts to have a heads up on the possiblity. It didnt show this for last month...or today...it's consistant on showing it for the 27th time frame...

ANYTHING CAN CHANGE BUT THINGS SHOULDNT BE IGNORED.
I hear you..its when you talk about sandbags and 60 MPH winds that I shake my head.
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:47 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
I hear you..its when you talk about sandbags and 60 MPH winds that I shake my head.
Last model showed 60mph winds.... Me talking about sandbags is for my mind...Nobody else has to think like me.
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:49 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Last model showed 60mph winds.... Me talking about sandbags is for my mind...Nobody else has to think like me.


I know...Its just so far away yet!
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Old 08-18-2011, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post


I know...Its just so far away yet!
And it Hasnt even formed yet. lol Thats whats so fasinating to me. Actually Hunters are out to investigate "Invest 97" which is this wave and clusters of storms, to see if its now a Depression. I'm guessing by tomorrow it should be.
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Old 08-18-2011, 02:06 PM
 
9,765 posts, read 9,451,532 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
And it Hasnt even formed yet. lol Thats whats so fasinating to me. Actually Hunters are out to investigate "Invest 97" which is this wave and clusters of storms, to see if its now a Depression. I'm guessing by tomorrow it should be.
Oh I agree...its amazing how far the long term models have come.
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Old 08-19-2011, 06:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,053 posts, read 57,425,808 times
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Take a look at the front page of The Bridgeport Post 56 years ago today, Friday, August 19, 1955. "Floods of disaster proportions swept Connecticut" after the second deluge in less than a week left four major cities in a state of emergency. Governor Abraham Ribicoff called the floods "one of the greatest tragedies in the state's history

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Old 08-19-2011, 07:54 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
9,755 posts, read 15,789,961 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Take a look at the front page of The Bridgeport Post 56 years ago today, Friday, August 19, 1955. "Floods of disaster proportions swept Connecticut" after the second deluge in less than a week left four major cities in a state of emergency. Governor Abraham Ribicoff called the floods "one of the greatest tragedies in the state's history
The 50s had Hazel (1954, 113 mph gust in NYC, fastest non-tornado wind speed ever recorded there) and both Connie and Diane in 1955 flooding up the Northeast! Then Donna in 1960 (if you're one of those "purists" who thinks a decade begins with the "1" year and not the "0".....)
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