[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

7-21-11. 4:16pm: By the way... I truely still believe we're going to get hit with a hurricane this year...

I thought I said it..... www.city-data.com/forum/20117665-post2602.html

I thought I did back in Spring too. Weird. You think I'm just Jinxing things?

In fact Since April I was looking at things around my house as if I needed to prepare such as when I was plywooded my attic I kept thinking to save pieces for windows in case we get hit.

Ir putting Tomato stakes up make them taller to put a tarp over them to protect them from Tropical systems.

Weird. Thank God it wasnt a hurricane though.

[Cambium]

I've been hearing and listening to people talk about Katia in the Atlantic. Now thats hype!! I havent talked about it because NO...NO models have it hitting land... I personally dont believe it willl. Its like sometimes people want it to and always talk about Katia going more West.

I'll keep an eye on it but I wouldnt wory. It will have an Earl like path. We'll see some high cloud outter bands, thats all.

Even though one model had Irene making landfall from 360 hrs out(2 weeks)(and was consistant)... sometimes models dont pick up something in the atmosphere and will as time gets closer... We'll see.

[Cambium]

Katia::

1st pic is the model guidance. Notice all of them have a north turn at the end... 2nd picture explains that. Steering Layer of atmosphere.. If Katia gets stronger I might have to change my thinking to a closer to coast situation because then we need to use a different upper level steering product and that shows a more West approach.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I've been hearing and listening to people talk about Katia in the Atlantic. Now thats hype!! I havent talked about it because NO...NO models have it hitting land... I personally dont believe it willl. Its like sometimes people want it to and always talk about Katia going more West.

I'll keep an eye on it but I wouldnt wory. It will have an Earl like path. We'll see some high cloud outter bands, thats all.

Even though one model had Irene making landfall from 360 hrs out(2 weeks)(and was consistant)... sometimes models dont pick up something in the atmosphere and will as time gets closer... We'll see.

I agree with you..the only thing of note is simply the GFS has continued to push west...Still think it makes the turn East before NC...

[Stylo]

The chances of Katia hitting land in our region is very low, although hurricanes tend to travel similar paths one after another.

If this hurricane was any other time when we hadn't gotten hit by a tropical storm, our weather folks wouldn't even mention it in passing. It's just drumming up hype for ratings.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by jp03

I agree with you..the only thing of note is simply the GFS has continued to push west...Still think it makes the turn East before NC...

Models all in agreement through 5 days of no turn north..I think it still will but with each model run, its not as certain. Also forecast to be a cat 3 by the 5th day ..

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Models all in agreement through 5 days of no turn north..I think it still will but with each model run, its not as certain. Also forecast to be a cat 3 by the 5th day ..

HWRF a reliable Tropical model. One that took Irene East of Florida while NHC said it would go into the gulf . Even Accuweather meteos were saying "what are they thinking".

Anyway - HWRF showing a west move... No turn north which now got my attention. Click on the "FWD" (forward) button at the right to play the animation of the model.

the picture on the right is a closeup.
It stays weak which still keeps me saying NO LAND THREAT

HWRF katia12l 2011090206 Forecast slp Java Animation

Here's the last frame of it.... Getting close to make that North turn to miss us completely. I still say High Band clouds we'll see...thats it..

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

HWRF a reliable Tropical model. One that took Irene East of Florida while NHC said it would go into the gulf . Even Accuweather meteos were saying "what are they thinking".

Anyway - HWRF showing a west move... No turn north which now got my attention. Click on the "FWD" (forward) button at the right to play the animation of the model.

the picture on the right is a closeup.
It stays weak which still keeps me saying NO LAND THREAT

HWRF katia12l 2011090206 Forecast slp Java Animation

Here's the last frame of it.... Getting close to make that North turn to miss us completely. I still say High Band clouds we'll see...thats it..

Yea,.. the turn should happen. Interesting on the HWRF.. Guess the difference is 2 days ago the turn looked certain ..now it looks less certain but still greater than 50 percent/

[Cambium]

Here's the current Satellite, Katia's location, Katia's model projections and Earl's track from last year which we saw the outer bands in CT.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Here's the current Satellite, Katia's location, Katia's model projections and Earl's track from last year which we saw the outer bands in CT.

One thing..if you look, Earls turn is more circular...Katia will come more north and flat ..I 'm becoming less convinced this turn will occur before affecting the outer banks in some way..I dont think it will have an effect on New England