[Cambium]

and for our area:

AFTER THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU...THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC JET SHOULD HELP PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON FRI. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI NIGHT-SAT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...AND REMAINING IN THE 50S
ACROSS SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS.-- End Changed Discussion --

National Weather Service Text Product Display

[wavehunter007]

Today it 80 F in New Haven.

It looks like Sept will end near 2.0 F above normal at most area NWS stations. I think bret might be on to something with the predection of a warm and dry pattern in early October:

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | New Long Range Weather Forecast Update (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/55441/new-long-range-weather-forecast-update.asp - broken link)

[wavehunter007]

Nice when there are REAL scientists to consult about what the REAL forecast will be;

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | New Long Range Weather Forecast Update (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/55441/new-long-range-weather-forecast-update.asp - broken link)

Let me guess…Brett Anderson is lying…


Sorry about the 80 in New Haven today...but I was on the beach all day, the sun must have gotten to me

[Cambium]

0z GFS from last night has a closed low siting over Maine/VT/NH area from about hour 240 and on. The end result it shows is this.....

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Today it 80 F in New Haven.

It looks like Sept will end near 2.0 F above normal at most area NWS stations. I think bret might be on to something with the predection of a warm and dry pattern in early October:

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | New Long Range Weather Forecast Update (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/55441/new-long-range-weather-forecast-update.asp - broken link)

Except current long-range (at least the very beginning of Oct) has it suddenly shifting to quite cold, starting late at night on Sept. 30. NWS is predicting a low of 44 on the morning of Oct 1 for CENTRAL PARK (to put that in perspective, the record low for Sept. 30 is 39). That means 30s in most of CT (maybe 40 or 41 in Bridgeport and New Haven). Big change from a predicted low just below 70 for just 2 days before that.

The other cold snap mid-month will keep Sept. from being in the "top 10 warmest" (though last and this week's humid weather with warm nighttime lows is pretty impressive for late Sept.). I checked at least the Central Park numbers, so far avg. is 69.8, this week (unless the cold wave comes a day or two earlier than predicted) will probably make it end one of the somewhat few Septembers that averaged over 70, but #10 on the list is 71.1 (which occurred just last year BTW). An interesting side thought on that is unlike most months, Sept and Oct top 10 warmest vary across the board in time, not so "top heavy" with the last 20-30 years.

Brett's take on this being a warmer than normal fall is probably right, but there will still be more variability than that suggests.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Except current long-range (at least the very beginning of Oct) has it suddenly shifting to quite cold, starting late at night on Sept. 30. NWS is predicting a low of 44 on the morning of Oct 1 for CENTRAL PARK (to put that in perspective, the record low for Sept. 30 is 39). That means 30s in most of CT (maybe 40 or 41 in Bridgeport and New Haven). Big change from a predicted low just below 70 for just 2 days before that.

The other cold snap mid-month will keep Sept. from being in the "top 10 warmest" (though last and this week's humid weather with warm nighttime lows is pretty impressive for late Sept.). I checked at least the Central Park numbers, so far avg. is 69.8, this week (unless the cold wave comes a day or two earlier than predicted) will probably make it end one of the somewhat few Septembers that averaged over 70, but #10 on the list is 71.1 (which occurred just last year BTW). An interesting side thought on that is unlike most months, Sept and Oct top 10 warmest vary across the board in time, not so "top heavy" with the last 20-30 years.

Brett's take on this being a warmer than normal fall is probably right, but there will still be more variability than that suggests.

Will first let me say ...I pray for normal conditions every year. Global climate change terrifies me (all kidding aside). I like the USA and world climate just like it is now! I get the best of both worlds just as things are: I enjoy the climate of the Tri-State area from April though November...then get to spend time in tropical southern Florida/islands in the cold season. I can get in my car, get on I-95 and drive north and see snow in Maine or Atlantic Canada...or drive south and see coconut palms in south Florida. I hope things never change in terms of our climate on the East Coast, or for that matter the world.

However, more and more it seems the heat/humidity of summer is fading into fall, esp from the Tri-State area southward. That "variability" you speak of, is fading in fall weather on the middle East Coast. That concerns me. My theory on WHY October and November seem to getting warmer - is that it’s taking longer and longer for snowcover to develop in the Boreal latitudes of Canada (between 50 and 60 north latitude) in early fall. For it to get cold in the northern USA….the cold air masses need to develop in Canada (the USA is too far south to develop cold airmass – even in the middle of winter). If the higher latitudes of Canada keep experiencing record warm temps…record minimum sea -ice levels in the Arctic…and a longer and longer transition time from the arctic summer to the arctic winter…down here in the northern USA we will see less and less chances of any early cool weather.

As to the current pattern that looks develop over the USA for much of October – I think Brett Anderson is right on the mark. I do see a few fleeting cooler nights in early October (it will still stay well above freezing across most areas in the Tri-State region)….but beyond that…I think it is wishful thinking to look for any sustained cooler weather in early/mid October. As long as Canada continues to experience above normal temps likr it has been in Sept…down here in the USA we will NOT see cool/cold weather, it’s that simple. Yes, Sept 2011 will end not even close to being inside the top ten warmest…however it hardly felt like a "fall month". I was at Rocky Neck beach on Saturday – it was 77F…the water was 70 F…and with the strong sun and humid flow off the ocean...it hardly felt like “fall” ...more like June - lol.

It’s just a guess – but I’ll bet that with SST still near 70 F around the Tri-State area… coastal Connecticut, Long Island, and coastal New Jersey will not see a frost till mid November. We’ll see

[Cambium]

The senario next couple weeks features warm and cloudy next few days, cool down next weekend, a warmup again, then a stronger cool down with northern CT hitting nighttime lows in the uper 30s. Southern CT I think low 40s. The second cool down will be brief but stronger then the first.

All just temporary invasions as it usually does in Sept/October.

I think we will be interested to see what happens on the mountains next week especially for Ski Lovers out there.

I'm going to say first frost will be beginning of October north of Merrit. Mid October south of Merrit. First freeze should come beginning of November BUT overall stay warm until January... We'll get brief cold snaps unlike last year persistant from November. lets see how I do with that one.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I'm going to say first frost will be beginning of October north of Merrit. Mid October south of Merrit. First freeze should come beginning of November BUT overall stay warm until January... We'll get brief cold snaps unlike last year persistant from November. lets see how I do with that one.

Maybe…but I doubt it.

Even areas just to the north of the Merritt are way to close to that near 70 F ocean water. SST are 70 F from Ocean City, MD to about eastern Long Island. In fact, I think the beach resorts down on the southern New Jersey shore, should see another good month of semi-swimmable surf in early October. Look at SST off the Outer Banks and Myrtle Beach – still near 80 F:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/c...atlanti.fc.gif


In March, April, and early May SST take a long time to warm up...and in October, November, and even early December SST take a long time to cool down.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Maybe…but I doubt it.



In March, April, and early May SST take a long time to warm up...and in October, November, and even early December SST take a long time to cool down.

Since we didnt get it during the Sept 16th cool down looks like we're past the average date CT usually gets the first frost. Goes to show these cool downs are typical for September but very brief.



October 2010 Stratford Nighttime lows didnt get into the 30s until October 31st.
Was 41 degrees October 10th.
Then mid 40s after the 13th with a brief warmup around October 25th.

September 2010 nighttime lows were mostly 60s and departures from normal was an insane 10+ many days.

This September 12 of 24 days have went below 65 there.

But I think overall this September might be warmer than last years...Not sure ...

FYI --- Top 10 Solar flares of Cycle 24, 7 of them came last 2 months...

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Since we didnt get it during the Sept 16th cool down looks like we're past the average date CT usually gets the first frost. Goes to show these cool downs are typical for September but very brief.

I think there are some errors in that data.

I would use the National Weather Service. Here are the official dates of the first frosts in the Tri-State area:

NWS WIndsor Locks - October 9th
NWS Danbury – October 13th
NWS Norwich – October 15th
NWS Stratford – November 5th
NWS Central Park – November 20th

National Weather Service Climate

Of course, the above stations are only where the NWS as a station. Normally, most areas of Connecticut (beyond the mts of the NW Hills) will not see a frost till at least October 9th. Here on the shoreline (including Stamford, New Haven, New London areas) we don’t see a frost until late October normally (Oct 20th to 30th). I grow many exotic plants – and can keep them out till the first days of November with no fear of frost in most years.

As far as this September (2011)…the monthly mean temps at most NWS area stations are running 2-2.4 F above normal. However, last Sept came in even warmer (3 to 4 F above normal). So has hot and humid as this September as been, last year was even warmer.