10-19-2011, 06:08 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
I'm still thinking a "2nd half winter" this year. I was 50% wrong last year saying snowless but fridgid... this year I say warm & average rains first half very Cold & snowy 2nd half.
I'm picking peppers from backyard in mid October!!!
That's funny because Accu Weather thinks the exact reverse.....a "1st half winter" kind of like last year but less intense....they even predicted a NYC seasonal snowfall total of about 30-35" (half of last winter but still slightly above normal).
10-19-2011, 06:25 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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And just like that, last run of GFS says What storm. What cold. It went with the model showing no cold temps next week.
I'm sure it will come back again tomorow. LOL. But notice the trend..
We're going to stay average...
Next pattern change should be around mid December.
10-19-2011, 06:28 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
That's funny because Accu Weather thinks the exact reverse.....a "1st half winter" kind of like last year but less intense....they even predicted a NYC seasonal snowfall total of about 30-35" (half of last winter but still slightly above normal).
maybe with the pattern change for mid December the cold air starts rushing in and then the snows after holidays to follow. Our blizzards last year stopped Jan. 27th. It was a first half winter.
This year the snow would be spread out instead of just 3 big storms but I think the cold air would be locked in place after Jan. 15th thats why I think a 2nd half.
BTW central park now #4 on wettest year list..Your right going into 2nd. Wow.
10-20-2011, 07:21 AM
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
That's funny because Accu Weather thinks the exact reverse.....a "1st half winter" kind of like last year but less intense....they even predicted a NYC seasonal snowfall total of about 30-35" (half of last winter but still slightly above normal).
I saw AccWeather prediction....colder in the first half of winter Dec/Jan...then milder the 2nd half (Feb/early March).
However, I've been watching temps up in Northwest Canada very carfully, there is a
scary lack of cold air up there. My guess (just a guess) is unless we see a really
deep build up or Polar high pressure over NW Canada very soon, like the first week of November - I just can't see how the first month of winter (Dec) will be anything but mild in the Tri-State area. Remember, for us to really get alot of snowy/cold weather, temps need to run at least a little below normal. Normal temps give us touch and go snow/cold...and above normal temps, well there is little true winter weather most of the time.
I think 30 -35 inches of snow in NYC is really on the high side - my guess is more like 15 to 25 inches.
10-20-2011, 09:15 AM
Location: Republic of New England
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Seems like every year October just becomes warmer and warmer frost becoming little later than normal
10-20-2011, 11:55 AM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
wavehunter007
I saw AccWeather prediction....colder in the first half of winter Dec/Jan...then milder the 2nd half (Feb/early March). scary lack of cold air up there. My guess (just a guess) is unless we see a really deep build up or Polar high pressure over NW Canada very soon, like the first week of November - I just can't see how the first month of winter (Dec) will be anything but mild in the Tri-State area. Remember, for us to really get alot of snowy/cold weather, temps need to run at least a little below normal. Normal temps give us touch and go snow/cold...and above normal temps, well there is little true winter weather most of the time.
Time will tell but that does make sense. That is a good description of what local winters were like from the late 1980s to about the early 2000s and the science behind them.
10-20-2011, 02:20 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Arm&Hammer
Seems like every year October just becomes warmer and warmer frost becoming little later than normal
Cool observation, I'll come back with actual numbers for you.. It does feel like that so Im curious myself.
Here's a short video that shows the temperatures for the U.S for this time period last year.
U.S Daily Temps October-December 2010 - YouTube
10-21-2011, 04:14 AM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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NOAA Releases 2011-2012 Winter Outlook - weather.com
Doesn't say much one way or another for here though.....
Worth the Wait: East Treated to Cool, Fall-Like Weekend (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/56662/worth-the-wait-east-treated-to.asp - broken link)
In relation to some recent posts, funny how this article says we're getting a "fall-like weekend" when it is the middle of autumn.....I guess winter is the new fall, LOL!
10-21-2011, 06:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
NOAA Releases 2011-2012 Winter Outlook - weather.com
Doesn't say much one way or another for here though.....
Worth the Wait: East Treated to Cool, Fall-Like Weekend (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/56662/worth-the-wait-east-treated-to.asp - broken link)
In relation to some recent posts, funny how this article says we're getting a "fall-like weekend" when it is the middle of autumn.....I guess winter is the new fall, LOL!
That is hilarious! Geez a fall -like weekend in late October..shows how the heat has almost become expected....
10-21-2011, 06:48 AM
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
NOAA Releases 2011-2012 Winter Outlook - weather.com
Doesn't say much one way or another for here though.....
Worth the Wait: East Treated to Cool, Fall-Like Weekend (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/56662/worth-the-wait-east-treated-to.asp - broken link)
In relation to some recent posts, funny how this article says we're getting a "fall-like weekend" when it is the middle of autumn.....I guess winter is the new fall, LOL!
This October has been very mild. NWS Bridgeport is running 4.7 F above average (monthly mean temp is 61.4 F as of today). Down here at the coast it has been pretty mild. I wounld't worry, as the solar angle keeps decreasing, cold air to our north has to start to develop sooner or later.
Over the years the more I think about it, the more I think our immediate local area climate (meaning CT/NYC/northern NJ) is always ready to go either way weather wise; Some years a very cool fall sets in right after late September...then we are getting cool to cold weather by mid October. Some years, like this year so far, summer-like weather just keeps coming and coming until early November. It really is a crap shoot. My bamboo is still the best weatherman(lol). When the new leaves really start coming out and the dry ones that baked all summer fall off - I know cooler weather is finally here!
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Travel time to work - 60 to 89 minutes (%)
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Educational Attainment - No schooling completed (%)
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Population in households (%)
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Geographical mobility - Same house 1 year ago (%)
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Place of birth - Native, outside of US (%)
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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Housing units in structures - 2 (%)
Housing units in structures - 3 or 4 (%)
Housing units in structures - 5 to 9 (%)
Housing units in structures - 10 to 19 (%)
Housing units in structures - 20 to 49 (%)
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Housing units in structures - Mobile home (%)
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House/condo owner moved in on average (years ago)
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Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1970 to 1979 (%)
Year householder moved into unit - Moved in 1969 or earlier (%)
Means of transportation to work - Drove car alone (%)
Means of transportation to work - Carpooled (%)
Means of transportation to work - Public transportation (%)
Means of transportation to work - Bus or trolley bus (%)
Means of transportation to work - Streetcar or trolley car (%)
Means of transportation to work - Subway or elevated (%)
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Working at home (%)
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Most Common Industries - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Healthcare support occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Law enforcement workers including supervisors (%)
Most Common Occupations - Food preparation and serving related occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Personal care and service occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Sales and office occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Sales and related occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Office and administrative support occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Construction and extraction occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Production, transportation, and material moving occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Production occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Transportation occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Material moving occupations (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutionalized population (%)
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People in Group quarters - Halfway houses (%)
People in Group quarters - Local jails and other confinement facilities (including police lockups) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military disciplinary barracks (%)
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People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
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People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
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People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
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People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
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People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
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People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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