[Cambium]

Saturday Storm Update

This is nuts. 1000 feet or more should see snow. 2000 feet or more accumulating.

Leaves on trees = Not Good

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/312603_10150434332422889_71781612888_10231883_8814 42330_n.jpg (broken link)

[Cambium]

Saturday Storm Update::

We are now within 60 hours of the storm... I feel obligated to mention the models...

The GFS that just came out minutes ago has given into what the Euro had days ago. The GFS was the one to show an OTS move...It's now showing a snowstorm event...

While I still dont believe the precip amounts it shows..the storm is likely to happen..

SouthEastern PA - 6-8"
Northern Westchester 5-7"
Southern CT-2-4"
Northern CT - 5-7"
Massachusettes-6-8"

These are not my numbers...Thats what the latest GFS has produced. It makes the storm stronger.

[Cambium]

Special Weather Statement for today/tonight.

1025 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2011
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...

1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO WET SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS TO WHEN EXACTLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO WET SNOW. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM THIS EVENING...BEGINNING FIRST IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

THE WET SNOW MAY FALL MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLUSH COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAINLY ACROSS ELEVATIONS AT OR
ABOVE 1000 FEET. HOWEVER...A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF WET SNOW IS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Saturday Storm Update::

We are now within 60 hours of the storm... I feel obligated to mention the models...

The GFS that just came out minutes ago has given into what the Euro had days ago. The GFS was the one to show an OTS move...It's now showing a snowstorm event...

While I still dont believe the precip amounts it shows..the storm is likely to happen..

SouthEastern PA - 6-8"
Northern Westchester 5-7"
Southern CT-2-4"
Northern CT - 5-7"
Massachusettes-6-8"

These are not my numbers...Thats what the latest GFS has produced. It makes the storm stronger.

Interesting.....anyway NWS is still saying "mostly cloudy" with 20-30% chance of precipation in CT (20% in northern, 30% in southern), though they've upped Long Island's chances to 60%. We'll see.....I'm smelling "dud potential" with this one.....they're even going with "partly sunny" and 10% chance in northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY

[7 Wishes]

On the other hand, Accuweather acts like it is the coming of the apocalypse:

Snow or Rain? A Nail-Biter for NYC, Philly, Boston (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/56969/nyc-philly-boston-snow-versus.asp - broken link)

I like how they use a late October snowstorm in 1859 as a precedent......I barely accept using much of the pre-1900 "official" cold records as precedent, that would be like saying the famous "New England Year without a Summer" in 1816 means that it can snow in June in CT.

[Cambium]

From News12 Joe Rao in Westchester... ..

""The start of the weekend hinges on the exact track and strength of a storm
that will be developing near the Virginia Capes on Saturday morning, that
will rocket to the northeast during the day. Out of four computer models, only
one -- the NAM (North American Model) takes this system too far out to sea
to bring anything more than just clouds to our area. The other three (the GFS,
Canadian and European models) bring the storm right up along the coast,
delivering a significant amount of precipitation to our area.

And because the thermal fields are so cold during the storm, the possibility
of wet snow must be seriously considered, especially for those locations
north and west of I-287/87. In fact, the snow could be of the clingy/wet
variety that could accumulate on colder surfaces such as grass, tree limbs
and power lines. I don't want to say anything specific about accumulations
just yet, but with the GFS and Canadian models pumping out 1/2 to 1-inch of
liquid, this "could" have the makings of an historical early season snowfall up
north! Highs on Saturday will only be within a few degrees off 40.""

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

From News12 Joe Rao in Westchester... ..

""The start of the weekend hinges on the exact track and strength of a storm
that will be developing near the Virginia Capes on Saturday morning, that
will rocket to the northeast during the day. Out of four computer models, only
one -- the NAM (North American Model) takes this system too far out to sea
to bring anything more than just clouds to our area. The other three (the GFS,
Canadian and European models) bring the storm right up along the coast,
delivering a significant amount of precipitation to our area.

And because the thermal fields are so cold during the storm, the possibility
of wet snow must be seriously considered, especially for those locations
north and west of I-287/87. In fact, the snow could be of the clingy/wet
variety that could accumulate on colder surfaces such as grass, tree limbs
and power lines. I don't want to say anything specific about accumulations
just yet, but with the GFS and Canadian models pumping out 1/2 to 1-inch of
liquid, this "could" have the makings of an historical early season snowfall up
north! Highs on Saturday will only be within a few degrees off 40.""

I agree that if things play "right", north of 287/87/Merritt (and certainly north of I-84) could have sticking snow (and I could certainly use Oct 4, 1987 as a precedent for that), it was in NYC and on the immediate CT coast that I'm questioning (and even more so in terms of the Accu Weather article, Philly thru DC).

In fact, it's snowing in upstate NY (i.e. Albany and Binghamton areas) right now!

[Cambium]

Very hard for me to even believe this.

Sleepy Sun - Check
Active Volcanoes - Check
Coldest atmosphere in 10years - Check
Warm Atlantic - Check
Polar Jet Diving down - Check
New Ice Age - ?

lol

As soon as Winter Storm Watches come out I'll make a new thread.

[Arm&Hammer]

This year has been a very strange weather...seriously from summer like weather in early October and now a winter weather near the end of October. Just too freakin weird, I gotta tell ya LOOOOOL

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Arm&Hammer

This year has been a very strange weather...seriously from summer like weather in early October and now a winter weather near the end of October. Just too freakin weird, I gotta tell ya LOOOOOL

Was just looking at that... Sikorsky broke a High temp record on October 10th at 85 degrees. lol