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Old 11-22-2011, 07:48 PM
 
9,765 posts, read 9,450,747 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind View Post
Love it! This trend is expected to continue over the next 20 -30 years! Snow/winter lovers rejoice!

QUOTE=Cambium;21816660]Interesting...

NCDC data shows that the contiguous USA has not warmed in the past decade, summers are cooler, winters are getting colder

“The last ten years of the BEST data indeed show no statistically significant warming trend, no matter how you slice and dice them”.

Using the mean temps for the decade...Look at the NorthEast. LOL!!
NCDC data shows that the contiguous USA has not warmed in the past decade, summers are cooler, winters are getting colder | Watts Up With That?




[/quote]

Yea..I think warmer summers and colder snowier winters will be the norm...
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Old 11-22-2011, 07:50 PM
 
9,765 posts, read 9,450,747 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind View Post
Let's remember how warm last November was and what followed. The persistence method of forecasting has been an epic failure the last 2 years in which snow lovers have delighted in well above average snow fall totals including several major snow storms much to the chagrin of the heat misers. I'd rather have the warmth now in November than in the winter months ahead.
Oh exactly..its great the weather is warm in November..enjoy it , its a treat. Winter is from December to March..thats when I want it cold..
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Old 11-22-2011, 09:13 PM
 
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
308 posts, read 608,198 times
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In 1933 on November 30th there was a major mild trend that continued well into December. A positive NAO developed across the area, but it flipped in time for Christmas eve when a snow storm dropped 12" in NYC. It was 69 degrees November 30th that year yet there was nice sledding in NYC 3 weeks later. The winter of 1933-1934 was absolutely brutal NYC saw 3 blizzards in February with -15 temperatures
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Old 11-23-2011, 05:53 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
9,753 posts, read 15,789,961 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind View Post
In 1933 on November 30th there was a major mild trend that continued well into December. A positive NAO developed across the area, but it flipped in time for Christmas eve when a snow storm dropped 12" in NYC. It was 69 degrees November 30th that year yet there was nice sledding in NYC 3 weeks later. The winter of 1933-1934 was absolutely brutal NYC saw 3 blizzards in February with -15 temperatures
The -15 is the coldest temperature ever recorded in Central Park, and the 19.9-deg average for Feb. 1934 is the lowest avg. temp for any month in the Park.

To put the -15 in perspective, after a -8 in Feb. 1943, it has not gone below -2 in Central Park and in fact the last sub-zero temp there was in Jan. 1994 (some say this is a sign of global warming, others simply a bigger "urban heat island" effect than decades ago......I personally think it's a little bit of both (and just a little bit of each), while nightime lows are significantly higher than in the past, average high temperatures are actually about the same or lower).
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Old 11-23-2011, 07:02 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,102,508 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
The -15 is the coldest temperature ever recorded in Central Park, and the 19.9-deg average for Feb. 1934 is the lowest avg. temp for any month in the Park.

To put the -15 in perspective, after a -8 in Feb. 1943, it has not gone below -2 in Central Park and in fact the last sub-zero temp there was in Jan. 1994 (some say this is a sign of global warming, others simply a bigger "urban heat island" effect than decades ago......I personally think it's a little bit of both (and just a little bit of each), while nightime lows are significantly higher than in the past, average high temperatures are actually about the same or lower).
Quite true. You beat me to it – I was going to say the same thing - temps below even zero are very rare at Central Park and other coastal stations in the Tri-State area (NYC/coastal Ct/New Jersey coast). Just the fact that the last subzero low was almost 20 years ago shows how CP must really struggle to get really cold temps. I even question the -15 F in 1934.

One other note on NWS records...just to show that even NWS records are far from perfect:

Back on the snow on 10/29 – 10/30 – 2011 BDL reported a total snowfall of 20 inches. If you remember I said there data showed a trace. While we had a trace here along the southeast coast, and BDL had obviously much more snow – I knew the figure of 20 inches was incorrect - but figured it was not worth debating with snow fans; Turns out NWS BDL had severe sampling errors in the measurement of 20 inches for the 10/30 snow event…and it has been revised downward to just 12. 3 inches. In fact, even the January 2010 monthly snow totals have been revised downward. The folks at Bradley aren’t meteorologists who take snowfall totals. People who watch and know CT weather have known for many years there is severe errors in BDL snowfall totals:

Disappointing News From the Weather Service | Way Too Much Weather


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Old 11-23-2011, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
2,703 posts, read 2,841,111 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Quite true. You beat me to it – I was going to say the same thing - temps below even zero are very rare at Central Park and other coastal stations in the Tri-State area (NYC/coastal Ct/New Jersey coast). Just the fact that the last subzero low was almost 20 years ago shows how CP must really struggle to get really cold temps. I even question the -15 F in 1934.

One other note on NWS records...just to show that even NWS records are far from perfect:

Back on the snow on 10/29 – 10/30 – 2011 BDL reported a total snowfall of 20 inches. If you remember I said there data showed a trace. While we had a trace here along the southeast coast, and BDL had obviously much more snow – I knew the figure of 20 inches was incorrect - but figured it was not worth debating with snow fans; Turns out NWS BDL had severe sampling errors in the measurement of 20 inches for the 10/30 snow event…and it has been revised downward to just 12. 3 inches. In fact, even the January 2010 monthly snow totals have been revised downward. The folks at Bradley aren’t meteorologists who take snowfall totals. People who watch and know CT weather have known for many years there is severe errors in BDL snowfall totals:

Disappointing News From the Weather Service | Way Too Much Weather


I don't remember anyone quoting 20"...I referred to 11.5" in West Hartford which is close to the (new) official Bradley total. Regardless, this represents a huge, significant snowfall for this early in the season, even if one ignores the impact on the trees and power lines. No way this could have been dismissed as a dusting or trace, and that was the main point.
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Old 11-23-2011, 11:27 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
9,753 posts, read 15,789,961 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rajmelk View Post
I don't remember anyone quoting 20"...I referred to 11.5" in West Hartford which is close to the (new) official Bradley total. Regardless, this represents a huge, significant snowfall for this early in the season, even if one ignores the impact on the trees and power lines. No way this could have been dismissed as a dusting or trace, and that was the main point.
You are both right. I still think 12" in October is significant in Hartford (heck, it would even be fairly noteworthy in Buffalo or Caribou/Presque Isle, ME!), but they did say 20", the Weather Channel had picked up on it back that. My suspicion was that it was higher than almost all other totals, even some "spotter" totals in higher elevation areas further from the shore.
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Old 11-23-2011, 06:23 PM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
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Looks like Central Park is at #2 for yearly precipitation now:

2011 the Second Wettest Year in New York City - weather.com
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Old 11-23-2011, 07:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,041 posts, read 57,425,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Looks like Central Park is at #2 for yearly precipitation now:

2011 the Second Wettest Year in New York City - weather.com
Yup..wow. Remember we were saying it would happen way back in the summer(I think August)...Its just the way things have been pattern wise.
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Old 11-23-2011, 07:10 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,041 posts, read 57,425,808 times
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Next Potential Storm:

Rainstorm for Monday November 28th & Tuesday 29th.

next BIG storm to watch is around December 4th still... Latest showing a monster storm which draws down cold air and temps drop rapidly at the surface and upper layers and even gives half foot to NYC.... STILL WAAY TO EARLY but lets keep an eye on that one..

HAPPY THANKSGIVING.
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