[Cambium]

After all those Above Normal temp maps from them... Updated CPC forecast says we now see below normal temps.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I didn't notice how long they've been doing it, if it's recent I think you're "dead on" (the only time I had heard of a NYC event like this before is back in 1996 when then-Mayor Giuliani had a special festival a couple of days after the all time total seasonal snowfall record was broken).

If it's not something that just started recently, the cold may be more the reason as they could probably make the snow. Since historically on any given date, NYC (and even the CT coast to some degree) more often had thin or no snow cover than significant cover (I think I read somewhere the average # of days with snow cover of any kind in this region is something like 25-35 days (NYC itself being closer to the 25)) which would place the odds at about 1/3 - 1/4. Certainly you don't have near-continuous cover all winter like I had 3 of the 4 winters I spent in the Albany area two decades or so ago.

I’m not 100% sure…but I’m pretty sure the Winter festival was a product all the snow of the last few winters and of NYC thinking they could increase tourism in the cold season (Dec – Feb). I think after last year’s record snowfall, they thought special winter festival would have no trouble with snow. As I always say, short term hype can mask the long term facts and create a false perspective of a any climate.

Your right about snow cover in the city and even in far southern Connecticut from what I’ve seen of the NOAA data. Long term, the city and southern Connecticut struggle to even get 30 days with snow cover. Continuous snow cover is needed for true winter sports. In some years, at least here in southeast Connecticut, we might have 10 days with true snow cover( so far this winter we’ve had only 3 days with snowcover). Snow cover in winter is another story upstate in Albany, Rochester, and Buffalo…etc. They get like 90 days a year with snow cover on average and two or three time the snow we get in southern Connecticut/NYC.

[Mixum]

Cambium what day(s) is that super bowl weekend storm looking like at the moment?

[Cambium]

Might get some accumulating snow Friday morning before the weekend stuff.

Models lost the weekend storm overnight. They are having a hard time handling some major changes.

As for Thursday night/Friday, it will be a weak coastal low passing by, very light stuff but could make the morning commute slick..

GFS


Canadien shows light snows all the way to Virginia coast.



Euro stays supressed south and has nothing.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Wednesday Temps back in the 50s. Look how far up the 70s come up. LOL

500mb is the upper air pattern. Look at the southwest flow into the NorthEast. Thats warm air flowing right up to us.

[wavehunter007]

I tend to doubt there will be anything in terms of a storm this coming weekend (Super Bowl Weekend). Most of the models (even taken with a grain of salt) seems to have lost the weekend storm. Most of the forecasts from NWS now show seasonal temps and dry conditions this coming weekend.

Otherwise, much of this week should see mild temps. In fact, by Wed (Feb 1st), the building southerly flow should send temps well into the middle 50’s in the Tri-State area. Although they are forecasting 55 – 56 F for places like NYC, based on how strong the southerly flow looks at this point – I would not be surprised to see a few stations crack 60 F in the Tri-State area 70 F at stations like Richmond and Norfolk on Wed:



Next week (Feb 6 to 12th) looks cooler with temps more seasonable, but nothing below normal at least the way it looks at this point.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Next week (Feb 6 to 12th) looks cooler with temps more seasonable, but nothing below normal at least the way it looks at this point.

Funny those dates are mentioned.

Storm potential would be around February 5th and February 11th.

But like Joe Rao's analogy... Models are like Lucy urging Charlie Brown to kick the football, only she pulls it away at the last minute. That's a useful analogy for what the models do 6 or 7 days down the road: they'll say: "Look everyone! A major snowstorm!" only to pull the threat away (like the football) a few days later.

http://a6.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/423378_10151222686470716_471145365715_22949257_210 6035249_n.jpg (broken link)

Last GFS update gave a foot of snow to Baltimore/NYC/CT on the 11th. LOL
I think the key point I need to make is.... It has not shown these "potentials" all winter. So to see them start popping up we cant ignore something is changing or is possible to happen now.

[papafox]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Funny those dates are mentioned.

Storm potential would be around February 5th and February 11th.

But like Joe Rao's analogy... Models are like Lucy urging Charlie Brown to kick the football, only she pulls it away at the last minute. That's a useful analogy for what the models do 6 or 7 days down the road: they'll say: "Look everyone! A major snowstorm!" only to pull the threat away (like the football) a few days later.



Last GFS update gave a foot of snow to Baltimore/NYC/CT on the 11th. LOL
I think the key point I need to make is.... It has not shown these "potentials" all winter. So to see them start popping up we cant ignore something is changing or is possible to happen now.

Even with the strongly +NAO during that timeframe? Like you said in your DM, I know NAO isn't everything, but it seems far fetched to think we'll get dumped on heavily (more than 6 to 8" lets say) with it so positive, espeically with the lackluster winter we've been having.

How's the PNA and AO looking around that time frame?

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

Winter is coming and all the snow/cold haters better book a flight for Florida after this week. Bye Bye.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by papafox

Even with the strongly +NAO during that timeframe? Like you said in your DM, I know NAO isn't everything, but it seems far fetched to think we'll get dumped on heavily (more than 6 to 8" lets say) with it so positive, espeically with the lackluster winter we've been having.

How's the PNA and AO looking around that time frame?

Well, the reason it showed a foot of snow for those areas is cause the NAO does tank negative on that run and the storm bombs off the coast.

Currently,
PNA is positive (East trough likely)
AO is Negative (Cold air filtering down)
NAO is neutral and going slightly negative.

The Players are falling in place, but it's the 7th inning and we're down by 15". LOL