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Old 04-19-2012, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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And now 12z UKMET model is exactly like the Euro. Crunch time now.

We should know by 00z runs tonight(by 3am)
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Old 04-19-2012, 01:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Last post until morning.

Latest Euro12z run as posted above snow totals. CT gets jipped with the snow but we're in for Strong Winds and heavy downpours according to it. And apparently huge snowstorm all around with a foot west and north of us. 2 feet in Canada. Mountains for sure would get a foot.

I dont make this up folks. Do I believe it? NO. But who the heck knows anymore.
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Old 04-19-2012, 01:51 PM
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Location: NYC
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Does the Euro model have a habit of over predicting snow and/or cold weather?

These look like nothing more than a computer artifact.
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Old 04-19-2012, 02:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Does the Euro model have a habit of over predicting snow and/or cold weather?

These look like nothing more than a computer artifact.
No, Opposite. It had a warm bias all winter (since November), and obviously right. I'm trying to remember the last few big storms if it was overdone but dont have much time to backtrack. I'm sure its posted here and I think it did pretty well. (check around Feb 29th)

Not artifact, its the output of the data the entire model produced for that specific time frame. In other words, the snow totals are based on all ingredients within the data it produced.

I would love to say human hands go into it but its just weather balloons and ground data that gets fed into the model then it analyzes a million different probabilities within and comes to a solution. Sometimes there's errors for a certain run, but usually CPC will mention it, they havent.
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Old 04-19-2012, 07:05 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Does the Euro model have a habit of over predicting snow and/or cold weather?

These look like nothing more than a computer artifact.
To be fair to all the models...many meterologists think the Euro is always on the cold/side of every storm. The euro often shows snow/cold in the Tri-State area well into late April/early May when the odds of such events are a million to one shot. The GFS is the better of the middle of the road I think.
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Old 04-19-2012, 10:22 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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It's Midnight...and It's Official.. GFS caved and Bowed to King Euro. NAM did also.

Get your ubrellas, rain barrels, and secure loose objects. This could get nasty.

NAM and Euro show a healthy storm that would dent our severe drought status.

GFS just out goes to the other extreme and has a Irene size storm. 977mb low right over us. Wind and flooding rain would be an issue.

I still think a middle ground but its amazing to see they all are leaning to a stronger storm.

I'll post pics over coffee.
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Old 04-20-2012, 04:53 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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NWS think that the bulk of the rain will hold off until late Saturday. This is good news as many areas in the Tri-State need the rain badly. However, I do think that due to the typically weaker thermal contrasts of this time of year, the low will not get quite as stronger as the models are predicting (typical), a 988 – 994 mb low seems more reasonable. Still, it will be a good and need batch of rain most of the area needs.

Saturday should be dry most of the day with a warm and moist southerly flow which should send highs into the 70’s. There should be a mix of sun and clouds, and by Saturday night rain showers will advance in. The best chance for the heaviest rain will be from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, skies should clear and dry weather with temps again slightly above normal should be on tap through next weekend:

NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.32°N 72.94°W

PF:

Today: Sunny, with a high near 70.

Tonight: A slight chance of rain or drizzle after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. South wind between 6 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 61. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: Rain. Low around 48. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Monday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 60. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 63.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 66.
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Old 04-20-2012, 06:12 AM
 
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Alright weather buffs...I have a flight leaving Bradley 7 a.m. Monday with a tight schedule to get to the middle of the country by early afternoon. Are we talking nasty winds and such on Monday morning? I am wondering if I should make a contingency plan for my scheduled Monday afternoon meeting in case of big delays...I should be flying into dry weather, it is just the departure I am worried about.
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Old 04-20-2012, 06:36 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mels View Post
Alright weather buffs...I have a flight leaving Bradley 7 a.m. Monday with a tight schedule to get to the middle of the country by early afternoon. Are we talking nasty winds and such on Monday morning? I am wondering if I should make a contingency plan for my scheduled Monday afternoon meeting in case of big delays...I should be flying into dry weather, it is just the departure I am worried about.
Yeah, that would be the peak of the storm. If it's as intense as some make it there will be delays.

We'll know a little more within 24hrs but I would have a backup plan. Worse comes to worse you'll be delayed not cancelled.

Just a reminder for everyone, I'm hopinhg to condense everything about this storm here. April 2012 Nor'Easter

Lets hope its nothing "as usual". A normal Rain and wind event.
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Old 04-20-2012, 07:24 AM
 
Location: Connecticut
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
It's Midnight...and It's Official.. GFS caved and Bowed to King Euro. NAM did also.

Get your ubrellas, rain barrels, and secure loose objects. This could get nasty.

NAM and Euro show a healthy storm that would dent our severe drought status.

GFS just out goes to the other extreme and has a Irene size storm. 977mb low right over us. Wind and flooding rain would be an issue.

I still think a middle ground but its amazing to see they all are leaning to a stronger storm.

I'll post pics over coffee.

Yesss!!

Perfect flying weather!

Got a plane reserved for Sun afternoon. Should I change it to Sun morning instead (I want to fly when the ceilings are lowest and winds strongest). I want to do it during the day too so i can take pics.
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