12-10-2010, 10:42 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
wavehunter007
Just to be fair to NOAA and their 90 day temp outlooks …the
reverse is what they are expecting :
....when watching the Weather Channel/AccuWeather - the greater
conceals the less . They seem stuck on the hopes for this weekend storm
I was talking about next winter not 90 days.
Dont understand the comment on TWC and Accuweather... They actually said it was complex. They are accurate in where the storm was coming from. And their accurate on what its going to do. In fact here's a map...Doesnt show anything for East Coast so not sure why that comment was made. Nothing was said in regards to hopes or false information at a given time.
12-10-2010, 01:55 PM
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
I was talking about next winter not 90 days. Dont understand the comment on TWC and Accuweather... They actually said it was complex. They are accurate in where the storm was coming from. And their accurate on what its going to do. In fact here's a map...Doesnt show anything for East Coast so not sure why that comment was made. Nothing was said in regards to hopes or false information at a given time.
That’s quite a twisting of the facts in their favor no?
TEN DAYS AGO, they tried to get the hype machine going with a “MASSIVE Snowstorm could hit the East Coast” headline. They told every single twists and turn of 50 model runs - when they know darn well (
or should know if they were not in it for the marketing angle )…that the long term numbers for a big snow in the I-95 states is tiny (and really tiny in early December), and the typically all the models are all over the place 120 to 184 hours out.
Of course that angle in not marketable is it .
Then of course, long term climate data…and real science…takes over had AccuWeather hype bites the dust - again.
In the end, nothing more than a rain storm and 50 F temps will pass over the East Coast this weekend…after all the hype. Next up on the hype machine after the storm...the cold in NYC for a few days. It will be in the upper 20's F for a few days next week in the I-95 states: Of course it will be -25 to -40 F in North Dakota too - but we all know how marketable that is
12-10-2010, 05:43 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
wavehunter007
???? You gotta start looking at the models more often. Not only I can prove the models were showing east coast blizzard but i can prove past storms that have changed hours and even during the storm. Point is...call it like you see it. Period.
You cant call it based on what you think or what "has" happened in the past. Thats not meterology or using the tools at hand...
LAST YEAR::NewCanaan December 6: 2 Inches December 9: 4 inches December 20: 12 Inches(Middlesex and New London County Up to 2 Feet!) December 31: 2 Inches
Very easy for someone to say "see no snow" or "wow,its snowing".. Once you realize the variables associated with weather you'll understand where I'm coming from.
It is amazing a storm is happening that was shown 2 weeks in advance... I find that unbelievable
12-10-2010, 05:59 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Are you guys enjoying the light snowfall this evening? I got accumulation on ground...only half inch so far but it might be the most I see for a while....
12-10-2010, 06:04 PM
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
???? You gotta start looking at the models more often. Not only I can prove the models were showing east coast blizzard but i can prove past storms that have changed hours and even during the storm. Point is...call it like you see it. Period .LAST YEAR::NewCanaan December 6: 2 Inches December 9: 4 inches December 20: 12 Inches(Middlesex and New London County Up to 2 Feet!) December 31: 2 Inches
No, the point is:
Anyone who attempts to use a computer to make a forecast 184 hrs in advance…
should have a basic understanding of world climate and regional geography . Therein lies part of the problem: Not only are these computer generated
fantasy forecasts spun for
maximum marketing value (trust me on that one)…but the users of these products at media outlets like the Weather Channel and AccuWeather increasingly
have less and less knowledge about the true climate of the USA .
Weather in the United States is no longer forecast…it is marketed.
PS:
DECEMBER 2007: Bridgeport (and much of Connecticut/NYC):
December 7: T
Monthly snow for December 2007 = T
You can spin that both ways.
12-10-2010, 07:06 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,514 posts, read
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
wavehunter007
Not only are these computer generated fantasy forecasts spun for maximum marketing value
Dear Lord.... The Euro and Nam showed a GLC(Great Lakes Cutter) 10 days ago...
I'm not even sure what your trying to debate here...The Models did show this storm going west of the Big Coastal Cities... The models spoke the truth... The models (especially Euro) are very reliable. Not fantasy generated.
Its all a matter of when they all agree.. Get it?? Usually they all agree 3-5 days before.. this one took 2-3 days for them to all agree due to the complexity of this one. But the Euro showed the exact path forecasted today from 10 days ago.
We basically show EACH model and TELL each forecast based on that model. Dont have to be a genius to understand that. Everyone knows risks, facts, history, averages, and chances... it has nothing to do with explaining whats happening and what could happen.
I think we're on a cul-de-sac here ..
2007 was another LaNina year..I'll never forget it cause we had green grass all winter.
I'm starting to think the way I did 2 months ago that we're repeating that.
You say it doesnt snow in December,...I'm proving it does.
12-10-2010, 07:21 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Posted on December 5th, 2010.....5 days ago! The Euro was right all along. Dont dismiss the models. I even said blow east because I knew the Euro would win.
Lets move on. Storm on 20th I havent looked into... Anything on that??
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
2 Different Model senarios.. Blue Rain...Red Snow... Where's Superman so he can blow it east...
12-11-2010, 06:23 AM
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Dear Lord.... The Euro and Nam showed a GLC(Great Lakes Cutter) 10 days ago... You say it doesnt snow in December,...I'm proving it does .
You know that my point is that AccuWeather/Weather Channel (and others including the local News like Channel 8),
try to spin all the twists and turns of the models for maximum hype/marketing . I'm well aware of what the models showed 10 days ago. The difference is that
everyone knows that all the twists and turns of the model is nothing more than fantasy when compared to long term climate data. I never said it didn’t snow in December on the East Coast –
I did say there is a
TINY CHANCE of a big snow in the I-95 states…and they know it! Yet, they will say something dramatic like “The models are hinting at a major East Coast storm next week folks”. They make those statements
PURLY FOR MARKETING REASONS . I only caution you not follow the pro-winter/spin hype masters (i.e Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity, AccuWeather, Weather Channel,…etc)…off the cliff of hype/spin and biased wish casting.
Remember grasshopper – ALL science is based on gathering the facts in an unbiased way…then using those facts to come to a logical consensus of what has the highest probability of occurring…
not twisting the facts, then trying to spin the least likely event to create drama for marketing reasons, while forcing ones bias or agenda. Only someone who has spent years DOING science would be greatly angered by this.
Enjoy the rainstorm on Sunday. Temps might crack 55 F in southern Connecticut. My bamboo needs the rain
12-11-2010, 06:37 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,514 posts, read
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Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by
wavehunter007
You know that my point is that AccuWeather/Weather Channel (and others including the local News like Channel 8), try to spin all the twists and turns of the models for maximum hype/marketing . I'm well aware of what the models showed 10 days ago.
Yet I didnt see a post from you regarding this storm 14 days ago...So let me see...you're one of those that dont tell anyone about a storm, say there's little chance of snow, then it rains and you say "see Im right" if it does snow then you simply say "wow, this rare"??
I see. Interesting.
I'm a realist...I will call it as I see it at a particular moment. If its showing Typoon on East Coast I will say it....If it shows warm rain, I'll say it... Lets get back on topic now. I'll ask you again.... Whats your thoughts on Dec 19th storm? Or should we wait until after it passes?
12-11-2010, 09:54 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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This is just a thing of beauty...Looks at the 2 storms! One moving North up the coast...One moving NorthEast into Great Lakes....EXACTLY how the models showed...Unfortunetly the air temp has changed for the warmer side. But this is spitting image of what the models showed 7+days ago. Good stuff. Current Radar. GFS Model (the more unreliable one actually was right)This was at Hour 192(192 Hours away) You can see the 2 Lows further south here.
Last edited by Cambium; 12-11-2010 at 10:16 AM ..
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People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards and hospices for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospices or homes for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Military hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Other hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals or wards for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Mental (Psychiatric) hospitals or wards (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the blind (%)
People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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I'm starting to think the way I did 2 months ago that we're repeating that. 
