[Cambium]

The reason why we have 5 day forecasts and 10 day forecasts is because we have the technology to do so. We rely on computer models to tell us.

Well let me show you what 'ONE" of the models tell us. We already know the Euro is saying nothing.... Here's the latest GFS... Fairfield County gets the most. Its like a dream come true for me. LOL

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

?? You said 45-50 and its 35-40 in CT..thats not bad? sigh..arguing with you guys on this is a lesson in futility..neither of you will ever admit you were qwrong..even when its beyond obvious.

You are being a bit narrow no? When a forecast calls for temps from 45 to 50 F…once would take it as the temp could come in at 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, or 50 F. The temps in the Tri-State will be near 40 F this weekend…so yes I was off by 5 F in the range I wrote. I off was in Miami by 2 or 3 F…highs will be 79 F…I said low 80’s (81, 82 F…etc). I’m not a computer

However, let us not continue to debate the obvious: the severe cold snap in the Eastern USA is history starting tomorrow. Temps will moderate a little each day from Florida to Maine without question. I don’t think anyone can argue with that.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

The reason why we have 5 day forecasts and 10 day forecasts is because we have the technology to do so. We rely on computer models to tell us.

Well let me show you what 'ONE" of the models tell us. We already know the Euro is saying nothing.... Here's the latest GFS... Fairfield County gets the most. Its like a dream come true for me. LOL

Now, let’s deal with the this weekend storm...as I can see the hype wave building :

I know your breathing fire you want a snow in the Tri-State so bad. Again, just a few words of caution grasshopper:

Yes, this is as close as the East coast/Tri-State has gotten so far this winter to getting into the snow action. We still have several days to go before it is even remotely clear what this low will do (it is still northing more than a bend 500 miles off the coast of CA right now). Here are some of the reasons (beyond climo – which tells me a big snow on the East Coast is a always a long shot ): First, only the GFS is showing a big storm. New Euro has the storm going out to sea...and so do ALL the other operational models. So this far out, it’s like throwing darts at a board. The real issue I have that tells me it will not be a big East Coast storm and fly off the mainland as just a rain storm near South Carolina - is that the blocking to the north of the storm makes a north/northwest cut a little farfetched. The pattern that this storm looks like (right now) it will be heading into should help deflect it harmlessly out to sea WELL south of our area.

Right now...to me, the only real issue is how close the precip (and snow) shield get to Cape Cod (I give it 25 %)....Long Island/eastern Connecticut (I give it 15 %)...or Western Connecticut/NYC/NJ (I give it 5% )?

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

You are being a bit narrow no? When a forecast calls for temps from 45 to 50 F…once would take it as the temp could come in at 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, or 50 F. The temps in the Tri-State will be near 40 F this weekend…so yes I was off by 5 F in the range I wrote. I off was in Miami by 2 or 3 F…highs will be 79 F…I said low 80’s (81, 82 F…etc). I’m not a computer

However, let us not continue to debate the obvious: the severe cold snap in the Eastern USA is history starting tomorrow. Temps will moderate a little each day from Florida to Maine without question. I don’t think anyone can argue with that.

Heh..you wont admit you were wrong. So funny ..like I said I was the one who nailed it saying the warm air would arrive Christmas week. ...Anybody can forecast Miami's high within 5 degrees...that takes no skill whatsoever. And your Carolinas forecast could not have been further off. As for the tri-state, you had that warm air diving in at this point..not so. If you don't want to admit you were wrong fine.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Now, let’s deal with the this weekend storm...as I can see the hype wave building :

I know your breathing fire you want a snow in the Tri-State so bad. Again, just a few words of caution grasshopper:

Yes, this is as close as the East coast/Tri-State has gotten so far this winter to getting into the snow action. We still have several days to go before it is even remotely clear what this low will do (it is still northing more than a bend 500 miles off the coast of CA right now). Here are some of the reasons (beyond climo – which tells me a big snow on the East Coast is a always a long shot ): First, only the GFS is showing a big storm. New Euro has the storm going out to sea...and so do ALL the other operational models. So this far out, it’s like throwing darts at a board. The real issue I have that tells me it will not be a big East Coast storm and fly off the mainland as just a rain storm near South Carolina - is that the blocking to the north of the storm makes a north/northwest cut a little farfetched. The pattern that this storm looks like (right now) it will be heading into should help deflect it harmlessly out to sea WELL south of our area.

Right now...to me, the only real issue is how close the precip (and snow) shield get to Cape Cod (I give it 25 %)....Long Island/eastern Connecticut (I give it 15 %)...or Western Connecticut/NYC/NJ (I give it 5% )?

I think you are right on this one....

[Cambium]

::UPDATE::

New GFS model has it going OTS. And so it will Dance in the Atlantic with the Euro and the rest of them... Can we confirm this still 5 days out? I will for now. No snow for us.

See you guys in February. I'll poke in mid January after we warm up. Maybe take a look at the 27th of December for the next chance at a storm but I'm tired.

Last year was very different... all models showed SnowStorm on East Coast and all we did was follow the track...This year we're guessing which model to believe.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

::UPDATE::

New GFS model has it going OTS. And so it will Dance in the Atlantic with the Euro and the rest of them... Can we confirm this still 5 days out? I will for now. No snow for us.

See you guys in February. I'll poke in mid January after we warm up. Maybe take a look at the 27th of December for the next chance at a storm but I'm tired.

Last year was very different... all models showed SnowStorm on East Coast and all we did was follow the track...This year we're guessing which model to believe.

Na..actually this one was never a question.

[HeadedWest]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Saying that we are cold for a coastal area at this latitude is a little misleading when you compare us to a West Coast climate like Europe of the Pacific Northwest: It is well known that there is a tendency for monsoon circulations on East Coasts (mostly in East Asia and the USA East Coast) this accentuates the seasonal temperatures ...making for cold winters and hot summers. Europe or the Pacific NW at the same latitude is warmer in the cold season that we are...but we are warmer in the hot season than they are.

Great, we get the worst of both seasons.

[Cambium]

Its kinda working. Not talking about the storm and now the most reliable model (The Euro) has come back west giving an I-95 snowstorm BUT North more. The NAM model moved West too and the GFS (most unreliable) staying OTS!

I say New Haven and NorthEastward need to watch this closely...So does Fairfield county for that matter. Lots of sleepless night this year with these models. Last year was different!!

[Cambium]

Snowing hard in Norfolk, Virgina and North Carolina.... in December....Must be those warm waters again.:s mack: