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Old 12-16-2010, 09:31 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Snowing hard in Norfolk, Virgina and North Carolina.... in December....Must be those warm waters again.:s mack:

Your right…but to keep the hype in check a little…more accurately, it is snowing lightly in Virginia and far northern North Carolina. Most of these areas will only get 3 to 5 inches of snow (highest inland).

One other note of interest. The back of the cold snap is now officially broken: The warmth is surging through the Gulf/south Atlantic states as the low pulls up tropical air on its east side. At this hour, Miami is reporting 69 F ...New Orleans – 72 F...Jacksonville, Fl 61 F...and Charleston, South Carolina 55 F. I still think some NWS stations in Connecticut/Tri-State will crack 40 F today. Must be the Gulf and south Atlantic southerly flow





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Old 12-16-2010, 09:32 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
::UPDATE::

New GFS model has it going OTS. And so it will Dance in the Atlantic with the Euro and the rest of them... Can we confirm this still 5 days out? I will for now. No snow for us.

See you guys in February. I'll poke in mid January after we warm up. Maybe take a look at the 27th of December for the next chance at a storm but I'm tired.

Last year was very different... all models showed SnowStorm on East Coast and all we did was follow the track...This year we're guessing which model to believe.
**UPDATE**

Immm Baacckkk... Someone call my cardiologist. Overnight the most reliable model decides to take it WEST more and also one more model did as well...

The most recent GFS model that just came out has snow for us now. Last years December 20th storm DID THE SAME THING in regards to it showing way out to sea and then back to coast within 48 hours dumping a foot on us. Who would have thought it could happen again?

Its been a tough year for forecasting. Models are insane.

According to this latest through Sunday (NOT SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY!) ... Fairfield County & New Haven county would see .25 precip which would equate to 2-4 inches... Middlesex & New London .50 precip which could equate to half foot.

The more West it trends, the higher the totals will be.

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Old 12-16-2010, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Its showing it stalls just NorthEast of us...that means it would dump dump dump snow for 24 hours in Boston vicinity.
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Old 12-16-2010, 09:41 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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I dont think so:

Look again at the temps: See the difference between the very cold air over Maine...and the Gulf?

The storm will not go that deep into the cold:


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Old 12-16-2010, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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keep in mind folks, if you dont want to see snow just drive 50 miles inland. lol
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Old 12-16-2010, 09:44 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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The storm will head out to sea...only far Cape Cod will see something (about a 10% chance as of right now).

I think it’s another green Christmas in the Tri-State area (lol).
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Old 12-16-2010, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
The storm will head out to sea...only far Cape Cod will see something (about a 10% chance as of right now).

I think it’s another green Christmas in the Tri-State area (lol).
And there it is...

The difference... I post what models are telling us...you post what your gut feeling is. The latter is a poor way of talking about weather but its fine to do just add "I think: to the beginning of it.

Last edited by Cambium; 12-16-2010 at 10:58 AM..
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Old 12-16-2010, 11:20 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
And there it is...

The difference... I post what models are telling us...you post what your gut feeling is. The latter is a poor way of talking about weather but its fine to do just add "I think: to the beginning of it.
Well, I guess I really want to say the models are all junk…but you would get mad if I did. Low pressure is moving in from the West Coast…weather moves from west to east…do I need a compute to tell me it will be ejected somewhere from North Carolina to Newfoundland. A five year old could tell me the same thing. You seem quite “pro-computer”. Well - I’m not. I’m still smarter than a machine.

…and this is a perfect example: Climatologically what enters the USA mainland around southern California (in an average zonal pattern)…leaves the mainland off South Carolina and heads out to sea. Period. Hooks, bends, trending motions …etc this far out is nothing more than crap in and crap out. I call it computer drama. The only unusual thing with this pattern is the very cold high (block) north of us. Maybe the storm will shoot out to sea, than hook around back west and give Maine some snow. At this hour, can the computer do any better? I 'm not saying for sure, what will or will not happen (maybe we'll get a big snow?)...but I'm so sick of people listening to the dribble of a machine.


By the way...how about those temps...New Orelans is now 73 F...Miami 71 F...Charleston, SC 56 F...Jacksnonville 64 F...Melbourne, FL 70 F, Corpus Christi 75 F...etc. I think Miami might crack 77 F today, Charleston 60 F...and New Orleans could hit 80 F:



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Old 12-16-2010, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Well, I guess I really want to say the models are all junk…but you would get mad if I did.
Well, That confirmed it for me. Thanks.

How do you think we get our hour by hour, 36hr, 5 day forecasts? I got a headache from myself so much.
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Old 12-16-2010, 01:40 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Well, That confirmed it for me. Thanks.

How do you think we get our hour by hour, 36hr, 5 day forecasts? I got a headache from myself so much.

Ahh, grasshopper – a conservative 48 hour forecast using some computer guidance is one thing…but the hype/spin and false drama associated with long range computer models is nothing more than marketing/media/or the personal bias of the forecaster (think AccuWeather/Weather Channel…etc)...added in . It’s too bad that they need to market the weather so much today…because with the advancement of the science weathercasters could really have become respected science folks…instead of silly cartoon characters . Ahh, grasshopper…sales and marketing - the route of all evil.

There was once a time that a weather forecaster had to know the real climatology of his nation/region, then using pressure patterns, upper air data, …etc - make a real forecast. Today the computer guidance (and the many busted forecasts) only underscores the lack of climatological knowledge out there…all with the aid of satellites and computers

Anyway, hey, how about them temps: 60 F in Charleston…72 F at this hour in Miami…New Orleans 75 F…Corpus is 80 F:



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