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Old 12-23-2010, 08:35 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,073 posts, read 56,513,895 times
Reputation: 12735

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3 Senarios: Details with link:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-new...torm_2010-12-20[/url]

Scenario 1: Hugging the East Coast


Scenario 2: Glancing Blow


Scenario #3: In the Middle
I tried to keep it simple with two scenarios, but I must consider a third track.
We're talking about a storm track that falls in between scenario 1 and 2. In this track, northeast North Carolina and eastern Virginia would first see some accumulating snow as the storm develops just offshore from the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

However, the I-95 cities of Baltimore, Washington and even Philadelphia would miss out on the heavy snow action almost entirely. Some snow and wind would graze the Mid-Atlantic coast. New York City would experience light to occasional moderate snow but miss out on the bull's-eye of heaviest snow. (Winds, of course, will still be quite fierce even without any snow.)

Where would that "bull's-eye" be? Far eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts. Yes, the cities of Providence and Boston would fall squarely in this heavy swath of snow. This is where 6 to 12 inches of snow (or even more) would be situated.

Senario 4 Bonus:
The storm goes out to sea then develops an upper level low around the back, it initiates a storm along the NJ Coast that pounds NYC & Philly with Heavy Snow Tuesday.
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Old 12-24-2010, 06:23 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 9,018,035 times
Reputation: 2117
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
3 Senarios: Details with link:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-new...torm_2010-12-20[/url]

Scenario 1: Hugging the East Coast


Scenario 2: Glancing Blow


Scenario #3: In the Middle
I tried to keep it simple with two scenarios, but I must consider a third track.
We're talking about a storm track that falls in between scenario 1 and 2. In this track, northeast North Carolina and eastern Virginia would first see some accumulating snow as the storm develops just offshore from the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

However, the I-95 cities of Baltimore, Washington and even Philadelphia would miss out on the heavy snow action almost entirely. Some snow and wind would graze the Mid-Atlantic coast. New York City would experience light to occasional moderate snow but miss out on the bull's-eye of heaviest snow. (Winds, of course, will still be quite fierce even without any snow.)

Where would that "bull's-eye" be? Far eastern Long Island, eastern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts. Yes, the cities of Providence and Boston would fall squarely in this heavy swath of snow. This is where 6 to 12 inches of snow (or even more) would be situated.

Senario 4 Bonus:
The storm goes out to sea then develops an upper level low around the back, it initiates a storm along the NJ Coast that pounds NYC & Philly with Heavy Snow Tuesday.

We still have two days to go before this system is even near the East Coast…but (and I know this is not what you want to hear)…I think the bulk of this storm will head out to sea.For most of the metro East Coast/Tri-State area it a miss...and I ‘m becoming increasingly convinced even to our north (New England/Boston northward) only a minimal snow will occur.

Several things are now working against the storm: The biggest thing is that there looks to be no phasing of the two systems (the storm itself now over far west Texas…while the other storm is in the upper Midwest). It looks like the northern feature will outpace the southern storm and will reach the East Coast more quickly. The end result is a storm that doesn't phase (or it’s too late in the game when it finally does). The trough axis is now almost certain to be too far east (this shoots the storm out to sea), so once again the models created a perfect synoptic situation that rarely occurs in the real world. In the end …it really will be another miss for most of the East Coast. Only New England (Massachusetts northward) now has a real chance of seeing anything now.

The bigger news is the block is collapsing…and so is the cold in the coming weeks. So as we head into the last day of December and into January and the middle of meteorological winter…temps will moderate greatly in much of the eastern USA. So I think there will be MORE moisture…than we have had so far this winter…but there will be much LESS cold air to work with. By next weekend (New Years) temps be fairly nice on much of the East Coast...meaning highs around 35 - 40 F in the Tri-State area... closer to near 60 F in South Carolina….and upper 70’s F in Florida as the month comes to a close.

Merry X Mass
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Old 12-24-2010, 07:27 AM
 
Location: Quiet Corner Connecticut
1,335 posts, read 2,990,276 times
Reputation: 447
Until I see otherwise, I'm seeing this storm similar as the one last weekend. I was happy about that, got to go to Milford rather than sit home on Sunday. In this case, I can get to work without problems Monday morning.


That last storm which missed Connecticut: here we got a dusting Monday night. My friend in Dartmouth MA got about a foot.
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Old 12-24-2010, 07:46 AM
 
Location: The South
17,807 posts, read 24,595,032 times
Reputation: 6464
I see it missing us too, which is why I was laughing at Gil Simmons (by far, the biggest drama queen of meterologists - can't stand the guy) when he was predicting a possible blizzard for Christmas night 6 days in advance.

Question for Cambium - where can I go to view these weather models that you keep posting?
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Old 12-24-2010, 08:46 AM
 
5,065 posts, read 14,275,754 times
Reputation: 3538
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidyankee764 View Post
I see it missing us too, which is why I was laughing at Gil Simmons (by far, the biggest drama queen of meterologists - can't stand the guy) when he was predicting a possible blizzard for Christmas night 6 days in advance.

Question for Cambium - where can I go to view these weather models that you keep posting?
I'm not fond of him either, I try to avoid watching him altogether. His overuse of the term "folks" is like fingernails down a chalkboard to me.
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Old 12-24-2010, 09:04 AM
 
Location: The South
17,807 posts, read 24,595,032 times
Reputation: 6464
Quote:
Originally Posted by andthentherewere3 View Post
I'm not fond of him either, I try to avoid watching him altogether. His overuse of the term "folks" is like fingernails down a chalkboard to me.
What really made me sick about him was how flirty he was with "Dez" before she went on her larceny spree. It was pretty annoying (and corny) to watch. Thank God for the new traffic girl. I like her. As for Gil, hopefully he'll move to another station in the upper midwest where his excitement for crazy weather won't scare 3 million people.
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Old 12-24-2010, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,073 posts, read 56,513,895 times
Reputation: 12735
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidyankee764 View Post
I see it missing us too, which is why I was laughing at Gil Simmons (by far, the biggest drama queen of meterologists - can't stand the guy) when he was predicting a possible blizzard for Christmas night 6 days in advance.

Question for Cambium - where can I go to view these weather models that you keep posting?
Model Analyses and Forecasts

Maps : Weather Underground

Meteocentre.com's NWP maps
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Old 12-24-2010, 09:58 AM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
2,527 posts, read 2,752,078 times
Reputation: 1340
As I had suspected...Bust #3 for CT, with few prospects for 1st half of January...

Had to come out to my parents' home in Indiana to experience a true white Christmas. Already one of the snowiest Decembers on record for Indy with another 2 - 4" expected tonight.
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Old 12-24-2010, 10:01 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,073 posts, read 56,513,895 times
Reputation: 12735
::UPDATE ON DECEMBER 27TH STORM::

More headaches. I might just do what I did as a kid... look outside that day and see what is happening. LOL

Last night models had a West trend..Just an hour ago GFS model has the low strengthening off Carolina coast and then a 977mb Low off the coast of Long Island bringing Blizzard back into picture for I-95 from North Carolina to Boston.

Fun times are here for sure. Back and forth we go...oh so close!!
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Old 12-24-2010, 10:55 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
73,073 posts, read 56,513,895 times
Reputation: 12735
::CORRECTION ON LAST RUNS::

Call my cardiologist. Errors in the initilizing now we have to disregard the last 2 models that shows heavy snows for us. Dear lord.

INITIALIZATION ERRORS IN NUMEROUS DIAGNOSTIC
QUANTITIES...INCLUDING HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS/RH...ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 12Z NAM/GFS WITH SMALL BUT LIKELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA ALONG WITH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WITH THESE AREAS ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY RESO...LVED OR PREDICTED WELL BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS...THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION...WITH THE RECOMMENDATION TO FOLLOW CONTINUITY...WITH THE FINAL OUTCOME MOST BELIEVED TO LIE BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF MEAN/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO CONSIDERED USEFUL TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. THIS APPROACH DISREGARDS THE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPER AND WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 12Z GFS REGARDING THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z NAM WHICH LIES NEAR THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW.
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