[Cambium]

This is the guy wavehunter said he hypes storms up. LOL Looks very conservative or reality based to me. In fact NOAA looks to be hyping the storm with 16 inches in the city and across Long Island.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Whats even more funny is that Heat Miser is in the wrong part of the country this year.

More then 3 times the normal snowfall of 3.6" fell in December.

The average temperature last month was 31.3 degrees, which is nearly four degrees (-3.8) below the normal of 35.1 degrees.

We had 30 of the 31 days where the lows were below 32.
We had 8 Days where the high temps were beloiw 32.

The coldest temperature last month was 6 degrees on December 10, while the temperature reached as high as 59 degrees on December 1.

Over four inches (4.09") of liquid fell last month, well above the 3.47" normal for December. However, there were only five days overall with measured precipitation. Over two inches (2.10) of rain fell on December 12, while over an inch (1.15)

I think you're basing your numbers on Bridgeport, which makes sense, but if it's based on this: http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx (click "preliminary monthly data" then "archived data" then "December 2010" then "Bridgeport CT") then it shows that it was 15-deg on the 10th, not 6. Maybe it was 6 in Hartford? The other numbers (i.e. the 31.3 average temp) jive with this link.

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Well of course, one can spin that the other way too: I can remember this past summer you groaning that it was too hot and humid around the Tri-State area. It hit over 85 F on 88 days this summer (lol) Also, November was ABOVE normal in warmth. Weather will always balance itself out in the end.

As too the small snow event this weekend....A think my forcecast of 3 to 6 inches is on target. However, here was an interesting morning discussion: Is it me or does even NOAA seem to be unsure of what will happen:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
654 AM EST THU JAN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TEENS AND LOW
20S...WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE 5 BOROUGHS OF NYC. WARM AIR
ADVECTION CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN AND ITS EXPECTED THAT EARLY MORNING SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS WERE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH A POORLY MIXED CLOUDY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS EVENING...SO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A STEADIER LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...THUS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGHER IMPACT AND MORE CHALLENGING SETUP ON FRIDAY...WITH AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE DELMARVA. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE OCEANIC LOW GOING
TOO FAR EAST FOR A DIRECT HIT. THEY ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROUGH...WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE
OCEAN IS DRAWN BACK OVER A SLOW MOVING CONVERGENCE BAND.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NEAR AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE THIS CONVERGENCE SETS UP...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT PLACEMENT IS THE MOST DIFFICULT ELEMENT TO PREDICT.

AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN WIDESPREAD...LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS BECOMES STRONGER. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD CONSTITUTE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW WOULD BRING THOSE AREAS INTO WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS).

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND SNOW AMOUNT...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE CWA...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS COULD EITHER BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING ONCE IT IS EVIDENT WHERE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL...OR CONVERTED INTO AN ADVISORY WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BEGIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON RUSH.

ADDING TO THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...THIS MODEL
ALSO HAS A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT...WITH 18 INCHES IN THE
BRONX...AND 3 ON STATEN ISLAND!! THE GFS AND EC...AND MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...AND WIDELY
VARYING DISTRIBUTIONS.

TO ADD YET ANOTHER PIECE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE
TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR ENOUGH
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT.


Lol. I think you might want to wait till it's actually snowing for this one

I think you're right, I saw that discussion, wow talk about uncertainty! Sounds like one of those Lake Effect events up in Buffalo or Syracuse.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

I think you're basing your numbers on Bridgeport, which makes sense, but if it's based on this: National Weather Service Climate (click "preliminary monthly data" then "archived data" then "December 2010" then "Bridgeport CT") then it shows that it was 15-deg on the 10th, not 6. Maybe it was 6 in Hartford? The other numbers (i.e. the 31.3 average temp) jive with this link.




I think you're right, I saw that discussion, wow talk about uncertainty! Sounds like one of those Lake Effect events up in Buffalo or Syracuse.

Also, I really think they are unsure about what it is going to take to overcome all the dry air around. We are right smack in the middle of really low dew points. Remember what happend last time...the radar showed snow falling for hours but it never reached to ground, it took hours for the air mass to moisten up (and that was a 970 mb low). So I think it will really be touch and go with this system.

Also one other note...I know this has truned into a hate/love winter (tounge and cheek, of course)...but from my perspective (not really a fan of snow) we have done quite nicely in the Tri-State area since late November when the cold season started. Using NWS Bridgeport data:

November had a paltry 0.4 inches..

December had no measurable snow until December 26th...

Much (in some places all) the snow cover was gone by December 30th...

NO measurable snow the first 6 days of January.

Not too bad for us "heat misers"

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Also, I really think they are unsure about what it is going to take to overcome all the dry air around. We are right smack in the middle of really low dew points. Remember what happend last time...the radar showed snow falling for hours but it never reached to ground, it took hours for the air mass to moisten up (and that was a 970 mb low). So I think it will really be touch and go with this system.

Also one other note...I know this has truned into a hate/love winter (tounge and cheek, of course)...but from my perspective (not really a fan of snow) we have done quite nicely in the Tri-State area since late November when the cold season started. Using NWS Bridgeport data:

November had a paltry 0.4 inches..

December had no measurable snow until December 26th...

Much (in some places all) the snow cover was gone by December 30th...

NO measurable snow the first 6 days of January.

Not too bad for us "heat misers"

Whatever I touch...STARTS TO MELT IN MY CLUTCH!!!! I'm too much

Jay forgive me

[jp03]

Originally Posted by jp03

Whatever I touch...STARTS TO MELT IN MY CLUTCH!!!! I'm too much

Jay forgive me

Boy timing of the storm for you guys tomorrow could not be worse. I miss the snow alot , don't miss commuting in it.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

Whatever I touch...STARTS TO MELT IN MY CLUTCH!!!! I'm too much

Jay forgive me

Since we all know you’re a winter fan…your forgiven

JP/Cambium:

…their Mister White Christmas
Their Mister Snow
Their Mister Icicle
Their Mister Ten Below
Friends call them Snow Miser
What ever they touch
Turns to snow in their clutch
There too much!

Jay sorry. I could help myself.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Since we all know you’re a winter fan…your forgiven

JP/Cambium:

…their Mister White Christmas
Their Mister Snow
Their Mister Icicle
Their Mister Ten Below
Friends call them Snow Miser
What ever they touch
Turns to snow in their clutch
There too much!

Jay sorry. I could help myself.

Thats the spirit!

[Cambium]

Its going to be wild tomorrow...keep an eye on the radar... One town will have 3 inches but another neighboring town can have 8....

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

Thats the spirit!

Not really (lol).

I only feel the "sprit" on a June day when it's 83 F in Central Park, the dew point is 67 F...and the Atlantic from Rhode Island to Miami is over 80 F...and all I can see in the distance is this:



East Beach, RI by the way.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Not really (lol).

I only feel the "sprit" on a June day when it's 83 F in Central Park, the dew point is 67 F...and Atlantic from Rhode Island to Miami is over 80 F...and all I can see in the distance is this:



East Beach, RI by the way.

I like the beach and warmth too... in SUMMER Winter is for cold and snow.