[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Coming down a hill on the Merrit I saw smoke up ahead...thought it was a car accident...As I got closer firetrucks were there..still thinking accident...I get closer and they have a fire extinguisher putting out flames in the center grass area....Its getting bad out there. We're in moderate drought now. no rain in forecast for another week! ...I dont call tomorrow rain...its a sprinkle.

I see smoke in Branford way to the Northwest toward Westville. I heard on the scanner that there is a big fire in Seymour - I can only guess that's what it is.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Its hilarious seeing the 10 day forecast for the past 4 days...Wednesdays temps started at 72/65, then each day they kept dropping it... why dont they just listen to me? LOL

Today they have wednesday and wednesday night at 68/50.... They're getting closer... I think they're starting to realize it. LOL

I think we're going to see 58 for the high and 41 for the low.. Some towns might see 38!

I called this back on September 8th while forecasts still showed 70's all week....

Get your sweatshirts & firewood ready.

OKX is showing 71/55 for Central Park. I realize even in lower FFC it's a little colder but not THAT much colder (like maybe for them it's the 68/50 you say they have....I'm assuming you looked up Stamford or Norwalk or Bridgeport on OKX's site). 58/41 sounds like maybe (and a big maybe!) for the Litchfield Hills or the Quiet Corner.......I know the differences are bigger with the morning low so I'd believe the 38-41 much more than I would the high of 58.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Its hilarious seeing the 10 day forecast for the past 4 days...Wednesdays temps started at 72/65, then each day they kept dropping it... why dont they just listen to me? LOL

Today they have wednesday and wednesday night at 68/50.... They're getting closer... I think they're starting to realize it. LOL

I think we're going to see 58 for the high and 41 for the low.. Some towns might see 38!

I called this back on September 8th while forecasts still showed 70's all week....

Get your sweatshirts & firewood ready.

Cause if they listened to you all of Connecticut would have evacuated from Earl...

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Cause if they listened to you all of Connecticut would have evacuated from Earl...

How do you figure? Find me the post where I said it was "going to" hit CT. There's a book on Amazon called "reading posts for dummies" Check it out.

[Lowerdeck]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

58/41 sounds like maybe (and a big maybe!) for the Litchfield Hills or the Quiet Corner.......I know the differences are bigger with the morning low so I'd believe the 38-41 much more than I would the high of 58.

Down to 65 here for Wed, but even at peak it was 69. It hasn't gone down drastically.

We do need the rain too, didn't get terribly much from Earl up here. New London County got more.

[Cambium]

Looking at the radar it is so shocking to see the dry air win the battle...Its like there's a wall in place north of Jersey.... If we dont get rain today or tomorrow...I dont see any in the forecast for another week+ !!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Its hilarious seeing the 10 day forecast for the past 4 days...Wednesdays temps started at 72/65, then each day they kept dropping it... why dont they just listen to me? LOL

Today they have wednesday and wednesday night at 68/50.... They're getting closer... I think they're starting to realize it. LOL

I think we're going to see 58 for the high and 41 for the low.. Some towns might see 38!

I called this back on September 8th while forecasts still showed 70's all week....

Get your sweatshirts & firewood ready.

Now they got 66/48 as the low Wednesday.. Getting closer! lol Its 66 right now and it feels like the cooler air is prevailing and the trend is reversing where the colder air will be stronger than the hotter air we will get.. I hope this trend stays in place for the next 5 months. Snow! Then again...that Dry Wall (not to be confused with sheetrock) needs to lighten up (not to be confused with personality)

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

How do you figure? Find me the post where I said it was "going to" hit CT. There's a book on Amazon called "reading posts for dummies" Check it out.

A quote from the Earl post....

"Here's where one model puts Earl on Tuesday. Man this is going to be close. I think either way we need to prepare for AT LEAST Tropical Winds and rain this coming weekend".

HAahhaa,,,if that had hit you woulda taken credit for forecasting it in a millisecond! Throw stuff out and when something sticks rave how dead on you are... But when it doesn't slink away to the next storm...Cmon Cambium..

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by jp03

A quote from the Earl post....

"Here's where one model puts Earl on Tuesday. Man this is going to be close. I think either way we need to prepare for AT LEAST Tropical Winds and rain this coming weekend".

HAahhaa,,,if that had hit you woulda taken credit for forecasting it in a millisecond! Throw stuff out and when something sticks rave how dead on you are... But when it doesn't slink away to the next storm...Cmon Cambium..

I’m not dissing the NHC here (or trying be on Cambium’s side) so just take this comment for what it is…but in the end…forecasts beyond 72 hours from the NHC are not so great either. NHC said that Earl would not come close enough to pose a threat or impact the Leeward Island. They were wrong: Earl lashed (though not severely) the northern Leeward Islands with winds near hurricane force, heavy seas, and torrential rain.

Then NHC told us four days before Earl got to a position just east of the Bahamas that it would skirt the US East Coast. Well, that is not much of an earth-shattering forecast: The track east of the Bahamas then sweeping northwest, north/northwest, then north-northeast, then northeast (the parabolic recurve ) is pretty easy and safe to make (give a ninth-grader the same info and historical storm tracks , and he/she would come to the same conclusion). Cambium (and myself, maybe to just a lesser extent)…looked at the position of the trough coming east and thought that maybe this feature would not make it in time (I was also playing the card of the odds of a tropical cyclone strike are high in the region due to no landfalls in 19 years).

Yes…99% of tropical cyclones curve northeast away from the US mainland between Virginia Beach, VA and Long Island. It’s not much of a vindication to say that happened again. That’s like me playing a pickup game of basketball with Michael Jordon…and saying I’m betting he’ll probably win. I challenge anyone (or any computer model) to tell what path a tropical cyclone will take when it’s 1000 miles east of San Salvador Island. Beyond 72-96 hours - it’s really just a estimate using historical storm tracks.


PS…and to be fair to Cambium’s last line (we should AT LEAST have Tropical Winds and rain this coming weekend)…we’ll those of us between Old Saybrook and the CT/RI state line (far eastern coastal Connecticut) we had two squalls with winds in the 20-30 mph range…and torrential rain! People that Friday night on I-95 near exit 90 were hiding under the underpass rather than drive in the intense rain. I could not see the front end of my front hood for about 30 minutes. Yea, no tropical storm in Connecticut…but it was close.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

PS…and to be fair to Cambium’s last line (we should AT LEAST have Tropical Winds and rain this coming weekend)…we’ll those of us between Old Saybrook and the CT/RI state line (far eastern coastal Connecticut) we had two squalls with winds in the 20-30 mph range…and torrential rain! People that Friday night on I-95 near exit 90 were hiding under the underpass rather than drive in the intense rain. I could not see the front end of my front hood for about 30 minutes. Yea, no tropical storm in Connecticut…but it was close.

Yeap...but some people think whatever is happening in their backyard is happening all over the state. LOL and that post was probably one of the first when the models were still bringing it close to shore....nothing wrong with preparing....

If I said "We're gonna get hit, evacuate" then he has a point. LMAO...I would never go out on a limb like that until <48hrs before hurricane comes.

moving on....Snowicane?