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Old 02-22-2011, 09:33 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619

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:Friday February 25th Storm Update:

There is only 1 model showing an all rain event.
There are a couple showing rain to snow.
There is 2 showing all snow.

The latest one just coming out trended South & East(sound familiar from last storm?) but quicker moving. Gives Stratford area .47qpf which is about half foot of snow. Starts Friday morning ends Friday night.

Sorry guys...I'm just reporting what Im seeing, dont yell at the messenger.

The good news is there is no High Pressure North of us so the cold air will have a harder time filtering into the storm; but with the storm trending like this, it wont matter because the warm air wont be making it North enough.

Second good news is the BULK of the precip will be in the warm section...

So ask yourself, *do you want flooding rains OR *half foot of snow?
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Old 02-22-2011, 04:16 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
3 days away its 1 model vs the world. That one model is the one with all rain for us..

You want my personal thoughts and usually I hate doing this...

It will rain at first then change to moderate snows. Places I-84 and North will see 4-6" Merrit South 2-4"...after the rain.

Edit: Sunday is Snow For Sure. 1-3"

Last edited by Cambium; 02-22-2011 at 04:32 PM..
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Old 02-22-2011, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,292 posts, read 18,872,835 times
Reputation: 5126
Latest OKX discussion seems to favor "Heat Miser" on Friday this time (though not completely):

ALL ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THU...AND THE LOW TAKING
A TRACK FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY AREA THU NIGHT NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A PRIMARILY RAIN
EVENT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WITH A WEAKER LOW
MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA FRIDAY MORNING...TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK
OF 40N...70W FRI EVE. THIS SCENARIO HAS NO SUPPORT FROM THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE...WITH THE 12Z GFES AND NAM WRF SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER...AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE A PRIMARILY
SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR SNOW MIX THU NIGHT...
THEN CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY. PREFERRED A LOW TRACK RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.
ALL ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THU...AND THE LOW TAKING
A TRACK FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY AREA THU NIGHT NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A PRIMARILY RAIN
EVENT. THE 12Z GFS IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WITH A WEAKER LOW
MOVING OFF THE DELMARVA FRIDAY MORNING...TO NEAR THE BENCHMARK
OF 40N...70W FRI EVE. THIS SCENARIO HAS NO SUPPORT FROM THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE...WITH THE 12Z GFES AND NAM WRF SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER...AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE A PRIMARILY
SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH A RAIN OR SNOW MIX THU NIGHT...
THEN CHANGING TO ALL RAIN FRIDAY. PREFERRED A LOW TRACK RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA.
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Old 02-22-2011, 04:45 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,121 posts, read 5,084,587 times
Reputation: 4100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
:Friday February 25th Storm Update:

There is only 1 model showing an all rain event.
There are a couple showing rain to snow.
There is 2 showing all snow.

The latest one just coming out trended South & East(sound familiar from last storm?) but quicker moving. Gives Stratford area .47qpf which is about half foot of snow. Starts Friday morning ends Friday night.

Sorry guys...I'm just reporting what Im seeing, dont yell at the messenger.

The good news is there is no High Pressure North of us so the cold air will have a harder time filtering into the storm; but with the storm trending like this, it wont matter because the warm air wont be making it North enough.

Second good news is the BULK of the precip will be in the warm section...

So ask yourself, *do you want flooding rains OR *half foot of snow?
To belatedly weigh in on your question...would prefer the snow at this point. Very nervous about the basement flooding!
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Old 02-22-2011, 05:08 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by rajmelk View Post
To belatedly weigh in on your question...would prefer the snow at this point. Very nervous about the basement flooding!
I'm afraid we'll have no choice for next weeks March 1st storm as warm air will drive North and we'll have one nasty flooding situation on hand. My River over flood stage thought still remains. Best thing to do is create a channel that leads away from your foundation for water to travel
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Old 02-22-2011, 09:28 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
:Friday Storm Update: 3 days away

Get ready for flooding! 12 hours of moderate rain then 6 hours of a teaser snowfall to say "you miss me?" Latest model starting to go the way of a Track right over us and not south like Mondays storm. Well over an inch of rain and then a couple inches of snow Friday night.

Litchfield, Hartford, Tolland, and Windham counties look very close to being Ice or mostly snow.. I'm Still sticking with half foot for those areas..
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Old 02-23-2011, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
Gees. Everyone finally getting 40 temps and rain coming and no posts? I guess you like the snowstorm talk. lol JK.

Friday Storm Update:

Latest has Stratford as .91 Rain Friday, 1" snow Friday Evening.
Hartford: 1.10" Rain Friday, 3" snow

Future Storm Update:

Sunday - Snow 1-3"
Tuesday - Rain
Saturday 5th - Rain
Thursday 10th - ((((CLOSE EYES))))............ A foot of snow.

Just calling what I see. Dont be mad at me.
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Old 02-23-2011, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Northwest Hills, CT
352 posts, read 780,536 times
Reputation: 242
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Future Storm Update:

Sunday - Snow 1-3"
Tuesday - Rain
Saturday 5th - Rain
Thursday 10th - ((((CLOSE EYES))))............ A foot of snow.

Just calling what I see. Dont be mad at me.
noooo, not the 10th! I'm flying out of Bradley that afternoon! Can you move it to the 11th?
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Old 02-23-2011, 01:36 PM
 
Location: Montreal -> CT -> MA -> Montreal -> Ottawa
17,330 posts, read 33,013,815 times
Reputation: 28903
Quote:
Originally Posted by KaoCT View Post
noooo, not the 10th! I'm flying out of Bradley that afternoon! Can you move it to the 11th?
HAHAHAHA!! I was just about to post that I have a party to go to on March 5 and I wanted to know if he could move the rain out to the 6th.
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Old 02-23-2011, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
Reputation: 16619
LOL...Love the humor. Awesome. This far out the date is basically a time frame. We just need to see if a storm is there consistantly. So far its 3 runs for the 10th and pretty consistant for the 5th although the 5th is slower and arrives on the 6th. The 10th could be anywhere from 9th - 11th at this point in time.
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